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U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI and Diffusion Indexes

Dépèche transmise le 27 janvier 2011 par Business Wire

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business^® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business^®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes are effective with the January 2011 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business^®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2011, and the January 2011 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business^®, which will be released on February 3, 2011.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes a year ahead (2011).

The X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indexes for 2007 through 2010, as well as the 2011 projected seasonal factors. The 2011 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2012. Projected seasonal factors for 2011 and revised seasonally adjusted indexes are shown below.

2011 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Manufacturing Indexes
(Prepared by G. McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)

	New			Supplier
	Orders	Production	Employment	Deliveries	Inventories

January 2011	0.944	0.977	0.948	0.964	0.992
February 2011	0.970	1.003	0.976	0.985	1.035
March 2011	1.051	0.971	0.992	0.990	1.033
April 2011	1.143	1.082	1.029	1.005	1.016
May 2011	1.118	1.075	1.049	1.024	0.996
June 2011	1.076	1.065	1.035	1.013	0.988
July 2011	1.026	0.995	1.038	1.051	0.974
August 2011	0.978	1.028	1.032	1.038	1.042
September 2011	0.998	0.996	0.985	1.021	1.000
October 2011	0.925	1.007	1.000	0.985	0.996
November 2011	0.890	0.910	0.975	0.971	0.963
December 2011	0.886	0.901	0.944	0.951	0.966

To compute the PMI:

1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment, and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3) Add all five index numbers together and divide by five.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

2011 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes

	Business Activity	New Orders	Employment	Prices

January 2011	0.890	0.924	0.881	0.985
February 2011	0.934	0.955	0.972	0.969
March 2011	1.055	0.991	1.015	1.033
April 2011	1.136	1.139	1.108	1.105
May 2011	1.072	1.038	1.102	1.063
June 2011	1.086	1.045	1.062	1.051
July 2011	0.981	0.996	1.067	1.068
August 2011	0.971	0.984	0.978	0.934
September 2011	0.989	0.974	0.954	0.945
October 2011	0.976	0.982	0.901	0.964
November 2011	0.952	1.010	1.002	0.944
December 2011	0.979	0.987	0.972	0.947

To compute the NMI:

1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for Business Activity, New Orders, and Employment to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3) Add all four index numbers together and divide by four.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

Revised Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2007-2010

		PMI	New Orders	Production	Employment	Supplier Deliveries	Inventories

Jan	2007	49.9	53.9	51.1	50.8	52.8	40.9
Feb	2007	52.0	56.5	54.6	52.1	51.5	45.4
Mar	2007	51.3	52.9	55.2	49.2	51.7	47.5
Apr	2007	52.6	56.7	56.6	52.8	50.4	46.3
May	2007	52.3	56.4	57.0	51.8	50.4	46.0
Jun	2007	52.4	56.8	59.5	50.9	49.4	45.4
Jul	2007	51.7	55.8	54.7	49.9	50.3	47.7
Aug	2007	50.2	53.9	53.5	49.1	49.6	44.7
Sep	2007	50.0	52.0	54.9	50.3	51.1	41.5
Oct	2007	50.9	55.6	49.9	51.5	51.5	45.8
Nov	2007	51.5	54.9	54.4	48.8	52.1	47.2
Dec	2007	49.0	47.4	48.8	48.9	53.9	46.0

Jan	2008	51.1	50.5	54.4	48.0	53.3	49.4
Feb	2008	48.9	51.2	50.8	46.6	50.5	45.5
Mar	2008	49.0	47.0	49.8	49.0	53.9	45.1
Apr	2008	48.8	45.4	49.7	46.6	53.9	48.2
May	2008	48.8	46.7	50.1	45.5	53.4	48.1
Jun	2008	49.0	47.5	48.8	43.7	54.6	50.5
Jul	2008	49.6	44.4	53.3	51.5	53.5	45.1
Aug	2008	48.0	46.5	49.2	46.5	49.4	48.5
Sep	2008	43.8	39.7	42.9	41.4	51.9	43.0
Oct	2008	39.0	33.6	33.6	34.2	49.9	43.7
Nov	2008	36.9	28.6	32.9	33.8	49.1	40.0
Dec	2008	33.3	23.7	26.3	30.6	46.4	39.3

Jan	2009	35.7	34.1	30.7	29.8	45.6	38.3
Feb	2009	36.0	34.9	35.9	26.4	45.9	36.7
Mar	2009	36.6	41.5	37.1	28.3	43.9	32.0
Apr	2009	39.9	45.1	40.7	35.0	44.9	34.0
May	2009	41.9	47.8	45.0	33.7	49.9	33.1
Jun	2009	44.7	48.9	51.8	40.7	50.8	31.3
Jul	2009	49.0	54.8	59.6	45.7	51.4	33.4
Aug	2009	51.4	62.9	59.4	44.8	55.6	34.5
Sep	2009	53.2	60.9	58.8	46.8	58.2	41.5
Oct	2009	55.8	60.5	61.9	52.5	57.5	46.7
Nov	2009	54.7	62.7	62.9	50.4	56.4	41.0
Dec	2009	56.4	66.4	61.8	53.2	57.5	43.0

Jan	2010	58.3	66.1	65.1	54.3	59.6	46.4
Feb	2010	57.1	61.9	58.8	57.3	60.0	47.3
Mar	2010	60.4	62.9	64.3	55.8	64.1	54.7
Apr	2010	59.6	63.6	66.4	58.7	59.8	49.7
May	2010	57.8	61.0	63.8	57.4	60.6	46.2
Jun	2010	55.3	57.0	59.6	55.6	57.7	46.6
Jul	2010	55.1	52.9	56.9	57.6	58.0	50.3
Aug	2010	55.2	53.7	57.2	58.2	55.9	50.9
Sep	2010	55.3	51.6	58.1	56.9	53.8	56.0
Oct	2010	56.9	59.9	61.4	57.9	52.3	53.2
Nov	2010	58.2	59.6	58.2	59.0	58.1	56.1
Dec	2010	58.5	62.0	63.0	58.9	56.7	51.8

The revised breakeven point for the overall economy is a PMI of 42.5 percent. A PMI over 42.5 percent indicates an expanding overall economy. A PMI below 42.5 percent indicates the overall economy is declining.

Revised Non-Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2007-2010

		NMI	Business Activity	New Orders	Employment	Prices
Jan	2007		57.9	56.0	54.2	57.4
Feb	2007		55.8	56.5	51.9	56.5
Mar	2007		52.8	53.9	51.4	63.0
Apr	2007		56.8	55.7	51.1	63.2
May	2007		58.1	57.0	51.8	63.3
Jun	2007		58.4	55.0	53.6	61.9
Jul	2007		57.4	55.2	51.6	59.7
Aug	2007		55.4	55.5	48.6	61.4
Sep	2007		53.9	53.4	52.4	67.4
Oct	2007		55.2	54.8	53.2	65.9
Nov	2007		56.0	51.9	52.6	73.6
Dec	2007		54.3	51.9	52.8	72.7

Jan	2008	45.3	42.0	44.9	45.3	71.0
Feb	2008	50.2	53.5	50.4	46.9	73.0
Mar	2008	49.6	51.4	50.8	47.3	71.9
Apr	2008	51.3	51.8	49.6	47.6	72.4
May	2008	50.7	52.1	52.2	47.3	75.4
Jun	2008	49.1	50.8	50.0	45.2	79.7
Jul	2008	49.8	50.5	49.3	45.8	76.8
Aug	2008	50.1	50.4	49.2	45.3	73.4
Sep	2008	49.8	50.5	50.7	44.5	73.6
Oct	2008	44.5	43.6	43.2	43.0	52.9
Nov	2008	37.6	34.5	35.0	31.5	36.6
Dec	2008	40.0	38.9	38.3	34.9	37.0

Jan	2009	43.3	44.2	40.9	36.4	41.5
Feb	2009	42.0	41.5	41.4	37.0	48.7
Mar	2009	41.2	44.4	40.1	32.3	39.7
Apr	2009	43.2	44.7	46.8	35.8	40.2
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