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Economic growth in the United States is sustainable throughout the
remainder of 2007, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives
in their spring 2007 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for
the remainder of 2007 are encouraging in both the manufacturing and
non-manufacturing sectors.
These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Business
Survey Committee of the Institute for Supply Management(TM) (ISM). The
forecast was presented today by Norbert J. Ore, C.P.M., chair of the
ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, and group director,
strategic sourcing and procurement, Georgia-Pacific LLC; and by
Anthony S. Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing
Business Survey Committee, and senior vice president -- supply
management, Hilton Hotels Corporation.
Manufacturing Summary
The survey panel of purchasing and supply management executives
remains optimistic with 62 percent of respondents predicting revenues
to be greater in 2007 than in 2006. This is reflected in their
expectations of a 5.6 percent net increase in revenues for the period.
To support the revenue growth expectations, manufacturers expect to
increase capital expenditures 5.8 percent for the year in spite of a
lower current operating rate of 82.8 percent.
The manufacturing industries expecting the greatest revenue
increases in 2007 -- listed in order -- are: Primary Metals;
Miscellaneous Manufacturing(a); Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics &
Rubber Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. "Respondents
are optimistic about their organizations' prospects for 2007," said
Ore. "While 2007 appears to be lagging behind the last three years in
terms of manufacturing growth, the forecast indicates manufacturers
are investing and foresee revenue improvement in their future."
Non-Manufacturing Summary
Fifty-four percent of non-manufacturing purchasing and supply
executives expect their 2007 revenues to be greater than in 2006. They
currently expect a 2.1 percent net increase in overall revenues, lower
than the 6.4 percent increase that was forecast in December 2006.
Non-manufacturing industries expecting greater-than-average revenue in
2007 are: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information;
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services(b); Health Care &
Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and
Accommodation & Food Services.
OPERATING RATE
Manufacturing
Purchasing and supply managers report that their companies are
currently operating at 82.8 percent of normal capacity, representing a
decline from the 84.5 percent reported in December 2006 and the 85.6
percent reported in April 2006, and the lowest since December 2003
when the rate was 80.1 percent. This is consistent with the trend of
slower growth in manufacturing as reported in the monthly
Manufacturing ISM Report On Business(R). The following industries are
operating at capacity levels above the average capacity of 82.8
percent: Paper Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food,
Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation
Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous
Manufacturing(a).
Non-Manufacturing
Non-Manufacturing purchasing and supply executives report that
their organizations are currently operating at 84.4 percent of normal
capacity. This is lower than the 86.3 percent reported in December
2006 and the 88.4 percent reported in April 2006. The following
section of this forecast indicates that non-manufacturing industries
are continuing to add capacity in 2007, but at a slower rate. The
following industries are operating at capacity levels at or above the
average rate of 84.4 percent: Mining; Educational Services; Utilities;
Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Information;
Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and
Other Services(b).
-0-
*T
Operating Rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing
----------------------------------------------------------------------
April Dec April April Dec April
2006 2006 2007 2006 2006 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------
90%+ 49% 42% 43% 53% 56% 47%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
50%-89% 49% 56% 53% 47% 43% 52%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Below 50% 2% 2% 4% 0% 1% 1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Est. Overall Average 85.6% 84.5% 82.8% 88.4% 86.3% 84.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
*T
PRODUCTION CAPACITY - April 2007
Manufacturing
Production capacity in manufacturing is expected to increase 4
percent in 2007. This is less than the 5.4 percent predicted in
December 2006, but significantly better than the 2.7 percent reported
in December for 2006. This reflects the current improvement in the
sector as 46 percent reported an average capacity increase of 12.8
percent, 10 percent reported decreases averaging 18.9 percent, and 44
percent reported no change. The industries reporting expected
production capacity increases at or above 4 percent are: Computer &
Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics &
Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous
Manufacturing(a); Transportation Equipment; and Primary Metals.
-0-
*T
Manufacturing Production Capacity
----------------------------------------------------------------------
For 2006 For 2007 For 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Reported Magnitude Predicted Magnitude Predicted Magnitude
Dec 2006 of Change Dec 2006 of Change April of Change
2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Higher 44% + 9.8% 53% + 11.0% 46% + 12.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Same 43% NA 42% NA 44% NA
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Lower 13% - 11.8% 5% - 10.1% 10% - 18.9%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Average + 2.7% + 5.4% + 4.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
*T
Non-Manufacturing
The capacity to produce products or provide services in the
non-manufacturing sector is expected to increase 3.2 percent during
2007. This compares to an increase of 3 percent reported for 2006 and
a prediction in December 2006 of 6.2 percent for 2007. For 2007, 34
percent of non-manufacturing respondents expect their capacity to
increase by an average of 13.7 percent, and 7 percent of the
respondents foresee their capacity decreasing by an average of 23.1
percent. Fifty-nine percent expect no change in their capacity. The
industries expecting to add more than the average 3.2 percent to their
production capacity are: Information; Construction; Transportation &
Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health
Care & Social Assistance; Other Services(b); Retail Trade; Real
Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Finance & Insurance.
-0-
*T
Non-Manufacturing Production or Provision Capacity
----------------------------------------------------------------------
For 2006 For 2007 For 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Reported Magnitude Predicted Magnitude Predicted Magnitude
Dec 2006 of Change Dec 2006 of Change April of Change
2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Higher 42% + 7.4% 51% + 12.8% 34% + 13.7%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Same 56% NA 45% NA 59% NA
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Lower 2% - 7.5% 4% - 9.5% 7% - 23.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Average + 3.0% + 6.2% + 3.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
*T
PREDICTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES -- 2007 vs. 2006
Manufacturing
Survey respondents expect a 5.8 percent increase in capital
expenditures in 2007. This is less than the December 2006 forecast
when members predicted an 8.5 percent increase for 2007. Currently, 35
percent of respondents predict increased capital expenditures in 2007
with an average increase of 32.6 percent, while the 17 percent who
said their capital spending would be reduced report an average
decrease of 33.6 percent. Forty-eight percent say they will spend the
same in 2007 as they did in 2006. Industries predicting an increase
above 5.8 percent are: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary
Metals; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products;
Transportation Equipment; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components.
Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives are expecting
to increase their level of capital expenditures 5.6 percent in 2007
compared to 2006. The 43 percent of members expecting to spend more
predict and average increase of 24.1 percent. An additional 20 percent
anticipate a decrease averaging 23.4 percent. Thirty-seven percent of
the respondents expect to spend the same on capital expenditures in
2007 as in 2006. Industries expecting greater than the average 5.6
percent increase in capital expenditures in 2007 are: Health Care &
Social Assistance; Educational Services; Utilities; and Accommodation
& Food Services.
-0-
*T
Predicted Capital Expenditures 2007 vs. 2006
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Predicted Magnitude Predicted Predicted Magnitude
Dec 2006 April of Change Dec 2006 April of Change
2007 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Higher 44% 35% + 32.6% 50% 43% + 24.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Same 39% 48% NA 34% 37% NA
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Lower 17% 17% - 33.6% 16% 20% - 23.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net
Average + 8.5% + 5.8% + 8.2% + 5.6%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
*T
PRICES -- Changes Between End of 2006 and April 2007
Manufacturing
In the December 2006 forecast, respondents expected an increase of
1.4 percent in prices paid during the first four months of 2007;
however, they now report prices have increased 2.8 percent for the
period. The 66 percent who say their prices are higher now than at the
end of 2006 report an average increase of 4.9 percent, while the 12
percent who report lower prices report an average decrease of 3.5
percent. The remaining 22 percent indicate no change for the period.
Industries reporting increases at or above 2.8 percent in prices paid
for the first part of 2007 are: Primary Metals; Food, Beverage &
Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components;
Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Chemical Products; and
Fabricated Metal Products.
Non-Manufacturing
Non-Manufacturing respondents report that their purchases in the
first four months of this year cost an average of 2.6 percent more
than they cost at the end of 2006. This is 0.5 percent below the 3.1
percent predicted for this period in December 2006. Sixty-seven
percent of the non-manufacturing respondents report the prices they
paid increased an average of 5.5 percent in the first part of 2007.
Seven percent report price decreases averaging 16.1 percent. The
remaining twenty-six percent indicate no change in prices in the first
four months of 2007. Industries reporting a greater-than-average
increase in prices they paid in the first part of 2007 are: Real
Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Educational Services; Professional,
Scientific & Technical Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation;
Public Administration; Other Services(b); Utilities; and Retail Trade.
-0-
*T
Prices - Changes Between End of 2006 and April 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Reported Magnitude Predicted Reported Magnitude
Dec 2006 April of Change Dec 2006 April of Change
2007 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Higher 49% 66% + 4.9% 64% 67% + 5.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Same 30% 22% NA 27% 26% NA
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Lower 21% 12% - 3.5% 9% 7% - 16.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Average + 1.4% + 2.8% + 3.1% + 2.6%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
*T
PRICES -- Predicted Changes Between End of 2006 and End of 2007
Manufacturing
When asked to predict 2007 price changes, 77 percent of
respondents expect prices they pay to increase by 5.4 percent. At the
same time, 12 percent anticipate decreases averaging 6 percent.
Including the 11 percent who expect no change in prices, survey
respondents expect net average prices to increase 3.5 percent for
2007, which is greater than the December 2006 prediction of 1.1
percent. Industries predicting increases in prices greater than 3.5
percent for all of 2007 are: Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances
& Components; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Fabricated
Metal Products; and Chemical Products.
Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing respondents expect prices they pay to increase
an average of 3.2 percent over the entire year. Seventy-two percent of
the respondents anticipate price increases averaging 5.9 percent.
Eight percent of the respondents expect decreases of 13.8 percent, and
20 percent do not expect prices to change. Industries expecting
higher-than-average rates of price increases in 2007 are: Real Estate,
Rental & Leasing; Mining; Public Administration; Arts, Entertainment &
Recreation; Other Services(b); Utilities; Accommodation & Food
Services; Retail Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical
Services.
-0-
*T
Prices - Predicted Changes Between End of 2006 and End of 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Predicted Magnitude Predicted Predicted Magnitude
Dec 2006 April of Change Dec 2006 April of Change
2007 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Higher 55% 77% + 5.4% 75% 72% + 5.9%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Same 19% 11% NA 16% 20% NA
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Lower 26% 12% - 6.0% 9% 8% - 13.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net
Average + 1.1% + 3.5% + 4.0% + 3.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
*T
EMPLOYMENT
Change in Overall Employment - Balance 2007
Manufacturing
ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey respondents forecast that
manufacturing employment will increase 0.5 percent in 2007, with 25
percent expecting employment to be 7.2 percent higher. This is in
contrast to the 16 percent who predict employment to be lower by 7.7
percent. The remaining 59 percent of respondents expect their
employment levels to be unchanged in 2007. Industries reporting
expectations for greater than 0.5 percent growth in employment during
the year are: Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment;
Miscellaneous Manufacturing(a); Computer & Electronic Products;
Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
Non-Manufacturing
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee members forecast
that employment will increase 0.5 percent during the balance of 2007.
For the remaining months of 2007, 31 percent expect higher levels of
employment, 15 percent anticipate lower levels, and 54 percent expect
their employment levels to be unchanged. Industries anticipating above
average increases in their employment in the coming months of 2007
are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social
Assistance; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Transportation &
Warehousing; Other Services(b); Professional, Scientific & Technical
Services; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services;
and Educational Services.
-0-
*T
Predicted Change in Overall Employment
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Balance Nominal Predicted Balance Nominal
for 2007 of Change for 2007 of 2007 Change
Dec 2006 2007 Dec 2006 April
April 2007
2007
-------------------=========-=======---------=========-=======--------
Higher 31% 25% + 7.2% 43% 31% + 7.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Same 44% 59% NA 42% 54% NA
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Lower 25% 16% - 7.7% 15% 15% - 11.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Average + 0.1% + 0.5% + 1.6% + 0.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Diffusion Index 53% 54.5% 64% 58%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
*T
BUSINESS REVENUES
Business Revenues Comparison -- 2007 vs. 2006
Manufacturing
Looking ahead, expectations are for increased revenues in 2007 as
purchasing and supply management executives indicate an overall net
nominal increase of 5.6 percent in business revenues for 2007 over
2006. This is less than the 6.4 percent increase that was forecast in
December 2006 for all of 2007, and less than the 6.2 percent reported
for 2006, but still a significant year-over-year improvement.
Sixty-two percent of respondents say that nominal revenues (before
adjusting for inflation) will increase an average of 12.2 percent over
2006. Conversely, 16 percent say their nominal revenues will decrease
an average of 12 percent, and the remaining 22 percent indicate no
change. The industries expecting revenue gains of 5.6 percent or
higher in 2007 are: Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing(a);
Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products;
Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Food,
Beverage & Tobacco Products.
-0-
*T
Manufacturing Business Revenues
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2006 vs 2005 2007 vs 2006
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Reported Nominal Predicted Nominal Predicted Nominal
Dec 2006 % Change Dec 2006 % Change April 2007 % Change
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Higher 66% + 12.4% 72% + 10.7% 62% + 12.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Same 15% NA 17% NA 22% NA
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Lower 19% - 10.5% 11% - 12.7% 16% - 12%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Average + 6.2% + 6.4% + 5.6%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
*T
Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing respondents forecast that business revenues for
2007 will increase 2.1 percent compared to 2006. This is lower than
the 6.4 percent predicted in December 2006 for 2007. The fifty-four
percent of respondents forecasting better business in 2007 than in
2006 estimate an average nominal revenue increase of 7.7 percent. This
is in contrast to an average nominal decrease of 15.2 percent forecast
by the 14 percent who predict less business in 2007. The remaining 32
percent see no change in revenues for 2007. Industries expecting a 2.1
percent or greater increase in revenues in 2007 are: Professional,
Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Arts, Entertainment &
Recreation; Other Services(b); Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail
Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Accommodation & Food
Services.
-0-
*T
Non-Manufacturing Business Revenues
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2006 vs 2005 2007 vs 2006
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Reported Nominal Predicted Nominal Predicted Nominal
Dec 2006 % Change Dec 2006 % Change April 2007 % Change
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Higher 70% + 12.5% 72% + 9.8% 54% + 7.7%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Same 18% NA 22% NA 32% NA
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Lower 12% - 7.9% 6% - 10.9% 14% - 15.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Average + 7.7% + 6.4% + 2.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
*T
SUMMARY
Manufacturing
-- Operating rate is currently 82.8 percent of normal capacity.
-- Production capacity is expected to increase 4 percent in 2007.
-- Capital expenditures are expected to increase 5.8 percent in
2007.
-- Prices paid increased 2.8 percent through the end of April
2007.
-- Prices are expected to increase an additional 0.7 percent for
a total increase of 3.5 percent for all of 2007.
-- Manufacturing employment is expected to increase 0.5 percent
during the remainder of 2007.
-- Manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 5.6 percent in
2007.
-- Overall, manufacturing is growing at a slower but sustainable
rate.
Non-Manufacturing
-- Operating rate is currently 84.4 percent of normal capacity.
-- Production capacity is expected to increase 3.2 percent in
2007.
-- Capital expenditures are expected to increase 5.6 percent in
2007.
-- Prices paid increased 2.6 percent through the end of April
2007.
-- Prices are expected to increase an additional 0.6 percent for
a total increase of 3.2 percent for all of 2007.
-- Non-manufacturing employment is expected to increase 0.5
percent during the balance of 2007.
-- Non-manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 2.1
percent in 2007.
-- Overall, non-manufacturing is growing at a slower but
sustainable rate.
(a) Miscellaneous items include: Products such as Medical
Equipment and Supplies, Jewelry, Sporting Goods, Toys and Office
Supplies.
(b) Other Services include: Equipment & Machinery Repairing;
Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking;
Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care
Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing
Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services.
In addition to the forecast, the Manufacturing ISM Report on
Business(R) is issued monthly on the first business day of each month
and is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term
economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top
government agencies and economic business leaders. The report,
compiled from responses to questions asked of approximately 350
purchasing and supply executives across the country, tracks industrial
production, new orders, inventories, supplier deliveries, employment,
buying policies and prices. Manufacturing Business Survey Committee
responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food,
Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied
Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support
Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics &
Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals;
Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products;
Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation
Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous
Manufacturing(a). The report has been issued by the association since
1931, except during World War II.
Covering the non-manufacturing sector, ISM debuted the
Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business(R) in June 1998. The
Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business(R) is released on the third
business day of each month, and is based on data received from
purchasing and supply executives from 18 different non-manufacturing
industries across the country. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On
Business(R) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's
contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing
Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following
NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting;
Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade;
Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real
Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical
Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational
Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment &
Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services(b); and
Public Administration. The report covers business activity, new
orders, backlog of orders, new export orders, inventory change,
inventory sentiment, imports, prices, employment and supplier
deliveries.
The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business(R)
is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management(TM). The
Institute for Supply Management(TM), established in 1915, is the
largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of
the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management
profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional
activities and education.
The full text version of the reports is posted on ISM's Home Page
at www.ism.ws on the first and third business day of every month after
10:10 a.m. (ET).
The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business(R) featuring the May
2007 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Friday, June 1, 2007.
The next Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business(R) featuring the
May 2007 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Monday, June 4,
2007.
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