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U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI and Diffusion Indexes

Dépèche transmise le 27 janvier 2011 par Business Wire

U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI and Diffusion Indexes

U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI and Diffusion Indexes

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes are effective with the January 2011 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2011, and the January 2011 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®, which will be released on February 3, 2011.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes a year ahead (2011).

The X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indexes for 2007 through 2010, as well as the 2011 projected seasonal factors. The 2011 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2012. Projected seasonal factors for 2011 and revised seasonally adjusted indexes are shown below.

2011 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Manufacturing Indexes
(Prepared by G. McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343)
 
    New       Supplier  
Orders Production Employment Deliveries Inventories
 
January 2011 0.944 0.977 0.948 0.964 0.992
February 2011 0.970 1.003 0.976 0.985 1.035
March 2011 1.051 0.971 0.992 0.990 1.033
April 2011 1.143 1.082 1.029 1.005 1.016
May 2011 1.118 1.075 1.049 1.024 0.996
June 2011 1.076 1.065 1.035 1.013 0.988
July 2011 1.026 0.995 1.038 1.051 0.974
August 2011 0.978 1.028 1.032 1.038 1.042
September 2011 0.998 0.996 0.985 1.021 1.000
October 2011 0.925 1.007 1.000 0.985 0.996
November 2011 0.890 0.910 0.975 0.971 0.963

December 2011

0.886 0.901 0.944 0.951 0.966

To compute the PMI:

1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment, and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3) Add all five index numbers together and divide by five.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

2011 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes
         

Business
Activity

New
Orders

Employment Prices
 
January 2011 0.890 0.924 0.881 0.985
February 2011 0.934 0.955 0.972 0.969
March 2011 1.055 0.991 1.015 1.033
April 2011 1.136 1.139 1.108 1.105
May 2011 1.072 1.038 1.102 1.063
June 2011 1.086 1.045 1.062 1.051
July 2011 0.981 0.996 1.067 1.068
August 2011 0.971 0.984 0.978 0.934
September 2011 0.989 0.974 0.954 0.945
October 2011 0.976 0.982 0.901 0.964
November 2011 0.952 1.010 1.002 0.944
December 2011 0.979 0.987 0.972 0.947

To compute the NMI:

1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for Business Activity, New Orders, and Employment to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3) Add all four index numbers together and divide by four.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

Revised Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2007-2010
               
PMI

New
Orders

Production Employment

Supplier
Deliveries

Inventories
 

Jan

2007

49.9 53.9 51.1 50.8 52.8 40.9

Feb

2007

52.0 56.5 54.6 52.1 51.5 45.4

Mar

2007

51.3 52.9 55.2 49.2 51.7 47.5

Apr

2007

52.6 56.7 56.6 52.8 50.4 46.3

May

2007

52.3 56.4 57.0 51.8 50.4 46.0

Jun

2007

52.4 56.8 59.5 50.9 49.4 45.4

Jul

2007

51.7 55.8 54.7 49.9 50.3 47.7

Aug

2007

50.2 53.9 53.5 49.1 49.6 44.7

Sep

2007

50.0 52.0 54.9 50.3 51.1 41.5

Oct

2007

50.9 55.6 49.9 51.5 51.5 45.8

Nov

2007

51.5 54.9 54.4 48.8 52.1 47.2

Dec

2007

49.0 47.4 48.8 48.9 53.9 46.0
 

Jan

2008

51.1 50.5 54.4 48.0 53.3 49.4

Feb

2008

48.9 51.2 50.8 46.6 50.5 45.5

Mar

2008

49.0 47.0 49.8 49.0 53.9 45.1

Apr

2008

48.8 45.4 49.7 46.6 53.9 48.2

May

2008

48.8 46.7 50.1 45.5 53.4 48.1

Jun

2008

49.0 47.5 48.8 43.7 54.6 50.5

Jul

2008

49.6 44.4 53.3 51.5 53.5 45.1

Aug

2008

48.0 46.5 49.2 46.5 49.4 48.5

Sep

2008

43.8 39.7 42.9 41.4 51.9 43.0

Oct

2008

39.0 33.6 33.6 34.2 49.9 43.7

Nov

2008

36.9 28.6 32.9 33.8 49.1 40.0

Dec

2008

33.3 23.7 26.3 30.6 46.4 39.3
 

Jan

2009

35.7 34.1 30.7 29.8 45.6 38.3

Feb

2009

36.0 34.9 35.9 26.4 45.9 36.7

Mar

2009

36.6 41.5 37.1 28.3 43.9 32.0

Apr

2009

39.9 45.1 40.7 35.0 44.9 34.0

May

2009

41.9 47.8 45.0 33.7 49.9 33.1

Jun

2009

44.7 48.9 51.8 40.7 50.8 31.3

Jul

2009

49.0 54.8 59.6 45.7 51.4 33.4

Aug

2009

51.4 62.9 59.4 44.8 55.6 34.5

Sep

2009

53.2 60.9 58.8 46.8 58.2 41.5

Oct

2009

55.8 60.5 61.9 52.5 57.5 46.7

Nov

2009

54.7 62.7 62.9 50.4 56.4 41.0

Dec

2009

56.4 66.4 61.8 53.2 57.5 43.0
 

Jan

2010

58.3 66.1 65.1 54.3 59.6 46.4

Feb

2010

57.1 61.9 58.8 57.3 60.0 47.3

Mar

2010

60.4 62.9 64.3 55.8 64.1 54.7

Apr

2010

59.6 63.6 66.4 58.7 59.8 49.7

May

2010

57.8 61.0 63.8 57.4 60.6 46.2

Jun

2010

55.3 57.0 59.6 55.6 57.7 46.6

Jul

2010

55.1 52.9 56.9 57.6 58.0 50.3

Aug

2010

55.2 53.7 57.2 58.2 55.9 50.9

Sep

2010

55.3 51.6 58.1 56.9 53.8 56.0

Oct

2010

56.9 59.9 61.4 57.9 52.3 53.2

Nov

2010

58.2 59.6 58.2 59.0 58.1 56.1

Dec

2010

58.5 62.0 63.0 58.9 56.7 51.8

The revised breakeven point for the overall economy is a PMI of 42.5 percent. A PMI over 42.5 percent indicates an expanding overall economy. A PMI below 42.5 percent indicates the overall economy is declining.

Revised Non-Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2007-2010
           
NMI

Business
Activity

New
Orders

Employment Prices

Jan

2007

57.9 56.0 54.2 57.4

Feb

2007

55.8 56.5 51.9 56.5

Mar

2007

52.8 53.9 51.4 63.0

Apr

2007

56.8 55.7 51.1 63.2

May

2007

58.1 57.0 51.8 63.3

Jun

2007

58.4 55.0 53.6 61.9

Jul

2007

57.4 55.2 51.6 59.7

Aug

2007

55.4 55.5 48.6 61.4

Sep

2007

53.9 53.4 52.4 67.4

Oct

2007

55.2 54.8 53.2 65.9

Nov

2007

56.0 51.9 52.6 73.6

Dec

2007

54.3 51.9 52.8 72.7
 

Jan

2008

45.3 42.0 44.9 45.3 71.0

Feb

2008

50.2 53.5 50.4 46.9 73.0

Mar

2008

49.6 51.4 50.8 47.3 71.9

Apr

2008

51.3 51.8 49.6 47.6 72.4

May

2008

50.7 52.1 52.2 47.3 75.4

Jun

2008

49.1 50.8 50.0 45.2 79.7

Jul

2008

49.8 50.5 49.3 45.8 76.8

Aug

2008

50.1 50.4 49.2 45.3 73.4

Sep

2008

49.8 50.5 50.7 44.5 73.6

Oct

2008

44.5 43.6 43.2 43.0 52.9

Nov

2008

37.6 34.5 35.0 31.5 36.6

Dec

2008

40.0 38.9 38.3 34.9 37.0
 

Jan

2009

43.3 44.2 40.9 36.4 41.5

Feb

2009

42.0 41.5 41.4 37.0 48.7

Mar

2009

41.2 44.4 40.1 32.3 39.7

Apr

2009

43.2 44.7 46.8 35.8 40.2

May

200

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