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March Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; PMI at 53.4%; New Orders, Production and Employment Growing; Supplier Deliveries Faster; Inventories Unchanged

Dépèche transmise le 2 avril 2012 par Business Wire

March Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; PMI at 53.4%; New Orders, Production and Employment Growing; Supplier Deliveries Faster; Inventories Unchanged

March Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; PMI at 53.4%; New Orders, Production and Employment Growing; Supplier Deliveries Faster; Inventories Unchanged

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March for the 32nd consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 34th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

“Generally increasing sales/demand [is] driving higher capacity utilization.”

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The PMI registered 53.4 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from February’s reading of 52.4 percent, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 32nd consecutive month. The Production Index increased 3 percentage points from February’s reading of 55.3 percent to 58.3 percent, and the Employment Index increased 2.9 percentage points to 56.1 percent. Of the 18 industries included in the survey, 15 are experiencing overall growth. Comments from the panel remain positive, with several respondents citing increased sales and demand for the next few months.”

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 are reporting growth in March, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The two industries reporting contraction in March are: Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “Business is robust, driven by a healthy demand for exports and relatively stable raw materials [pricing].” (Chemical Products)
  • “Our customers are reporting a potential 10 percent to 13 percent increase in purchases for 2012. Actual orders continue to be slow to appear, but expectations continue to be high.” (Machinery)
  • “Business conditions [are] very strong and so is outlook.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “We have been experiencing 6 percent annual growth and expect that to continue in the near term.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Business continues to be brisk — if not robust — [this] month and looking forward.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • “Business remains essentially stable, with some concerns regarding continued slowdown in China.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Business remains strong.” (Primary Metals)
  • “Business improved year over year for the first quarter.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • “Generally increasing sales/demand [is] driving higher capacity utilization.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “Sales appear to be picking up over last year at this time, but still have a ways to go.” (Wood Products)
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE

MARCH 2012

Index    

Series
Index
Mar

   

Series
Index
Feb

   

Percentage
Point
Change

    Direction    

Rate of
Change

   

Trend(a)
(Months)

 
PMI 53.4 52.4 +1.0 Growing Faster 32
New Orders 54.5 54.9 -0.4 Growing Slower 35
Production 58.3 55.3 +3.0 Growing Faster 34
Employment 56.1 53.2 +2.9 Growing Faster 30
Supplier Deliveries 48.0 49.0 -1.0 Faster Faster 2
Inventories 50.0 49.5 +0.5 Unchanged From Contracting 1
Customers’ Inventories 44.5 46.0 -1.5 Too Low Faster

4

Prices 61.0 61.5 -0.5 Increasing Slower 3
Backlog of Orders 52.5 52.0 +0.5 Growing Faster 3
Exports 54.0 59.5 -5.5 Growing Slower 5
Imports 53.5 54.0 -0.5 Growing Slower 4
OVERALL ECONOMY

 

Manufacturing Sector

Growing Faster 34
Growing Faster 32

(a) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum Products (2); Copper; Crude Oil; Fuel; Gasoline; HDPE; Lumber; Oil; Plastic Components; Plastic Resins (2); Polypropylene (2); Rubber; Rubber Products; Steel(b) (4); and Whey Protein.

Commodities Down in Price

Natural Gas (8); and Steel(b).

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities are reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

(b) Reported as both up and down in price.

MARCH 2012 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

PMI

Manufacturing continued its growth in March as the PMI registered 53.4 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point when compared to February’s reading of 52.4 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42.6 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 34th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 32nd consecutive month. Holcomb stated, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through March (53.3 percent) corresponds to a 3.6 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for March (53.4 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 3.7 percent increase in real GDP annually.”

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

          Month           PMI                     Month           PMI
 
Mar 2012 53.4 Sep 2011 52.5
Feb 2012 52.4 Aug 2011 52.5
Jan 2012 54.1 Jul 2011 51.4
Dec 2011 53.1 Jun 2011 55.8
Nov 2011 52.2 May 2011 54.2
Oct 2011 51.8 Apr 2011 59.7

Average for 12 months – 53.6
High – 59.7
Low – 51.4

New Orders

ISM’s New Orders Index registered 54.5 percent in March, which is a decrease of 0.4 percentage point when compared to the February reading of 54.9 percent. This represents a continuation of growth for the 35th consecutive month, but at a slightly slower rate. A New Orders Index above 52.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The 15 industries reporting growth in new orders in March — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. The two industries reporting decreases in new orders in March are: Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

New Orders           %Better         %Same         %Worse         Net         Index
 
Mar 2012 34 53 13 +21 54.5
Feb 2012 37 45 18 +19 54.9
Jan 2012 35 45 20 +15 57.6
Dec 2011 29 44 27 +2 54.8

Production

ISM’s Production Index registered 58.3 percent in March, which is an increase of 3 percentage points when compared to the 55.3 percent reported in February. This indicates growth for the 34th consecutive month. An index above 51.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 15 industries reporting growth in production during the month of March — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The only industry reporting a decrease in production in March is Computer & Electronic Products.

Production           %Better         %Same         %Worse         Net         Index
 
Mar 2012 35 51 14 +21 58.3
Feb 2012 35 50 15 +20 55.3
Jan 2012 27 53 20 +7 55.7
Dec 2011 27 54 19 +8 58.9

Employment

ISM’s Employment Index registered 56.1 percent in March, which is 2.9 percentage points higher than the 53.2 percent reported in February. This is the 30th consecutive month of growth in the Employment Index. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 reported growth in employment in March in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in employment in March are: Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

Employment           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Net         Index
 
Mar 2012 25 63 12 +13 56.1
Feb 2012 26 58 16 +10 53.2
Jan 2012 23 59 18 +5 54.3
Dec 2011 23 58 19 +4 54.8

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster in March as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 48 percent, which is 1 percentage point lower than the 49 percent reported in February. This is the second consecutive month supplier deliveries have been faster than the previous month, following 31 consecutive months in which supplier deliveries slowed. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The six industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in March — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products. The four industries reporting faster deliveries in March are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products. Eight industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in March compared to February.

Supplier Deliveries           %Slower         %Same         %Faster         Net         Index
 
Mar 2012 9 83 8 +1 48.0
Feb 2012 7 82 11 -4 49.0
Jan 2012 9 84 7 +2 53.6
Dec 2011 8 79 13 -5 51.5

Inventories(c)

The Inventories Index registered 50 percent in March, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 49.5 percent reported in February. This month’s reading, at 50 percent, indicates that respondents are reporting inventories are unchanged from last month. An Inventories Index greater than 42.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The seven industries reporting higher inventories in March — listed in order — are: Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Petroleum & Coal Products. The six industries reporting decreases in inventories in March — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Apparel, Leather & Allied Products.

Inventories           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Net         Index
 
Mar 2012 20 60 20 0 50.0
Feb 2012 20 59 21 -1 49.5
Jan 2012 21 57 22 -1 49.5
Dec 2011 21 49 30 -9 45.5

Customers’ Inventories(c)

The ISM Customers’ Inventories Index registered 44.5 percent in March, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than in February when the index registered 46 percent. Customers’ inventories have registered at or below 50 percent for 36 consecutive months. A reading below 50 percent indicates customers’ inventories are considered too low.

The two manufacturing industries reporting customers’ inventories as being too high during March are: Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The nine industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during March — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. Seven industries reported no change in customer inventories in March compared to February.

Customers’ Inventories          

%
Reporting

   

% Too
High

   

% About
Right

   

%Too
Low

    Net     Index
 
Mar 2012 72 14 61 25 -11 44.5
Feb 2012 65 15 62 23 -8 46.0
Jan 2012 64 17 61 22 -5 47.5
Dec 2011 73 10 65 25 -15 42.5

Prices(c)

The ISM Prices Index registered 61 percent in March, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 61.5 percent reported in February. This is the third consecutive month the index has reflected an increase in the price of raw materials since September 2011, when the index registered 56 percent. In March, 36 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices, 14 percent reported paying lower prices and 50 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in February. A Prices Index above 49.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 industries report paying increased prices during the month of March in the following order: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; and Machinery. The two industries reporting paying lower prices on average during the month of March are: Petroleum & Coal Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Prices           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Net         Index
 
Mar 2012 36 50 14 +22 61.0
Feb 2012 31 61 8

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