Dépêches
U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI and Diffusion Indexes
Dépèche transmise le 31 janvier 2012 par Business Wire
U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI and Diffusion Indexes
TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes are effective with the January 2012 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2012, and the January 2012 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®, which will be released on February 3, 2012.
Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes one year ahead (2012).
This year’s seasonal factor revisions include greater attention to two areas: series with marginal seasonality and with improved outlier detection. Due to this focus, the Department of Commerce recommended that ISM no longer seasonally adjust the ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index. Additionally, they recommended making revisions to all seasonally adjusted data for a longer time period than what ISM has typically done in the past.
In response to concerns that the unusually large declines in autumn 2008 associated with the recent recession that may not have been adequately handled with default settings, this year the Department of Commerce used lower thresholds (critical values) for detecting outliers. As a result of moving averages, these changes in outlier detection affected seasonal factors both before and after 2008; therefore, ISM is making revisions to seasonally adjusted data for the past seven years rather than the customary four-year period.
The X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indexes for 2005 through 2011, as well as the 2012 projected seasonal factors. The 2012 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2013. Projected seasonal factors for 2012 and revised seasonally adjusted indexes are shown below, followed by charts tracking both the former and the revised PMI for Manufacturing and Business Activity Index for Non-Manufacturing.
2012 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Manufacturing Indexes |
|||||||||
(Prepared by G. McKittrick, Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce, 202/482-2343) |
|||||||||
New |
Production | Employment |
Supplier |
||||||
Jan 2012 | 0.999 | 0.960 | 0.966 | 0.952 | |||||
Feb 2012 | 1.083 | 1.085 | 1.033 | 0.979 | |||||
Mar 2012 | 1.110 | 1.038 | 1.007 | 1.051 | |||||
Apr 2012 | 1.117 | 1.107 | 1.065 | 1.016 | |||||
May 2012 | 1.024 | 1.071 | 1.046 | 1.048 | |||||
Jun 2012 | 1.057 | 1.059 | 1.016 | 1.032 | |||||
Jul 2012 | 0.948 | 0.936 | 1.009 | 1.048 | |||||
Aug 2012 | 0.976 | 1.006 | 0.998 | 1.024 | |||||
Sep 2012 | 0.975 | 0.989 | 0.960 | 1.014 | |||||
Oct 2012 | 0.877 | 0.936 | 0.989 | 0.967 | |||||
Nov 2012 | 0.944 | 0.922 | 0.961 | 0.945 | |||||
Dec 2012 | 0.924 | 0.912 | 0.949 | 0.923 |
To compute the PMI:
1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.
2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place). Note: As of January 2012, the ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index is no longer seasonally adjusted.
3) Add all five index numbers together and divide by five.
To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.
2012 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes | |||||||||
Business |
New |
Employment | Prices | ||||||
Jan 2012 | 0.924 | 0.951 | 0.888 | 0.992 | |||||
Feb 2012 | 0.958 | 0.980 | 0.969 | 1.002 | |||||
Mar 2012 | 1.078 | 1.046 | 1.006 | 1.080 | |||||
Apr 2012 | 1.090 | 1.084 | 1.079 | 1.139 | |||||
May 2012 | 1.053 | 1.055 | 1.113 | 1.104 | |||||
Jun 2012 | 1.064 | 1.041 | 1.090 | 1.033 | |||||
Jul 2012 |
0.961 | 0.966 | 1.064 | 0.993 | |||||
Aug 2012 | 0.954 | 0.968 | 0.966 | 0.941 | |||||
Sep 2012 | 0.993 | 0.980 | 0.969 | 0.932 | |||||
Oct 2012 | 0.984 | 0.977 | 0.920 | 0.900 | |||||
Nov 2012 | 0.956 | 0.990 | 0.974 | 0.948 | |||||
Dec 2012 | 0.986 | 0.962 | 0.960 | 0.937 |
To compute the NMI:
1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for Business Activity, New Orders and Employment to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.
2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).
3) Add all four index numbers together and divide by four.
To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.
Revised Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2005-2011 | |||||||||||||||
PMI |
New |
Production | Employment |
Supplier |
Inventories* | ||||||||||
Jan | 2005 | 56.8 | 57.9 | 59.3 | 58.6 | 54.7 | 53.5 | ||||||||
Feb | 2005 | 55.5 | 55.9 | 58.2 | 56.0 | 56.5 | 51.0 | ||||||||
Mar | 2005 | 55.2 | 57.7 | 57.5 | 52.5 | 53.5 | 55.0 | ||||||||
Apr | 2005 | 52.2 | 53.4 | 54.2 | 53.0 | 51.8 | 48.5 | ||||||||
May | 2005 | 50.8 | 51.8 | 54.7 | 49.3 | 49.8 | 48.5 | ||||||||
Jun | 2005 | 52.4 | 55.7 | 55.1 | 51.1 | 52.0 | 48.0 | ||||||||
Jul | 2005 | 52.8 | 57.2 | 57.4 | 53.2 | 50.8 | 45.5 | ||||||||
Aug | 2005 | 52.4 | 57.8 | 55.6 | 51.8 | 49.9 | 47.0 | ||||||||
Sep | 2005 | 56.8 | 60.9 | 62.4 | 53.4 | 57.7 | 49.5 | ||||||||
Oct | 2005 | 57.2 | 61.4 | 62.1 | 54.3 | 61.8 | 46.5 | ||||||||
Nov | 2005 | 56.7 | 61.2 | 62.4 | 56.0 | 57.0 | 47.0 | ||||||||
Dec | 2005 | 55.1 | 60.1 | 60.3 | 53.7 | 54.9 | 46.5 | ||||||||
Jan | 2006 | 55.0 | 58.9 | 59.7 | 53.1 | 55.7 | 47.5 | ||||||||
Feb | 2006 | 55.8 | 61.0 | 57.9 | 53.5 | 54.4 | 52.0 | ||||||||
Mar | 2006 | 54.3 | 57.0 | 57.0 | 53.8 | 53.9 | 50.0 | ||||||||
Apr | 2006 | 55.2 | 55.7 | 57.1 | 54.2 | 57.4 | 51.5 | ||||||||
May | 2006 | 53.7 | 54.9 | 56.0 | 53.2 | 56.1 | 48.5 | ||||||||
Jun | 2006 | 52.0 | 55.0 | 53.4 | 49.9 | 54.0 | 47.5 | ||||||||
Jul | 2006 | 53.0 | 55.8 | 56.9 | 50.7 | 53.5 | 48.0 | ||||||||
Aug | 2006 | 53.7 | 55.3 | 55.2 | 52.6 | 54.2 | 51.0 | ||||||||
Sep | 2006 | 52.2 | 54.8 | 56.2 | 49.9 | 52.9 | 47.0 | ||||||||
Oct | 2006 | 51.4 | 54.1 | 54.3 | 49.6 | 51.3 | 47.5 | ||||||||
Nov | 2006 | 50.3 | 50.8 | 50.7 | 49.2 | 53.1 | 47.5 | ||||||||
Dec | 2006 | 51.4 | 51.4 | 52.7 | 49.8 | 55.7 | 47.5 | ||||||||
Jan | 2007 | 49.5 | 52.2 | 51.2 | 50.3 | 53.1 | 40.5 | ||||||||
Feb | 2007 | 51.9 | 55.1 | 53.8 | 50.9 | 52.8 | 47.0 | ||||||||
Mar | 2007 | 50.7 | 50.2 | 53.1 | 49.9 | 51.2 | 49.0 | ||||||||
Apr | 2007 | 52.6 | 57.4 | 56.2 | 51.9 | 50.3 | 47.0 | ||||||||
May | 2007 | 52.5 | 58.6 | 56.2 | 52.2 | 49.3 | 46.0 | ||||||||
Jun | 2007 | 52.6 | 57.7 | 59.5 | 51.9 | 48.9 | 45.0 | ||||||||
Jul | 2007 | 52.4 | 58.6 | 57.0 | 49.8 | 50.0 | 46.5 | ||||||||
Aug | 2007 | 50.9 | 54.4 | 54.3 | 50.0 | 49.2 | 46.5 | ||||||||
Sep | 2007 | 51.0 | 54.4 | 56.3 | 52.0 | 50.7 | 41.5 | ||||||||
Oct | 2007 | 51.1 | 56.4 | 51.3 | 50.7 | 51.6 | 45.5 | ||||||||
Nov | 2007 | 50.5 | 52.4 | 53.7 | 48.4 | 52.4 | 45.5 | ||||||||
Dec | 2007 | 49.0 | 46.5 | 49.2 | 48.6 | 56.0 | 44.5 | ||||||||
Jan | 2008 | 50.3 | 48.0 | 53.7 | 47.1 | 53.8 | 49.0 | ||||||||
Feb | 2008 | 47.6 | 46.4 | 47.4 | 45.8 | 51.6 | 47.0 | ||||||||
Mar | 2008 | 48.3 | 45.6 | 48.3 | 48.2 | 52.7 | 46.5 | ||||||||
Apr | 2008 | 48.8 | 46.5 | 48.3 | 46.6 | 53.8 | 49.0 | ||||||||
May | 2008 | 48.8 | 48.5 | 49.4 | 46.1 | 52.2 | 48.0 | ||||||||
Jun | 2008 | 49.8 | 49.7 | 50.7 | 44.8 | 53.9 | 50.0 | ||||||||
Jul | 2008 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 54.6 | 51.2 | 53.3 | 44.0 | ||||||||
Aug | 2008 | 49.2 | 46.7 | 50.4 | 48.9 | 49.3 | 50.5 | ||||||||
Sep | 2008 | 44.8 | 41.8 | 45.4 | 42.1 | 51.6 | 43.0 | ||||||||
Oct | 2008 | 38.9 | 33.2 | 33.6 | 33.7 | 50.3 | 43.5 | ||||||||
Nov | 2008 | 36.5 | 27.6 | 32.4 | 34.4 | 49.7 | 38.5 | ||||||||
Dec | 2008 | 33.1 | 23.2 | 26.3 | 29.9 | 48.1 | 38.0 | ||||||||
Jan | 2009 | 34.9 | 31.4 | 30.1 | 29.2 | 46.0 | 38.0 | ||||||||
Feb | 2009 | 35.6 | 32.9 | 35.0 | 25.3 | 46.7 | 38.0 | ||||||||
Mar | 2009 | 36.0 | 40.0 | 36.1 | 28.4 | 42.4 | 33.0 | ||||||||
Apr | 2009 | 39.8 | 46.8 | 39.4 | 33.8 | 44.7 | 34.5 | ||||||||
May | 2009 | 42.0 | 50.1 | 43.9 | 34.3 | 48.9 | 33.0 | ||||||||
Jun | 2009 | 45.8 | 51.3 | 55.1 | 41.4 | 50.0 | 31.0 | ||||||||
Jul | 2009 | 49.2 | 56.9 | 59.5 | 45.8 | 51.3 | 32.5 | ||||||||
Aug | 2009 | 53.5 | 65.3 | 63.2 | 47.2 | 55.7 | 36.0 | ||||||||
Sep | 2009 | 54.2 | 64.0 | 59.8 | 47.8 | 58.0 | 41.5 | ||||||||
Oct | 2009 | 55.9 | 59.5 | 63.2 | 52.3 | 58.1 | 46.5 | ||||||||
Nov | 2009 | 54.3 | 60.7 | 62.7 | 51.0 | 57.5 | 39.5 | ||||||||
Dec | 2009 | 55.8 | 64.6 | 61.2 | 52.0 | 59.6 | 41.5 | ||||||||
Jan | 2010 | 56.7 | 60.6 | 63.0 | 53.6 | 60.3 | 46.0 | ||||||||
Feb | 2010 | 55.8 | 57.5 | 57.2 | 54.4 | 60.8 | 49.0 | ||||||||
Mar | 2010 | 59.3 | 61.4 | 62.1 | 55.3 | 61.2 | 56.5 | ||||||||
Apr | 2010 | 59.0 | 64.5 | 64.1 | 56.4 | 59.4 | 50.5 | ||||||||
May | 2010 | 58.8 | 66.1 | 64.3 | 58.2 | 59.3 | 46.0 | ||||||||
Jun | 2010 | 56.0 | 59.3 | 61.2 | 56.6 | 56.7 | 46.0 | ||||||||
Jul | 2010 | 55.7 | 54.9 | 57.9 | 58.7 | 58.1 | 49.0 | ||||||||
Aug | 2010 | 57.4 | 55.6 | 61.2 | 60.7 | 56.4 | 53.0 | ||||||||
Sep | 2010 | 56.4 | 54.5 | 59.3 | 58.3 | 53.8 | 56.0 | ||||||||
Oct | 2010 | 57.0 | 58.7 | 62.0 | 58.4 | 53.1 | 53.0 | ||||||||
Nov | 2010 | 58.0 | 57.8 | 59.2 | 59.6 | 59.5 | 54.0 | ||||||||
Dec | 2010 | 57.3 | 59.0 | 60.8 | 57.9 | 58.6 | 50.0 | ||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||
Jan | 2011 | 59.9 | 63.8 | 63.5 | 60.7 | 59.3 | 52.0 | ||||||||
Feb | 2011 | 59.8 | 62.7 | 64.4 | 61.1 | 60.1 | 50.5 | ||||||||
Mar | 2011 | 59.7 | 61.9 | 65.9 | 62.1 | 59.8 | 49.0 | ||||||||
Apr | 2011 | 59.7 | 62.7 | 60.8 | 60.6 | 59.7 | 54.5 | ||||||||
May | 2011 | 54.2 | 55.0 | 54.6 | 58.3 | 54.4 | 48.5 | ||||||||
Jun | 2011 | 55.8 | 53.6 | 55.9 | 61.0 | 55.2 | 53.5 | ||||||||
Jul | 2011 | 51.4 | 50.8 | 52.5 | 55.1 | 50.6 | 48.0 | ||||||||
Aug | 2011 | 52.5 | 51.8 | 51.5 | 53.6 | 51.2 | 54.5 | ||||||||
Sep | 2011 | 52.5 | 51.1 | 52.5 | 55.2 | 51.6 | 52.0 | ||||||||
Oct |
2011
En direct des forums
|