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NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 50.9%; September Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 55.1%; New Orders Index at 54.2% Employment Index at 44.3%

Dépèche transmise le 5 octobre 2009 par Business Wire

NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 50.9%; September Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 55.1%; New Orders Index at 54.2% Employment Index at 44.3%

NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 50.9%; September Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 55.1%; New Orders Index at 54.2% Employment Index at 44.3%

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector expanded in September, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Hotels Corporation. “The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 50.9 percent in September, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 48.4 percent registered in August, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector after 11 consecutive months of contraction. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 3.8 percentage points to 55.1 percent. This is the second consecutive month this index has reflected growth since September 2008. The New Orders Index increased 4.3 percentage points to 54.2 percent, and the Employment Index increased 0.8 percentage point to 44.3 percent. The Prices Index decreased 14.3 percentage points to 48.8 percent in September, indicating a significant reversal and decrease in prices paid from August. According to the NMI, five non-manufacturing industries reported growth in September. Even with the overall month-over-month growth reflected in the report this month, respondents’ comments vary by industry and remain mixed about business conditions and the overall economy.

This month, we asked a special question with regard to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Fifteen of the 18 non-manufacturing industries expect to derive some benefit from the program, and 14 non-manufacturing industries responded that they expect their companies to see some benefit.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)

The five industries reporting growth in September based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Construction; and Wholesale Trade. The 13 industries reporting contraction in September — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Public Administration; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; and Transportation & Warehousing.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “Sales are very steady and have risen some each month in the past six months. The bottom is now here.” (Construction)
  • “Economic recovery turnaround has begun in the financial services sector; however, cautious expense management is still practiced.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Lack of capital available for new project development.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “Continue to see signs of slow recovery, but customers are still putting orders off until the beginning of 2010.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Inconsistent … just when things seem to be settling a bit, a new set of pressures develops.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Improvements seen in prices available for natural gas and other fuels.” (Educational Services)

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS(a)
SEPTEMBER 2009

     
Index Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing

Series
Index
Sept.

 

Series
Index
August

 

Percent
Point
Change

 

Direction

 

Rate of
Change

 

Trend(b)
(Months)

Series
Index
Sept.

 

Series
Index
August

 

Percent
Point
Change

 
NMI/PMI 50.9 48.4 +2.5 Growing From Contracting 1 52.6 52.9 -0.3
Business Activity/

Production

55.1 51.3 +3.8 Growing Faster 2 55.7 61.9 -6.2
New Orders 54.2 49.9 +4.3 Growing From Contracting 1 60.8 64.9 -4.1
Employment 44.3 43.5 +0.8 Contracting Slower 17 46.2 46.4 -0.2
Supplier Deliveries 50.0 49.0 +1.0 Unchanged From Faster 1 58.0 57.1 +0.9
Inventories 47.5 43.0 +4.5 Contracting Slower 13 42.5 34.4 +8.1
Prices 48.8 63.1 -14.3 Decreasing From Increasing 1 63.5 65.0 -1.5
Backlog of Orders 51.5 41.0 +10.5 Growing From Contracting 1 53.5 52.5 +1.0
New Export Orders 48.5 54.0 -5.5 Contracting From Growing 1 55.0 55.5 -0.5
Imports 51.5 49.0 +2.5 Growing From Contracting 1 52.0 49.5 +2.5
Inventory Sentiment 62.0 67.5 -5.5 Too High Slower 148 N/A N/A N/A
Customers’ Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 39.0 39.0 0.0

(a) Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

(b) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Canned Fruit; Cheese (2); Gasoline(c) (2); Milk; and Steel Products.

Commodities Down in Price

Gasoline(c); and Pork.

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities were reported in short supply for the third consecutive month.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

(c) Reported as both up and down in price.

SEPTEMBER 2009 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index)

In September, the NMI registered 50.9 percent, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector for the first time since August 2008. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

NMI HISTORY

          Month           NMI                     Month           NMI
 
Sep 2009 50.9 Mar 2009 40.8
Aug 2009 48.4 Feb 2009 41.6
Jul 2009 46.4 Jan 2009 42.9
Jun 2009 47.0 Dec 2008 40.1
May 2009 44.0 Nov 2008 37.4
Apr 2009 43.7 Oct 2008 44.6
Average for 12 months – 44.0

High – 50.9

Low – 37.4

Business Activity

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in September registered 55.1 percent, an increase of 3.8 percentage points when compared to the 51.3 percent registered in August. Eight industries reported increased business activity, and eight industries reported decreased activity for the month of September. Two industries reported no change from August. Comments from respondents include: “More business development activity” and “Increased demand for service.”

The industries reporting growth of business activity in September — listed in order — are: Mining; Construction; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Information; and Wholesale Trade. The industries reporting decreased business activity in September — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; and Utilities.

Business Activity           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Sep 2009 25 56 19 55.1
Aug 2009 28 44 28 51.3
Jul 2009 19 53 28 46.1
Jun 2009 28 50 22 49.8

New Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in September after 11 consecutive months of contraction. The index registered 54.2 percent, which is an increase of 4.3 percentage points from the 49.9 percent registered in August. Comments from respondents include: “Increased traffic” and “Promotional activity.”

The seven industries reporting growth of new orders in September — listed in order — are: Utilities; Construction; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; and Educational Services. The eight industries reporting contraction of new orders in September — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Information; Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

New Orders           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Sep 2009 25 54 21 54.2
Aug 2009 27 46 27 49.9
Jul 2009 22 52 26 48.1
Jun 2009 29 45 26 48.6

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in September for the 20th time in the last 21 months. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for September registered 44.3 percent. This reflects an increase of 0.8 percentage point when compared to the 43.5 percent registered in August. Three industries reported increased employment, 12 industries reported decreased employment, and three industries reported unchanged employment compared to August. Comments from respondents include: “New business needs” and “Positions previously frozen are now approved to be filled.”

The industries reporting an increase in employment in September are: Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Educational Services. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in September — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Utilities; Public Administration; Information; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing.

Employment           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Sep 2009 13 60 27 44.3
Aug 2009 8 68 24 43.5
Jul 2009 13 61 26 41.5
Jun 2009 13 64 23 43.4

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50 percent in September, indicating supplier deliveries were unchanged in September when compared to August. A reading at 50 percent indicates an equal balance of non-manufacturing respondents reporting slower and faster deliveries from suppliers. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The five industries reporting slower deliveries in September are: Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The four industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in September are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Educational Services; and Transportation & Warehousing.

Supplier Deliveries           %Slower         %Same         %Faster         Index
 
Sep 2009 8 84 8 50.0
Aug 2009 7 84 9 49.0
Jul 2009 8 84 8 50.0
Jun 2009 3 86 11 46.0

Inventories

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index registered 47.5 percent in September, indicating that inventory levels contracted in September for the 13th consecutive month. Of the total respondents in September, 30 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Higher inventory level due to increased backorders” and “Higher due to reducing delivery frequency.”

The seven industries reporting an increase in inventories in September — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Other Services; Utilities; Construction; Finance & Insurance; and Retail Trade. The six industries reporting decreases in inventories in September — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; and Wholesale Trade.

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Inventories           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Sep 2009 20 55 25 47.5
Aug 2009 9 68 23 43.0
Jul 2009 18 58 24 47.0
Jun 2009 14 62