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December Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; PMI at 53.9%; New Orders, Production and Employment Growing; Supplier Deliveries Faster; Inventories Contracting

Dépèche transmise le 3 janvier 2012 par Business Wire

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December for the 29th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 31st consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®.

“Business beginning to slow down (seasonal), but will finish with a very strong year.”

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The PMI registered 53.9 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from November’s reading of 52.7 percent, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 29th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 0.9 percentage point from November to 57.6 percent, reflecting the third consecutive month of growth after three months of contraction. Prices of raw materials continued to decrease for the third consecutive month, with the Prices Index registering 47.5 percent, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the November reading of 45 percent. Manufacturing is finishing out the year on a positive note, with new orders, production and employment all growing in December at faster rates than in November, and with an optimistic view toward the beginning of 2012 as reflected by the panel in this month’s survey.”

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, nine are reporting growth in December, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; and Paper Products. The nine industries reporting contraction in December — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

“Slow Q4 — lots of destocking and inventory reduction going on.” (Chemical Products)
“Business seems strong, but likely due to tax advantages of purchasing capital expense items.” (Machinery)
“Our business is stable with a very good outlook for 2012.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
“Food prices seem to have peaked as demand is starting to wane.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
“All auto demand remains strong.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
“Continued conservative hiring, with tight discretionary spending controls due to slower growth expectations for 2012, driven by Euro zone sovereign debt concerns and lack of viable U.S. legislative process through the 2012 election.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
“Business beginning to slow down (seasonal), but will finish with a very strong year.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
“Business is steady today around the world.” (Transportation Equipment)
“Market has definitely slowed in the last month, and is expected to remain so this month.” (Wood Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE DECEMBER 2011

Index		Series Index Dec		Series Index Nov		Percentage Point Change	Direction	Rate of Change	Trend(a) (Months)

PMI		53.9		52.7		+1.2	Growing	Faster	29
New Orders		57.6		56.7		+0.9	Growing	Faster	3
Production		59.9		56.6		+3.3	Growing	Faster	4
Employment		55.1		51.8		+3.3	Growing	Faster	27
Supplier Deliveries		49.9		49.9		0.0	Faster	Same	2
Inventories		47.1		48.3		-1.2	Contracting	Faster	3
Customers’ Inventories		42.5		50.0		-7.5	Too Low	From Unchanged	1
Prices		47.5		45.0		+2.5	Decreasing	Slower	3
Backlog of Orders		48.0		45.0		+3.0	Contracting	Slower	7
Exports		53.0		52.0		+1.0	Growing	Faster	2
Imports		54.0		49.0		+5.0	Growing	From Contracting	1
OVERALL ECONOMY Manufacturing Sector							Growing	Faster	31
	Growing		Faster		29

(a) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum(b); Aluminum Products(b) (5); Corn Based Products; Electronic Components (2); Plastic Products(b); Plastic Resins(b) (2); Rubber Based Products; Steel(b); and Steel Products.

Commodities Down in Price

Aluminum(b) (4); Aluminum Products(b); High Density Polyethylene; Natural Gas (5); Nickel; Plastic Products(b) (3); Plastic Resins(b) (5); Polypropylene (2); Stainless Steel (2); and Steel(b) (8).

Commodities in Short Supply

Castings (4); and Hard Drives.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

(b) Reported as both up and down in price.

DECEMBER 2011 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

PMI

Manufacturing continued its growth in December as the PMI registered 53.9 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points when compared to November’s reading of 52.7 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 31st consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 29th consecutive month. Holcomb stated, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through December (55.3 percent) corresponds to a 4.5 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for December (53.9 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 4 percent increase in real GDP annually.”

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month	PMI	Month	PMI

Dec 2011	53.9	Jun 2011	55.3
Nov 2011	52.7	May 2011	53.5
Oct 2011	50.8	Apr 2011	60.4
Sep 2011	51.6	Mar 2011	61.2
Aug 2011	50.6	Feb 2011	61.4
Jul 2011	50.9	Jan 2011	60.8
Average for 12 months – 55.3 High – 61.4 Low – 50.6

New Orders

ISM’s New Orders Index registered 57.6 percent in December, which is an increase of 0.9 percentage point when compared to the November reading of 56.7 percent, and represents a continuation of growth for the third consecutive month. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The nine industries reporting growth in new orders in December — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The seven industries reporting decreases in new orders in December — listed in order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Transportation Equipment.

New Orders	%Better	%Same	%Worse	Net	Index

Dec 2011	29	44	27	+2	57.6
Nov 2011	23	55	22	+1	56.7
Oct 2011	22	53	25	-3	52.4
Sep 2011	23	53	24	-1	49.6

Production

ISM’s Production Index registered 59.9 percent in December, which is an increase of 3.3 percentage points when compared to the November reading of 56.6 percent. This indicates growth for the fourth consecutive month. An index above 51 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 10 industries reporting growth in production during the month of December — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Transportation Equipment. The five industries reporting a decrease in production in December are: Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Production	%Better	%Same	%Worse	Net	Index

Dec 2011	27	54	19	+8	59.9
Nov 2011	24	55	21	+3	56.6
Oct 2011	21	59	20	+1	50.1
Sep 2011	23	56	21	+2	51.2

Employment

ISM’s Employment Index registered 55.1 percent in December, which is 3.3 percentage points higher than the 51.8 percent reported in November. This is the 27th consecutive month the Employment Index has been above 50 percent. An Employment Index above 50.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 10 reported growth in employment in December in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in December — listed in order — are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Primary Metals.

Employment	%Higher	%Same	%Lower	Net	Index

Dec 2011	23	58	19	+4	55.1
Nov 2011	22	57	21	+1	51.8
Oct 2011	22	63	15	+7	53.5
Sep 2011	22	62	16	+6	53.8

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster in December as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 49.9 percent, which is the same level registered in November and indicates faster deliveries this month compared to last month. This is the second consecutive month supplier deliveries have been below 50 percent. The last time supplier deliveries registered below 50 percent was in May 2009, when the Supplier Deliveries Index also registered 49.9 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The two industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in December are: Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The nine industries reporting faster deliveries in December — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. Seven industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in December compared to November.

Supplier Deliveries	%Slower	%Same	%Faster	Net	Index

Dec 2011	8	79	13	-5	49.9
Nov 2011	9	79	12	-3	49.9
Oct 2011	10	81	9	+1	51.3
Sep 2011	12	81	7	+5	51.4

Inventories

The Inventories Index registered 47.1 percent in December, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 48.3 percent reported in November. An Inventories Index greater than 42.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The five industries reporting higher inventories in December are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Paper Products. The 11 industries reporting decreases in inventories in December — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Primary Metals.

Inventories	%Higher	%Same	%Lower	Net	Index

Dec 2011	21	49	30	-9	47.1
Nov 2011	16	61	23	-7	48.3
Oct 2011	17	59	24	-7	46.7
Sep 2011	23	58	19	+4	52.0

Customers’ Inventories(c)

The ISM Customers’ Inventories Index registered 42.5 percent in December, 7.5 percentage points lower than in November when the index registered 50 percent. Customers’ inventories have registered at or below 50 percent for 33 consecutive months. A reading below 50 percent indicates customers’ inventories are considered too low.

The three manufacturing industries reporting customers’ inventories as being too high during December are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The eight industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during December — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Primary Metals. Seven industries reported no change in customers’ inventories in December compared to November.

Customers’ Inventories	% Reporting	%Too High	%About Right	%Too Low	Net	Index

Dec 2011	73	10	65	25	-15	42.5
Nov 2011	65	19	62	19	0	50.0
Oct 2011	71	12	63	25	-13	43.5
Sep 2011	73	17	64	19	-2	49.0

Prices(c)

The ISM Prices Index registered 47.5 percent in December, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 45 percent reported in November. This is the third consecutive month of contraction in the Prices Index. In December, 21 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices, 26 percent reported paying lower prices and 53 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in November. A Prices Index above 49.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, six industries report paying increased prices during the month of December in the following order: Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment. The eight industries reporting paying lower prices on average during the month of December — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Paper Products; and Machinery.

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