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NMI at 57.3%; February Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 62.6%; New Orders Index at 61.2%; Employment Index at 55.7%

Dépèche transmise le 5 mars 2012 par Business Wire

NMI at 57.3%; February Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 62.6%; New Orders Index at 61.2%; Employment Index at 55.7%

NMI at 57.3%; February Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 62.6%; New Orders Index at 61.2%; Employment Index at 55.7%

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in February for the 26th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

“Optimism is all around, but sales remain sluggish. Activity shows interest, but market [is] very price sensitive.”

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The NMI registered 57.3 percent in February, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 56.8 percent registered in January, and indicating continued growth at a faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 62.6 percent, which is 3.1 percentage points higher than the 59.5 percent reported in January, reflecting growth for the 31st consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 1.8 percentage points to 61.2 percent, and the Employment Index decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 55.7 percent, indicating continued growth in employment, but at a slower rate. The Prices Index increased 4.9 percentage points to 68.4 percent, indicating prices increased at a faster rate in February when compared to January. According to the NMI, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in February. The majority of comments from the respondents reflect a growing level of optimism about business conditions and the overall economy. There is a concern about inflation, rising fuel prices and petroleum-based product costs.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 14 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in February — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Construction; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Mining; and Information. The three industries reporting contraction in February are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “Year-over-year and month-over-month growth continues. Market conditions improved dramatically.” (Information)
  • “Although customer traffic continues to decline, discretionary spending per capita is increasing. There is a bit more confidence regarding current economic conditions, spurring on slightly more aggressive marketing to capture new customers and encourage repeat visits.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
  • “Business is generally flat, but showing signs of improvement.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Bracing for impact of fuel price increases on delivered commodity prices.” (Educational Services)
  • “Optimism is all around, but sales remain sluggish. Activity shows interest, but market [is] very price sensitive.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Signs are building that things are starting to settle and business is stabilizing. Although orders aren’t increasing rapidly, they are steady and consistent instead of the radical swings of the past two years. We hope that this trend will continue.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Demand [is] gradually increasing for most business sectors.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE

COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS(a)

FEBRUARY 2012

     
Index Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing

Series
Index
Feb

 

Series
Index
Jan

 

Percent
Point
Change

 

Direction

 

Rate of
Change

 

Trend(b)
(Months)

Series
Index
Feb

 

Series
Index
Jan

 

Percent
Point
Change

 
NMI/PMI 57.3 56.8 +0.5 Growing Faster 26 52.4 54.1

-1.7

Business Activity/

Production

62.6 59.5 +3.1 Growing Faster 31 55.3 55.7 -0.4
New Orders 61.2 59.4 +1.8 Growing Faster 31 54.9 57.6 -2.7
Employment 55.7 57.4 -1.7 Growing Slower 2 53.2 54.3 -1.1
Supplier Deliveries 49.5 51.0 -1.5 Faster From Slower 1 49.0 53.6 -4.6
Inventories 53.5 47.0 +6.5 Growing From Contracting 1 49.5 49.5 0.0
Prices 68.4 63.5 +4.9 Increasing Faster 31 61.5 55.5 +6.0
Backlog of Orders 53.0 49.5 +3.5 Growing From Contracting 1 52.0 52.5 -0.5
New Export Orders 54.5 56.5 -2.0 Growing Slower 7 59.5 55.0 +4.5
Imports 52.0 55.0 -3.0 Growing Slower 3 54.0 52.5 +1.5
Inventory Sentiment 61.5 58.5 +3.0 Too High Faster 177 N/A N/A N/A
Customers’ Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 46.0 47.5 -1.5

(a) Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries.

(b) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Airfares (2); Asphalt; Copper Products; Crab (2); Diesel; #1 Diesel Fuel (3); #2 Diesel Fuel (4); Equipment Repair Parts; Fuel (2); Furniture; Gasoline (2); Gloves; #2 Heating Fuel; Lab Chemicals; Labor; Lumber; Petroleum Based Products (2); Plastic Film; Plastic Products; Poly Film; Steel Products; Tires — Large; and Wire Mesh.

Commodities Down in Price

Cotton Products; Natural Gas; Paper; and Paper Tissues.

Commodities in Short Supply

Crab (2) is the only commodity reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

FEBRUARY 2012 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI

In February, the NMI registered 57.3 percent, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 26th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

NMI HISTORY

          Month                     NMI                               Month                     NMI
 
Feb 2012 57.3 Aug 2011 53.8
Jan 2012 56.8 Jul 2011 53.4
Dec 2011 53.0 Jun 2011 53.3
Nov 2011 52.6 May 2011 54.5
Oct 2011 52.6 Apr 2011 54.4
Sep 2011 52.6 Mar 2011 56.3

Average for 12 months – 54.2
High – 57.3
Low – 52.6

Business Activity

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in February registered 62.6 percent, 3.1 percentage points higher than the 59.5 percent registered in January. Fifteen industries reported increased business activity, and two industries reported decreased activity for the month of February. Comments from respondents include: “New year project initiatives leading to more activity” and “Improved economic environment.”

The industries reporting growth of business activity in February — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Mining; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The industries reporting decreased business activity in February are: Management of Companies & Support Services; and Retail Trade.

Business Activity           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Feb 2012 34 52 14 62.6
Jan 2012 28 54 18 59.5
Dec 2011 28 54 18 55.9
Nov 2011 26 55 19 56.1

New Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in February for the 31st consecutive month. The index registered 61.2 percent, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the 59.4 percent reported in January. Comments from respondents include: “Expansion of business” and “Increased orders to meet new forecast by sales for spring.”

The 12 industries reporting growth of new orders in February — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Utilities. The four industries reporting contraction of new orders in February are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Mining; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

New Orders           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Feb 2012 31 58 11 61.2
Jan 2012 28 57 15 59.4
Dec 2011 24 57 19 54.6
Nov 2011 23 61 16 54.1

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in February at a slower rate, as ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 55.7 percent. This reflects a decrease of 1.7 percentage points when compared to the 57.4 percent registered in January. Nine industries reported increased employment, six industries reported decreased employment, and three industries reported unchanged employment compared to January. Comments from respondents include: “While higher, employment growth is leveling off” and “Finally replacing staff after months of holding off.”

The industries reporting an increase in employment in February — listed in order — are: Mining; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; and Finance & Insurance. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in February — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Construction.

Employment           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Feb 2012 17 74 9 55.7
Jan 2012 18 66 16 57.4
Dec 2011 14 68 18 49.8
Nov 2011 15 68 17 50.3

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 49.5 percent in February, 1.5 percentage points lower than the 51 percent registered in January, indicating that supplier deliveries were faster in February. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

The five industries reporting slower deliveries in February are: Mining; Educational Services; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; and Transportation & Warehousing. The four industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in February are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Other Services; and Finance & Insurance. Nine industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in February compared to January.

Supplier Deliveries           %Slower         %Same         %Faster         Index
 
Feb 2012 4 91 5 49.5
Jan 2012 7 88 5 51.0
Dec 2011 9 85 6 51.5
Nov 2011 4 92 4 50.0

Inventories

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index increased in February. The index registered 53.5 percent, which is 6.5 percentage points higher than the 47 percent reading that was reported in January. Of the total respondents in February, 26 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Growth of new brands/suppliers” and “Higher sales.”

The 10 industries reporting an increase in inventories in February — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; and Public Administration. The two industries reporting decreases in inventories in February are: Health Care & Social Assistance; and Information.

Inventories           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Feb 2012 20 67 13 53.5
Jan 2012 16 62 22 47.0
Dec 2011 19 59 22 48.5
Nov 2011 20 65 15 52.5

Prices

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased at a faster rate in February. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for February registered 68.4 percent, 4.9 percentage points higher than the 63.5 percent reported in January. In February, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 41 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 55 percent, and 4 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.

Fourteen non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid, in the following order: Construction; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Transportation & Warehousing. The two industries reporting a decrease in prices paid are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Information.

Prices           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Feb 2012 41 55 4 68.4
Jan 2012 31 64 5 63.5
Dec 2011 23 70 7 62.0
Nov 2011 23 72 5 62.2

Backlog of Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index grew in February after contracting for four consecutive months. The index registered 53 percent, 3.5 percentage points higher than the 49.5 percent reported in January. Of the total respondents in February, 34 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The nine industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in February — listed in order — are: Construction; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Educational Services; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; and Transportation & Warehousing. The six industries reporting lower backlog of orders in February — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

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Backlog of Orders           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Feb 2012 20 66 14 53.0
Jan 2012 16 67 17 49.5
Dec 2011 11 69 20 45.5
Nov 2011