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The first passenger flight of the new Airbus A380 mega-plane,
between Singapore and Sydney, heralds more than just an exciting new
era for Singapore Airlines and its long-haul passengers. Thursday's
much anticipated journey could also be said to augur the beginning of
a whole new era in aviation. And to mark the occasion international
aviation consultancy Ascend has today released its predictions for
global aviation's future stars.
Ascend has looked at the current crop of younger, smaller
airlines: assessing their order books, routes, expansion plans,
pricing, passenger numbers and all aspects of their business. Using
its own analysis of the industry's prospects for the next decade,
Ascend has filtered these assessments to predict which airlines have
what it takes to join carriers such as British Airways, Singapore
Airlines and American Airlines in aviation's big league.
Ascend's ones-to-watch list:
AirAsia - currently the largest low-cost carrier in Asia, the
airline has aggressive expansion plans including launching low-cost
long-haul flights to both Europe and Australia later this year.
Kingfisher Airlines - currently operating internal routes within
India it has confident expansion plans including offering long-haul
routes using wide-body aircraft. As with Virgin the Kingfisher brand
is strong and diverse.
Air Berlin - has rapidly grown to become Germany's second largest
airline following takeovers of dba, LTU and Condor. It currently
offers a mix of low-cost and charter flights and has placed orders for
Boeing's 787.
Virgin Blue - has established itself as a low-cost carrier mainly
operating routes across Australia and New Zealand. The airline is
planning to launch low-cost transpacific flights in 2008. This is the
first time that any airline has challenged the established carriers on
the Australia-USA route which is currently very limited in terms of
choice of airline and fares.
TAM - the oldest of the five airlines, the well established
Brazilian carrier started out by offering mostly internal flights and
routes within South America. However it has recently stretched its
wings and now has the largest fleet on its home continent. It now also
offers long-haul routes to Europe and North America.
East bests West
"Airlines come and airlines go," says Gehan Talwatte, Managing
Director, Ascend. "But some stick around long enough to make a name
for themselves and a few even break into the big league. In recent
years, we've seen Emirates, Ryanair and Virgin Atlantic all make that
step up. Now our analysis shows five new airlines that have what it
takes to join the ranks of the industry leaders. We believe that all
five have the business models, and the right expansion plans in place
to capitalise on the sweeping changes we're expecting in the aviation
market over the next decade."
According to Ascend, the focus of the global aviation industry is
set shift dramatically away from the North America and Europe to Asia.
Its data shows that of the current global aircraft fleet 38% are
registered in North America, 26% in Europe and 18% in Asia. But when
it comes to the backlog of aircraft on order Asian airlines outstrip
these traditionally dominant markets: 32% have been ordered by Asian
carriers, against 25% in North America and 24% by European airlines.
"We've been watching the growth of the Asian airlines for some
time now," continues Talwatte. "And we now are reaching the point
where that growth translates into real clout. This is the market that
will increasingly set the industry agenda, and present the greatest
opportunities. For example, airlines will be clamouring after the
routes into major Asian cities, particularly into China. So whether we
are talking about the capabilities to build into new aircraft or
aircraft landing rights, it's the Asian voice that will increasingly
be heard."
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