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January Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; PMI at 54.1%; New Orders, Production and Employment Growing; Supplier Deliveries Slower; Inventories Contracting

Dépèche transmise le 1 février 2012 par Business Wire

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January for the 30th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 32nd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®.

“Once again, business continues to be strong.”

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The PMI registered 54.1 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 53.1 percent, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 30th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 2.8 percentage points from December’s seasonally adjusted reading to 57.6 percent, reflecting the 33rd consecutive month of growth in new orders. Prices of raw materials increased for the first time in the last four months. Manufacturing is starting out the year on a positive note, with new orders, production and employment all growing in January.”

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, nine are reporting growth in January, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; and Primary Metals. The seven industries reporting contraction in January — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Textile Mills.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

“Still seeing raw materials pricing moving down in general, but expect inflation later in the quarter.” (Chemical Products)
“Year starting a little slow, but customers are positive about increased business in 2012.” (Machinery)
“Once again, business continues to be strong.” (Paper Products)
“Pricing remains in check with the demand we are seeing. Supplier deliveries are on time or early.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
“The economy seems to be slowly improving.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
“Business lost to offshore is coming back.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
“Business remains strong. Order intake is great — more than 20 percent above budget.” (Primary Metals)
“Indications are that 2012 business environment will improve over 2011.” (Transportation Equipment)
“Market conditions appear to be improving, with the outlook for 2012 better yet.” (Wood Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE JANUARY 2012

Index		Series Index Jan		Series Index Dec		Percentage Point Change	Direction	Rate of Change	Trend(a) (Months)

PMI		54.1		53.1		+1.0	Growing	Faster	30
New Orders		57.6		54.8		+2.8	Growing	Faster	33
Production		55.7		58.9		-3.2	Growing	Slower	32
Employment		54.3		54.8		-0.5	Growing	Slower	28
Supplier Deliveries		53.6		51.5		+2.1	Slowing	Faster	31
Inventories		49.5		45.5		+4.0	Contracting	Slower	4
Customers’ Inventories		47.5		42.5		+5.0	Too Low	Slower	2
Prices		55.5		47.5		+8.0	Increasing	From Decreasing	1
Backlog of Orders		52.5		48.0		+4.5	Growing	From Contracting	1
Exports		55.0		53.0		+2.0	Growing	Faster	3
Imports		52.5		54.0		-1.5	Growing	Slower	2
OVERALL ECONOMY Manufacturing Sector							Growing	Faster	32
	Growing		Faster		30

(a) Number of months moving in current direction

Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Caustic Soda; Gasoline; High Density Polyethylene; Oil; Stainless Steel; Steel (2); Steel — Cold Rolled; and Titanium Dioxide.

Commodities Down in Price

Aluminum (5); Aluminum Products (2); Natural Gas (6); Plastic Products (4); Plastic Resins (6); Polyethylene; Polypropylene (3); Polypropylene Resin; and Steel Products.

Commodities in Short Supply

Hard Drives (2); and Integrated Circuit Boards.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

JANUARY 2012 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

PMI

Manufacturing continued its growth in January as the PMI registered 54.1 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point when compared to December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 53.1 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42.6 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 32nd consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 30th consecutive month. Holcomb stated, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI for January (54.1 percent) corresponds to a 3.9 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month	PMI	Month	PMI

Jan 2012	54.1	Jul 2011	51.4
Dec 2011	53.1	Jun 2011	55.8
Nov 2011	52.2	May 2011	54.2
Oct 2011	51.8	Apr 2011	59.7
Sep 2011	52.5	Mar 2011	59.7
Aug 2011	52.5	Feb 2011	59.8
Average for 12 months – 54.7 High – 59.8 Low – 51.4

New Orders

ISM’s New Orders Index registered 57.6 percent in January, which is an increase of 2.8 percentage points when compared to the seasonally adjusted December reading of 54.8 percent, and represents a continuation of growth for the 33rd consecutive month. (Due to ISM’s seasonal adjustments, this index now demonstrates growth for the past 33 consecutive months.) A New Orders Index above 52.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The nine industries reporting growth in new orders in January — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The five industries reporting decreases in new orders in January are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Chemical Products.

New Orders	%Better	%Same	%Worse	Net	Index

Jan 2012	35	45	20	+15	57.6
Dec 2011	29	44	27	+2	54.8
Nov 2011	23	55	22	+1	55.0
Oct 2011	22	53	25	-3	53.4

Production

ISM’s Production Index registered 55.7 percent in January, which is a decrease of 3.2 percentage points when compared to the December reading of 58.9 percent (seasonally adjusted). This indicates growth for the 32nd consecutive month. An index above 51.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The nine industries reporting growth in production during the month of January — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting a decrease in production in January — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Textile Mills.

Production	%Better	%Same	%Worse	Net	Index

Jan 2012	27	53	20	+7	55.7
Dec 2011	27	54	19	+8	58.9
Nov 2011	24	55	21	+3	55.7
Oct 2011	21	59	20	+1	52.7

Employment

ISM’s Employment Index registered 54.3 percent in January, which is 0.5 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted 54.8 percent reported in December. This is the 28th consecutive month of growth in the Employment Index. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, eight reported growth in employment in January in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Machinery. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in January — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; and Textile Mills.

Employment	%Higher	%Same	%Lower	Net	Index

Jan 2012	23	59	18	+5	54.3
Dec 2011	23	58	19	+4	54.8
Nov 2011	22	57	21	+1	52.4
Oct 2011	22	63	15	+7	54.0

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in January as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 53.6 percent, which is 2.1 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 51.5 percent. This is the 31st consecutive month supplier deliveries have slowed relative to the prior month. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The six industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in January — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products. The three industries reporting faster deliveries in January are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; and Chemical Products. Nine industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in January compared to December.

Supplier Deliveries	%Slower	%Same	%Faster	Net	Index

Jan 2012	9	84	7	+2	53.6
Dec 2011	8	79	13	-5	51.5
Nov 2011	9	79	12	-3	51.3
Oct 2011	10	81	9	+1	52.2

Inventories(b)

The Inventories Index registered 49.5 percent in January, 4 percentage points higher than the 45.5 percent registered in December. (The Inventories Index is no longer seasonally adjusted, and therefore the reading reported in December of 47.1 percent was revised to reflect this change.) An Inventories Index greater than 42.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The six industries reporting higher inventories in January — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The 10 industries reporting decreases in inventories in January — listed in order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Paper Products.

Inventories	%Higher	%Same	%Lower	Net	Index

Jan 2012	21	57	22	-1	49.5
Dec 2011	21	49	30	-9	45.5
Nov 2011	16	61	23	-7	46.5
Oct 2011	17	59	24	-7	46.5

Customers’ Inventories(b)

The ISM Customers’ Inventories Index registered 47.5 percent in January, which is 5 percentage points higher than in December when the index registered 42.5 percent. Customers’ inventories have registered at or below 50 percent for 34 consecutive months. A reading below 50 percent indicates customers’ inventories are considered too low.

The five manufacturing industries reporting customers’ inventories as being too high during January are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. The five industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during January are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Eight industries reported no change in customers’ inventories in January compared to December.

Customers’ Inventories	% Reporting	%Too High	%About Right	%Too Low	Net	Index

Jan 2012	64	17	61	22	-5	47.5
Dec 2011	73	10	65	25	-15	42.5
Nov 2011	65	19	62	19	0	50.0
Oct 2011	71	12	63	25	-13	43.5

Prices(b)

The ISM Prices Index registered 55.5 percent in January, 8 percentage points higher than the 47.5 percent reported in December. This is the first month the Prices Index has reflected an increase in the price of raw materials since September 2011, when the index registered 56 percent. In January, 30 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices, 19 percent reported paying lower prices and 51 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in December. A Prices Index above 49.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 industries report paying increased prices during the month of January in the following order: Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. The four industries reporting paying lower prices on average during the month of January are: Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Jan 2012

+11

55.5

Dec 2011

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