Dépêches

September Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; PMI at 51.6%; Production, Employment and Inventories Growing; Supplier Deliveries Slower; New Orders Contracting

Dépèche transmise le 3 octobre 2011 par Business Wire

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September for the 26th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 28th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

“Global demand for semiconductors is down and maybe not yet ‘bottomed out.’ Inventory reduction activities are a priority.”

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The PMI registered 51.6 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from August, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 26th consecutive month, at a slightly higher rate. The Production Index registered 51.2 percent, indicating a return to growth after contracting in August for the first time since May of 2009. The New Orders Index remained unchanged from August at 49.6 percent, indicating contraction for the third consecutive month. The Backlog of Orders Index decreased 4.5 percentage points to 41.5 percent, contracting for the fourth consecutive month and reaching its lowest level since April 2009, when it registered 40.5 percent. Comments from respondents generally reflect concern over the sluggish economy, political and policy uncertainty in Washington, and forecasts of ongoing high unemployment that will continue to put pressure on demand for manufactured products.”

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 are reporting growth in September, in the following order: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The six industries reporting contraction in September — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “The economy continues to be a drag on our business outlook. We are trying to deal with new and additional FDA regulations which are costing significant dollars. It is hard to recoup any of these additional costs in our pricing levels without losing significant sales volumes.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Market is cautious, but still steady.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • “Global demand for semiconductors is down and maybe not yet ‘bottomed out.’ Inventory reduction activities are a priority.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Still strong automotive demand.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Orders remain consistent and steady — no sign of lower demand.” (Paper Products)
  • “Japan supply chain issues are over, but exchange rates and raw material prices are hurting our profit.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “We sense a weakening in demand, but it is not extreme at this point.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • “Overall, business is improving with a measurable uptick in orders this month. Part of that is due to pre-holiday season orders.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • “Business continues to be sluggish.” (Furniture & Related Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
SEPTEMBER 2011

                       

Index

Series
Index
Sep

Series
Index
Aug

Percentage
Point
Change

Direction

Rate of
Change

Trend(a)
(Months)

 
PMI 51.6 50.6 +1.0 Growing Faster 26
New Orders 49.6 49.6 0.0 Contracting Same 3
Production 51.2 48.6 +2.6 Growing From Contacting 1
Employment 53.8 51.8 +2.0 Growing Faster 24
Supplier Deliveries 51.4 50.6 +0.8 Slowing Faster 28
Inventories 52.0 52.3 -0.3 Growing Slower 2
Customers’ Inventories 49.0 46.5 +2.5 Too Low Slower 30
Prices 56.0 55.5 +0.5 Increasing Faster 27
Backlog of Orders 41.5 46.0 -4.5 Contracting Faster 4
Exports 53.5 50.5 +3.0 Growing Faster 27
Imports 54.5 55.5 -1.0 Growing Slower 25
OVERALL ECONOMY

 

Manufacturing Sector

Growing Faster 28
Growing Faster 26

(a) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum Products(b) (2); Copper Based Products (11); Corn (2); Electric/Electronic Components (3); Gasoline; Plastic Resins(b); Stainless Steel (2); Steel(b) (13); and Titanium Dioxide.

Commodities Down in Price

Aluminum; Aluminum Products(b); Copper (2); Corrugated Containers; Natural Gas (2); Plastic Products (2); Plastic Resins(b) (2); Rubber; and Steel(b) (5).

Commodities in Short Supply

Castings; and Electric/Electronic Components (9).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

(b) Reported as both up and down in price.

SEPTEMBER 2011 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

PMI

Manufacturing continued its growth in September as the PMI registered 51.6 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point when compared to August’s reading of 50.6 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 28th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 26th consecutive month. Holcomb stated, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through September (56.2 percent) corresponds to a 4.8 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for September (51.6 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 3.2 percent increase in real GDP annually.”

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

          Month                     PMI                               Month                     PMI
 
Sep 2011 51.6 Mar 2011 61.2
Aug 2011 50.6 Feb 2011 61.4
Jul 2011 50.9 Jan 2011 60.8
Jun 2011 55.3 Dec 2010 58.5
May 2011 53.5 Nov 2010 58.2
Apr 2011 60.4 Oct 2010 56.9

Average for 12 months – 56.6
High – 61.4
Low – 50.6

New Orders

ISM’s New Orders Index registered 49.6 percent in September, which represents the same rate as in August. This is the third consecutive month of contraction in the New Orders Index, following 24 months of growth. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The seven industries reporting growth in new orders in September — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The nine industries reporting decreases in new orders in September — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

New Orders           %Better         %Same         %Worse         Net         Index
 
Sep 2011 23 53 24 -1 49.6
Aug 2011 22 53 25 -3 49.6
Jul 2011 24 53 23 +1 49.2
Jun 2011 34 43 23 +11 51.6

Production

ISM’s Production Index registered 51.2 percent in September, which is an increase of 2.6 percentage points when compared to the August reading of 48.6 percent, and a return to growth following one month of contraction. An index above 51 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The nine industries reporting growth in production during the month of September — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The five industries reporting a decrease in production in September are: Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Production           %Better         %Same         %Worse         Net         Index
 
Sep 2011 23 56 21 +2 51.2
Aug 2011 19 62 19 0 48.6
Jul 2011 22 60 18 +4 52.3
Jun 2011 35 46 19 +16 54.5

Employment

ISM’s Employment Index registered 53.8 percent in September, which is 2 percentage points higher than the 51.8 percent reported in August. An Employment Index above 50.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, nine reported growth in employment in September in the following order: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in September — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; and Printing & Related Support Activities.

Employment           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Net         Index
 
Sep 2011 22 62 16 +6 53.8
Aug 2011 22 63 15 +7 51.8
Jul 2011 24 63 13 +11 53.5
Jun 2011 34 56 10 +24 59.9

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in September as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 51.4 percent, which is 0.8 percentage point higher than the 50.6 percent registered in August. This is the 28th consecutive month the Supplier Deliveries Index has been above 50 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The seven industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in September — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment. The four industries reporting faster deliveries in September are: Primary Metals; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. Seven industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in September compared to August.

Supplier Deliveries           %Slower         %Same         %Faster         Net         Index
 
Sep 2011 12 81 7 +5 51.4
Aug 2011 12 81 7 +5 50.6
Jul 2011 13 80 7 +6 50.4
Jun 2011 18 78 4 +14 56.3

Inventories

The Inventories Index registered 52 percent in September, 0.3 percentage point lower than the 52.3 percent reported in August. An Inventories Index greater than 42.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The eight industries reporting higher inventories in September — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. The seven industries reporting decreases in inventories in September — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Primary Metals.

Inventories           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Net         Index
 
Sep 2011 23 58 19 +4 52.0
Aug 2011 23 63 14 +9 52.3
Jul 2011 18 60 22 -4 49.3
Jun 2011 23 61 16 +7 54.1

Customers’ Inventories(c)

The ISM Customers’ Inventories Index registered 49 percent in September, 2.5 percentage points higher than in August when the index registered 46.5 percent. This is the 30th consecutive month the Customers’ Inventories Index has been below 50 percent, indicating that respondents believe their customers’ inventories are too low at this time.

The six manufacturing industries reporting customers’ inventories as being too high during September — listed in order — are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery. The seven industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Customers’ Inventories          

%
Reporting

   

%Too
High

   

%About
Right

   

%Too
Low

    Net     Index
 
Sep 2011 73 17 64 19 -2 49.0
Aug 2011 73 15 63 22 -7 46.5
Jul 2011 72 11 66 23 -12 44.0
Jun 2011 70 13 68 19 -6 47.0

Prices(c)

The ISM Prices Index registered 56 percent in September, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 55.5 percent reported in August. This is the fifth consecutive month the Prices Index has registered below 80 percent since December 2010, and is the 27th consecutive month the index has registered above 50 percent. While 26 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 14 percent reported paying lower prices, 60 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in August. A Prices Index above 49.4 percent, over time

Business Wire

Les plus belles photos d'avions
Douglas DC-7C Seven Seas (EC-BBT) Learjet 35A (D-CGFC) ATR72-600 (ATR72-212A) (F-WWEV) Airbus A330-303 (F-WWCN) ATR72-600 (ATR72-212A) (F-WWLV) Airbus A330-222 (CS-TOF)