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NMI at 52.6%; December Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 56.2%; New Orders Index at 53.2%; Employment Index at 49.4%

Dépèche transmise le 5 janvier 2012 par Business Wire

NMI at 52.6%; December Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 56.2%; New Orders Index at 53.2%; Employment Index at 49.4%

NMI at 52.6%; December Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 56.2%; New Orders Index at 53.2%; Employment Index at 49.4%

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 25th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

“Some additional proposal requests, but clients continue to delay decisions on capital spending. Expect first quarter 2012 activity to be sluggish.”

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The NMI registered 52.6 percent in December, 0.6 percentage point higher than the 52 percent registered in November, and indicating continued growth at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 56.2 percent, which is the same reading as reported in November, reflecting growth for the 29th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 0.2 percentage point to 53.2 percent. The Employment Index increased 0.5 percentage point to 49.4 percent, indicating contraction in employment for the third time in the last four months. The Prices Index decreased 1.3 percentage points to 61.2 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in December when compared to November. According to the NMI, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in December. Respondents’ comments are mixed and vary by industry and company. Economic growth continues to be slowed by the lag in employment.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)

The 11 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in December based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Information; Construction; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Educational Services; Mining; and Transportation & Warehousing. The seven industries reporting contraction in December — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “Year-end uptick in activity.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Business is stabilizing — some good signs in the private sector for commercial construction.” (Construction)
  • “Some additional proposal requests, but clients continue to delay decisions on capital spending. Expect first quarter 2012 activity to be sluggish.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Automotive industry growth seems to be outpacing the rest of the economy.” (Information)
  • “Demand increasing gradually.” (Wholesale Trade)
  • “Business is holding steady. Outlook for December and first quarter 2012 is good.” (Retail Trade)

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS(a)
DECEMBER 2011

       
Index Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing

Series
Index
Dec

 

Series
Index
Nov

 

Percent
Point
Change

 

Direction

 

Rate of
Change

 

Trend(b)
(Months)

Series
Index
Dec

 

Series
Index
Nov

 

Percent
Point
Change

 
NMI/PMI 52.6 52.0 +0.6 Growing Faster 25 53.9 52.7 +1.2
Business Activity/

Production

56.2 56.2 0.0 Growing Same 29 59.9 56.6 +3.3
New Orders 53.2 53.0 +0.2 Growing Faster 29 57.6 56.7 +0.9
Employment 49.4 48.9 +0.5 Contracting Slower 2 55.1 51.8 +3.3
Supplier Deliveries 51.5 50.0 +1.5 Slower From Unchanged 1 49.9 49.9 0.0
Inventories 48.5 52.5 -4.0 Contracting From Growing 1 47.1 48.3 -1.2
Prices 61.2 62.5 -1.3 Increasing Slower 29 47.5 45.0 +2.5
Backlog of Orders 45.5 48.0 -2.5 Contracting Faster 3 48.0 45.0 +3.0
New Export Orders 51.0 55.5 -4.5 Growing Slower 5 53.0 52.0 +1.0
Imports 54.0 48.5 +5.5 Growing From Contracting 1 54.0 49.0 +5.0
Inventory Sentiment 59.5 63.0 -3.5 Too High Slower 175 N/A N/A N/A
Customers’ Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 42.5 50.0 -7.5

(a) Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

(b) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Coffee; #1 Diesel Fuel; #2 Diesel Fuel (2); Food Products (2); Gloves (2); Medical Supplies; Professional Labor; Protein; and Steel.

Commodities Down in Price

Fuel (2); and Gasoline.

Commodities in Short Supply

#2 Diesel Fuel is the only commodity reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

DECEMBER 2011 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI

In December, the NMI registered 52.6 percent, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 25th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

NMI HISTORY

          Month                     NMI                               Month                     NMI
 
Dec 2011 52.6 Jun 2011 53.3
Nov 2011 52.0 May 2011 54.6
Oct 2011 52.9 Apr 2011 52.8
Sep 2011 53.0 Mar 2011 57.3
Aug 2011 53.3 Feb 2011 59.7
Jul 2011 52.7 Jan 2011 59.4

Average for 12 months – 54.5
High – 59.7
Low – 52.0

Business Activity

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in December registered 56.2 percent, the same percent registered in November. Eleven industries reported increased business activity, and six industries reported decreased activity for the month of December. Comments from respondents include: “End of year spending with remaining budgets” and “Seasonal increases, but no significant increases beyond that.”

The industries reporting growth of business activity in December — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Other Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; Mining; Public Administration; Construction; Wholesale Trade; and Accommodation & Food Services. The industries reporting decreased business activity in December — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

Business Activity           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Dec 2011 28 54 18 56.2
Nov 2011 26 55 19 56.2
Oct 2011 24 57 19 53.8
Sep 2011 27 59 14 57.1

New Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in December for the 29th consecutive month. The index registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the 53 percent reported in November. Comments from respondents include: “Increased requisitions” and “Year-end spending requests.”

The 10 industries reporting growth of new orders in December — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Construction; and Utilities. The four industries reporting contraction of new orders in December are: Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Accommodation & Food Services.

New Orders           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Dec 2011 24 57 19 53.2
Nov 2011 23 61 16 53.0
Oct 2011 23 57 20 52.4
Sep 2011 25 60 15 56.5

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in December for the third time in four months, as ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 49.4 percent. This reflects an increase of 0.5 percentage point when compared to the 48.9 percent registered in November. Six industries reported increased employment, nine industries reported decreased employment, and three industries reported unchanged employment compared to November. Comments from respondents include: “Retirees not being replaced” and “Still in holding pattern; positions are available, but are not being filled.”

The industries reporting an increase in employment in December — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Construction; and Finance & Insurance. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in December — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Other Services; Mining; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Employment           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Dec 2011 14 68 18 49.4
Nov 2011 15 68 17 48.9
Oct 2011 16 64 20 53.3
Sep 2011 10 73 17 48.7

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 51.5 percent in December, 1.5 percentage points higher than the 50 percent registered in November, indicating that supplier deliveries were slower in December. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The seven industries reporting slower deliveries in December — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Public Administration. The five industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in December are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Utilities; Information; and Wholesale Trade. Six industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in December compared to November.

Supplier Deliveries           %Slower         %Same         %Faster         Index
 
Dec 2011 9 85 6 51.5
Nov 2011 4 92 4 50.0
Oct 2011 7 90 3 52.0
Sep 2011 6 87 7 49.5

Inventories

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index contracted in December after one month of growth. The index registered 48.5 percent, which is 4 percentage points lower than the 52.5 percent reading that was reported in November. Of the total respondents in December, 24 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Annual [reduction] to get inventories down before taxes” and “Reducing excess to optimize inventory.”

The four industries reporting an increase in inventories in December are: Retail Trade; Mining; Information; and Accommodation & Food Services. The eight industries reporting decreases in inventories in December — listed in order — are: Other Services; Construction; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Inventories           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Dec 2011 19 59 22 48.5
Nov 2011 20 65 15 52.5
Oct 2011 14 63 23 45.5
Sep 2011 19 65 16 51.5

Prices

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased at a slower rate in December. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for December registered 61.2 percent, 1.3 percentage points lower than the 62.5 percent reported in November. In December, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 23 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 70 percent, and 7 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.

Twelve non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid, in the following order: Wholesale Trade; Information; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; Other Services; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Construction; and Finance & Insurance. The two industries reporting a decrease in prices paid are: Retail Trade; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

Prices           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Dec 2011 23 70 7 61.2
Nov 2011 23 72 5 62.5
Oct 2011 21 68 11 57.1
Sep 2011 24 69 7 61.9

Backlog of Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index contracted in December for the sixth time in seven months. The index registered 45.5 percent, 2.5 percentage points lower than the 48 percent reported in November. Of the total respondents in December, 37 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The two industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in December are: Transportation & Warehousing; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The six industries reporting lower backlog of orders in December — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; and Wholesale Trade. Nine industries reported no change in order backlogs for the month of December compared to November.

Backlog of Orders           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Dec 2011 11 69 20 45.5
Nov 2011 13 70 17 48.0
Oct 2011 10 74 16 47.0
Sep 2011 13 79 8

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