Dépêches
NMI at 52%; November Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 56.2%; New Orders Index at 53%; Employment Index at 48.9%
Dépèche transmise le 5 décembre 2011 par Business Wire
NMI at 52%; November Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 56.2%; New Orders Index at 53%; Employment Index at 48.9%
TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 24th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
“Minor cost reduction effort to ensure year-end targets.”
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The NMI registered 52 percent in November, 0.9 percentage point lower than the 52.9 percent registered in October, and indicating continued growth at a slightly slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. This is the lowest reading since January 2010, when the index registered 50.7 percent. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 2.4 percentage points to 56.2 percent, reflecting growth for the 28th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 0.6 percentage point to 53 percent. The Employment Index decreased 4.4 percentage points to 48.9 percent, indicating contraction in employment after one month of growth. The Prices Index increased 5.4 percentage points to 62.5 percent, indicating prices increased at a faster rate in November when compared to October. According to the NMI, 12 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in November. Respondents’ comments for the most part project continued slow, incremental growth. There still remains a strong concern about lagging employment.”
INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)
The 12 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in November based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Mining; Information; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The six industries reporting contraction in November — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; and Construction.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
- “Business activity continues to swing back and forth. Customer traffic remains lower than expected, but discretionary spending is fluctuating, making it difficult to find the pulse of the consumer.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
- “Lending is getting a little better. Competition for good deals is fierce because there remains a very limited number of high-quality borrowers.” (Finance & Insurance)
- “Raw materials prices appear to be stabilizing, and in some cases are dropping. Diesel fuels remain elevated and have not dropped.” (Mining)
- “We currently see no signs of a turnaround. Customers are nervous about the future of their jobs and incomes. Due to this fact, our sales are down and our need to hire more employees is, too.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
- “Business is slowly improving. Outlook for the next few months is good.” (Retail Trade)
- “In the face of an extremely tight business climate, prices continue to be sticky. We are not seeing significant price moderation.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
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ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE |
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| Index | Non-Manufacturing | Manufacturing | ||||||||||||||||||
|
Series |
Series |
Percent |
Direction |
Rate of |
Trend(b) |
Series |
Series Oct |
Percent |
||||||||||||
| NMI/PMI | 52.0 | 52.9 | -0.9 | Growing | Slower | 24 | 52.7 | 50.8 | +1.9 | |||||||||||
|
Business Activity/
Production |
56.2 | 53.8 | +2.4 | Growing | Faster | 28 | 56.6 | 50.1 | +6.5 | |||||||||||
| New Orders | 53.0 | 52.4 | +0.6 | Growing | Faster | 28 | 56.7 | 52.4 | +4.3 | |||||||||||
| Employment | 48.9 | 53.3 | -4.4 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 | 51.8 | 53.5 | -1.7 | |||||||||||
| Supplier Deliveries | 50.0 | 52.0 | -2.0 | Unchanged | From Slowing | 1 | 49.9 | 51.3 | -1.4 | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 52.5 | 45.5 | +7.0 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | 48.3 | 46.7 | +1.6 | |||||||||||
| Prices | 62.5 | 57.1 | +5.4 | Increasing | Faster | 28 | 45.0 | 41.0 | +4.0 | |||||||||||
| Backlog of Orders | 48.0 | 47.0 | +1.0 | Contracting | Slower | 2 | 45.0 | 47.5 | -2.5 | |||||||||||
| New Export Orders | 55.5 | 54.0 | +1.5 | Growing | Faster | 4 | 52.0 | 50.0 | +2.0 | |||||||||||
| Imports | 48.5 | 48.0 | +0.5 | Contracting | Slower | 3 | 49.0 | 49.5 | -0.5 | |||||||||||
| Inventory Sentiment | 63.0 | 57.5 | +5.5 | Too High | Faster | 174 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||||||||||
| Customers’ Inventories | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 50.0 | 43.5 | +6.5 | |||||||||||
(a) Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
(b) Number of months moving in current direction
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Airfares (2); Crab Legs; Diesel Fuel; #2 Diesel Fuel; Fluorescent Lamps (2); Food Products; Fruit; Fuel(c); Gasoline; Gloves; Hard Drives; Heating Fuel; Natural Gas; Packaging Film; Paper; Paper Products (3); Steel Products(c) (3); and Vegetables.
Commodities Down in Price
Computers; Fuel(c); and Steel Products(c).
Commodities in Short Supply
Hard Drives is the only commodity reported in short supply.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
(c) Reported as both up and down in price.
NOVEMBER 2011 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
NMI
In November, the NMI registered 52 percent, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 24th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.
NMI HISTORY
| Month | NMI | Month | NMI | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Nov 2011 | 52.0 | May 2011 | 54.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oct 2011 | 52.9 | Apr 2011 | 52.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sep 2011 | 53.0 | Mar 2011 | 57.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Aug 2011 | 53.3 | Feb 2011 | 59.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jul 2011 | 52.7 | Jan 2011 | 59.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jun 2011 | 53.3 | Dec 2010 | 57.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Average for 12 months – 54.8 |
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Business Activity
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in November registered 56.2 percent, an increase of 2.4 percentage points when compared to the 53.8 percent registered in October. Nine industries reported increased business activity, and eight industries reported decreased activity for the month of November. Comments from respondents include: “Clients deciding to act and not wait any longer” and “Trying to finish projects prior to end of year.”
The industries reporting growth of business activity in November — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Transportation & Warehousing. The industries reporting decreased business activity in November — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; and Construction.
| Business Activity | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Index | |||||||||||||||||
| Nov 2011 | 26 | 55 | 19 | 56.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Oct 2011 | 24 | 57 | 19 | 53.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Sep 2011 | 27 | 59 | 14 | 57.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Aug 2011 | 27 | 54 | 19 | 55.6 |
New Orders
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in November for the 28th consecutive month. The index registered 53 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage point from the 52.4 percent reported in October. Comments from respondents include: “New customers and products” and “Building inventories for favorable sales outlook.”
The 10 industries reporting growth of new orders in November — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Public Administration. The six industries reporting contraction of new orders in November — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services; Educational Services; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; and Finance & Insurance.
| New Orders | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Index | |||||||||||||||||
| Nov 2011 | 23 | 61 | 16 | 53.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Oct 2011 | 23 | 57 | 20 | 52.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Sep 2011 | 25 | 60 | 15 | 56.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Aug 2011 | 27 | 50 | 23 | 52.8 |
Employment
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in November after one month of growth, as ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 48.9 percent. This reflects a decrease of 4.4 percentage points when compared to the 53.3 percent registered in October. Five industries reported increased employment, eight industries reported decreased employment, and five industries reported unchanged employment compared to October. Comments from respondents include: “Reduction in staff in areas where activity is consistently slow” and “Minor cost reduction effort to ensure year-end targets.”
The industries reporting an increase in employment in November are: Mining; Retail Trade; Construction; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in November — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Public Administration.
| Employment | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Index | |||||||||||||||||
| Nov 2011 | 15 | 68 | 17 | 48.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Oct 2011 | 16 | 64 | 20 | 53.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Sep 2011 | 10 | 73 | 17 | 48.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Aug 2011 | 16 | 69 | 15 | 51.6 |
Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50 percent in November, 2 percentage points lower than the 52 percent registered in October, indicating that supplier deliveries were unchanged in November. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The five industries reporting slower deliveries in November are: Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Utilities. The four industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in November are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Wholesale Trade; and Finance & Insurance. Nine industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in November compared to October.
| Supplier Deliveries | %Slower | %Same | %Faster | Index | |||||||||||||||||
| Nov 2011 | 4 | 92 | 4 | 50.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Oct 2011 | 7 | 90 | 3 | 52.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Sep 2011 | 6 | 87 | 7 | 49.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Aug 2011 | 10 | 86 | 4 | 53.0 |
Inventories
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index grew in November after one month of contraction. The index registered 52.5 percent, which is 7 percentage points higher than the 45.5 percent reading that was reported in October. Of the total respondents in November, 24 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “More orders, so higher raw materials inventories” and “Finally, inventories are in line with run rates.”
The nine industries reporting an increase in inventories in November — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Utilities; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The six industries reporting decreases in inventories in November — listed in order — are: Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Accommodation & Food Services.
| Inventories | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Index | |||||||||||||||||
| Nov 2011 | 20 | 65 | 15 | 52.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Oct 2011 | 14 | 63 | 23 | 45.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Sep 2011 | 19 | 65 | 16 | 51.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Aug 2011 | 21 | 65 | 14 | 53.5 |
Prices
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased at a faster rate in November. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for November registered 62.5 percent, 5.4 percentage points higher than the 57.1 percent reported in October. In November, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 23 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 72 percent, and 5 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.
Thirteen non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid, in the following order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; Mining; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Public Administration; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Information. The four industries reporting a decrease in prices paid are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Construction.
| Prices | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Index | |||||||||||||||||
| Nov 2011 | 23 | 72 | 5 | 62.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Oct 2011 | 21 | 68 | 11 | 57.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Sep 2011 | 24 | 69 | 7 | 61.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Aug 2011 | 28 | 64 | 8 | 64.2 |
Backlog of Orders
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index contracted in November for the fifth time in six months. The index registered 48 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 47 percent reported in October. Of the total respondents in November, 37 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.
The two industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in November are: Other Services; and Accommodation & Food Services. The seven industries reporting lower backlog of orders in November — listed in order — are: Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; and Management of Companies & Support Services. Nine industries reported no change in order backlogs for the month of November compared to October.
