Dépêches

NMI at 52.9%; October Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 53.8%; New Orders Index at 52.4%; Employment Index at 53.3%

Dépèche transmise le 3 novembre 2011 par Business Wire

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October for the 23rd consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

“[New orders increased] due to higher occupancy.”

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The NMI registered 52.9 percent in October, 0.1 percentage point lower than the 53 percent registered in September, and indicating continued growth at a slightly slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 3.3 percentage points to 53.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 27th consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 52.4 percent. The Employment Index increased 4.6 percentage points to 53.3 percent, indicating growth in employment after one month of contraction. The Prices Index decreased 4.8 percentage points to 57.1 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in October when compared to September. According to the NMI, eight non-manufacturing industries reported growth in October. Even though there is month-over-month growth in the Employment Index, respondents are still expressing concern over available labor resources and job growth. The continued strong push for inventory reduction by supply management professionals has resulted in contraction in the Inventories Index for the first time in eight months. Respondents’ comments are mixed and reflect concern about future business conditions.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)

The eight non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in October based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Retail Trade; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The eight industries reporting contraction in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Construction; and Wholesale Trade.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “Business is fairly flat, with a slight increase noted for the month.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Sales are increasing slightly, but are still lower than they have been historically.” (Public Administration)
  • “Some slowdown in the last month.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Business is steady, with a lot of price competition at the selling end of our business.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
  • “The poor economy is creating a drag on expected revenue through the end of this year.” (Information)
  • “Overall, we are still growing, but we are beginning to see some cautiousness reflected in our customers.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE

COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS(a)

OCTOBER 2011

     
Index Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing

Series
Index
Oct

 

Series
Index
Sep

 

Percent
Point
Change

 

Direction

 

Rate of
Change

 

Trend(b)
(Months)

Series
Index
Oct

 

Series
Index
Sep

 

Percent
Point
Change

 
NMI/PMI 52.9 53.0 -0.1 Growing Slower 23 50.8 51.6 -0.8
Business Activity/

Production

53.8 57.1 -3.3 Growing Slower 27 50.1 51.2 -1.1
New Orders 52.4 56.5 -4.1 Growing Slower 27 52.4 49.6 +2.8
Employment 53.3 48.7 +4.6 Growing From Contracting 1 53.5 53.8 -0.3
Supplier Deliveries 52.0 49.5 +2.5 Slowing From Faster 1 51.3 51.4 -0.1
Inventories 45.5 51.5 -6.0 Contracting From Growing 1 46.7 52.0 -5.3
Prices 57.1 61.9 -4.8 Increasing Slower 27 41.0 56.0 -15.0
Backlog of Orders 47.0 52.5 -5.5 Contracting From Growing 1 47.5 41.5 +6.0
New Export Orders 54.0 52.0 +2.0 Growing Faster 3 50.0 53.5 -3.5
Imports 48.0 47.5 +0.5 Contracting Slower 2 49.5 54.5 -5.0
Inventory Sentiment 57.5 59.0 -1.5 Too High Slower 173 N/A N/A N/A
Customers’ Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 43.5 49.0 -5.5

(a) Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

(b) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Airfares; Fluorescent Lamps; Food and Beverage (3); Freight Charges; Lighting Supplies; Oil Products; Paper Products (2); Plywood; PVC Products; Software Maintenance; and Steel Products (2).

Commodities Down in Price

Carbon Pipe; Copper; Copper Pipe; Fuel; and Gasoline (5).

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities are reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

OCTOBER 2011 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI

In October, the NMI registered 52.9 percent, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 23rd consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

NMI HISTORY

          Month                     NMI                             Month                     NMI
 
Oct 2011 52.9 Apr 2011 52.8
Sep 2011 53.0 Mar 2011 57.3
Aug 2011 53.3 Feb 2011 59.7
Jul 2011 52.7 Jan 2011 59.4
Jun 2011 53.3 Dec 2010 57.1
May 2011 54.6 Nov 2010 56.0

Average for 12 months – 55.2
High – 59.7
Low – 52.7

Business Activity

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in October registered 53.8 percent, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points when compared to the 57.1 percent registered in September. Nine industries reported increased business activity, and five industries reported decreased activity for the month of October. Comments from respondents include: “Aggressive calling on customers” and “More projects started.”

The industries reporting growth of business activity in October — listed in order — are: Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The industries reporting decreased business activity in October are: Educational Services; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Construction; and Utilities.

Business Activity           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Oct 2011 24 57 19 53.8
Sep 2011 27 59 14 57.1
Aug 2011 27 54 19 55.6
Jul 2011 30 50 20 56.1

New Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in October for the 27th consecutive month. The index registered 52.4 percent, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points from the 56.5 percent reported in September. Comments from respondents include: “Increased client activity” and “[New orders increased] due to higher occupancy.”

The 10 industries reporting growth of new orders in October — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Retail Trade; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries reporting contraction of new orders in October are: Educational Services; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; and Accommodation & Food Services.

New Orders           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Oct 2011 23 57 20 52.4
Sep 2011 25 60 15 56.5
Aug 2011 27 50 23 52.8
Jul 2011 24 55 21 51.7

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October after one month of contraction, as ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 53.3 percent. This reflects an increase of 4.6 percentage points when compared to the 48.7 percent registered in September. Eight industries reported increased employment, seven industries reported decreased employment, and three industries reported unchanged employment compared to September. Comments from respondents include: “New positions being created and filled due to increase in business activity and expansion” and “Slowly adding back support staff — still 25 percent below high-water mark of June 2008.”

The industries reporting an increase in employment in October — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Educational Services; Other Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Employment           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Oct 2011 16 64 20 53.3
Sep 2011 10 73 17 48.7
Aug 2011 16 69 15 51.6
Jul 2011 27 58 15 52.5

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52 percent in October, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 49.5 percent registered in September, indicating that supplier deliveries were slower in October. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The six industries reporting slower deliveries in October — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Other Services; Public Administration; Information; and Wholesale Trade. The two industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in October are: Utilities; and Finance & Insurance. Ten industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in October compared to September.

Supplier Deliveries           %Slower         %Same         %Faster         Index
 
Oct 2011 7 90 3 52.0
Sep 2011 6 87 7 49.5
Aug 2011 10 86 4 53.0
Jul 2011 7 87 6 50.5

Inventories

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index contracted in October, registering 45.5 percent. The index is 6 percentage points lower than the 51.5 percent reading that was reported in September. Of the total respondents in October, 27 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Working down inventory level” and “Adjusting to business level.”

The five industries reporting an increase in inventories in October are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The nine industries reporting decreases in inventories in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; and Wholesale Trade.

Inventories           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Oct 2011 14 63 23 45.5
Sep 2011 19 65 16 51.5
Aug 2011 21 65 14 53.5
Jul 2011 24 65 11 56.5

Prices

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased at a slower rate in October. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for October registered 57.1 percent, 4.8 percentage points lower than the 61.9 percent reported in September. In October, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 21 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 68 percent, and 11 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.

Nine non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid, in the following order: Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Mining; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Other Services. The six industries reporting a decrease in prices paid — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Construction; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Finance & Insurance.

Prices           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Oct 2011 21 68 11 57.1
Sep 2011 24 69 7 61.9
Aug 2011 28 64 8 64.2
Jul 2011 30 61 9 56.6

Backlog of Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index contracted in October for the fourth time in five months. The index registered 47 percent, 5.5 percentage points lower than the 52.5 percent reported in September. Of the total respondents in October, 38 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The three industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in October are: Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The seven industries reporting lower backlog of orders in October — listed in order — are: Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Public Administration; and Wholesale Trade. Eight industries reported no change in order backlogs for the month of October compared to September.

Backlog of Orders           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Oct 2011 10 74 16 47.0
Sep 2011 13 79 8 52.5
Aug 2011 14 67 19 47.5
Jul 2011 6 76 18 44.0

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the United States by domestically based personnel grew in October for the third consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index for October registered 54 percent, which is 2 percentage points higher than the 52 percent reported in September. Of the total respondents in October, 65 percent indicated they either do not perform,

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