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NMI at 56.8%; January Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 59.5%; New Orders Index at 59.4%; Employment Index at 57.4%

Dépèche transmise le 3 février 2012 par Business Wire

NMI at 56.8%; January Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 59.5%; New Orders Index at 59.4%; Employment Index at 57.4%

NMI at 56.8%; January Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 59.5%; New Orders Index at 59.4%; Employment Index at 57.4%

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the 25th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

“There seems to be some stabilization in the economy as well as [in the] supply chain. This seems to be calming inventory and sales positions.”

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The NMI registered 56.8 percent in January, 3.8 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 53 percent registered in December, and indicating continued growth at a faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 59.5 percent, which is 3.6 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 55.9 percent reported in December, reflecting growth for the 30th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 4.8 percentage points to 59.4 percent, and the Employment Index increased by 7.6 percentage points to 57.4 percent, indicating substantial growth in employment after one month of contraction. The Prices Index increased 1.5 percentage points to 63.5 percent, indicating prices increased at a slightly faster rate in January when compared to December. According to the NMI, 12 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in January. Respondents’ comments are mostly positive about business conditions. There is concern about cost pressures and the sustainability of the recent spike in activity.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)

The 12 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in January based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Other Services; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Wholesale Trade. The four industries reporting contraction in January are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Utilities; and Public Administration.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “Overall business conditions to improve. We continue to outperform previous business cycles.” (Information)
  • “We are seeing increased contractor bidding and activity in Q1 2012.” (Construction)
  • “Small business borrowing continues to be slow.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “New fiscal year, new budgets — expecting to show an increase in sales in first quarter.” (Other Services)
  • “Economy continues to show signs of improvement and the company revenue is improving slightly, but is very susceptible to pricing and cost pressures.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “There seems to be some stabilization in the economy as well as [in the] supply chain. This seems to be calming inventory and sales positions.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Business is still stable; however, inflation in food prices is still a problem.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS(a)
JANUARY 2012

       
Index Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing

Series
Index
Jan

   

Series
Index
Dec

 

Percent
Point
Change

 

Direction

 

Rate of
Change

 

Trend(b)
(Months)

Series
Index
Jan

 

Series
Index
Dec

 

Percent
Point
Change

 
NMI/PMI 56.8 53.0 +3.8 Growing Faster 25 54.1 53.1 +1.0
Business Activity/

Production

59.5 55.9 +3.6 Growing Faster 30 55.7 58.9 -3.2
New Orders 59.4 54.6 +4.8 Growing Faster 30 57.6 54.8 +2.8
Employment 57.4 49.8 +7.6 Growing From Contracting 1 54.3 54.8 -0.5
Supplier Deliveries 51.0 51.5 -0.5 Slowing Slower 2 53.6 51.5 +2.1
Inventories 47.0 48.5 -1.5 Contracting Faster 2 49.5 45.5 +4.0
Prices 63.5 62.0 +1.5 Increasing Faster 30 55.5 47.5 +8.0
Backlog of Orders 49.5 45.5 +4.0 Contracting Slower 4 52.5 48.0 +4.5
New Export Orders 56.5 51.0 +5.5 Growing Faster 6 55.0 53.0 +2.0
Imports 55.0 54.0 +1.0 Growing Faster 2 52.5 54.0 -1.5
Inventory Sentiment 58.5 59.5 -1.0 Too High Slower 176 N/A N/A N/A
Customers’ Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 47.5 42.5 +5.0

(a) Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries.

(b) Number of months moving in current direction

Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Airfares; Beef; Chemical Products; Chicken; Crab; Coffee (2); #1 Diesel Fuel (2); #2 Diesel Fuel (3); Fuel; Gasoline; Medical Supplies (2); Paper; Petroleum Based Products; Resin Based Products; Vehicles; and Wire.

Commodities Down in Price

Corrugated Cartons is the only commodity reported down in price.

Commodities in Short Supply

Crab; #2 Diesel Fuel (2); Fiber Cable; and Pharmaceuticals.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

JANUARY 2012 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI

In January, the NMI registered 56.8 percent, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 25th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

NMI HISTORY

          Month                     NMI                               Month                     NMI
 
Jan 2012 56.8 Jul 2011 53.4
Dec 2011 53.0 Jun 2011 53.3
Nov 2011 52.6 May 2011 54.5
Oct 2011 52.6 Apr 2011 54.4
Sep 2011 52.6 Mar 2011 56.3
Aug 2011 53.8 Feb 2011 59.0

Average for 12 months – 54.4
High – 59.0
Low – 52.6

Business Activity

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in January registered 59.5 percent, 3.6 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 55.9 percent registered in December. Ten industries reported increased business activity, and four industries reported decreased activity for the month of January. Comments from respondents include: “Expenditures and projects that were pushed back on in late 2011 are now being executed” and “Seasonal growth/improved economic environment.”

The industries reporting growth of business activity in January — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Educational Services; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Public Administration. The industries reporting decreased business activity in January are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Mining; and Wholesale Trade.

Business Activity           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Jan 2012 28 54 18 59.5
Dec 2011 28 54 18 55.9
Nov 2011 26 55 19 56.1
Oct 2011 24 57 19 53.3

New Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in January for the 30th consecutive month. The index registered 59.4 percent, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted 54.6 percent reported in December. Comments from respondents include: “2012 capital budgets drive more orders/requests” and “Increased requests for proposal.”

The 12 industries reporting growth of new orders in January — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The two industries reporting contraction of new orders in January are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Mining.

New Orders           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Jan 2012 28 57 15 59.4
Dec 2011 24 57 19 54.6
Nov 2011 23 61 16 54.1
Oct 2011 23 57 20 52.7

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew substantially in January, as ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 57.4 percent. This reflects an increase of 7.6 percentage points when compared to the seasonally adjusted 49.8 percent registered in December. Nine industries reported increased employment, five industries reported decreased employment, and four industries reported unchanged employment compared to December. Comments from respondents include: “Ramping up to meet increase in revenues due to expansion and acquisitions” and “More job awards.”

The industries reporting an increase in employment in January — listed in order — are: Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Other Services. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in January are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Educational Services; Mining; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Employment           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Jan 2012 18 66 16 57.4
Dec 2011 14 68 18 49.8
Nov 2011 15 68 17 50.3
Oct 2011 16 64 20 52.3

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 51 percent in January, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 51.5 percent registered in December, indicating that supplier deliveries were slower in January. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The eight industries reporting slower deliveries in January — listed in order — are: Mining; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Utilities; Information; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. The four industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in January are: Construction; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Finance & Insurance. Six industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in January compared to December.

Supplier Deliveries           %Slower         %Same         %Faster         Index
 
Jan 2012 7 88 5 51.0
Dec 2011 9 85 6 51.5
Nov 2011 4 92 4 50.0
Oct 2011 7 90 3 52.0

Inventories

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index contracted in January. The index registered 47 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 48.5 percent reading that was reported in December. Of the total respondents in January, 26 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “High sales lowered inventory” and “Bleeding down inventory and liquidating obsolete material.”

The five industries reporting an increase in inventories in January are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Information; and Construction. The 11 industries reporting decreases in inventories in January — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Other Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Inventories           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Jan 2012 16 62 22 47.0
Dec 2011 19 59 22 48.5
Nov 2011 20 65 15 52.5
Oct 2011 14 63 23 45.5

Prices

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased at a slightly faster rate in January. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for January registered 63.5 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 62 percent reported in December. In January, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 31 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 64 percent, and 5 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.

Thirteen non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid, in the following order: Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Educational Services; Mining; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The three industries reporting a decrease in prices paid are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

Prices           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Jan 2012 31 64 5 63.5
Dec 2011 23 70 7 62.0
Nov 2011 23 72 5 62.2
Oct 2011 21 68 11 61.0

Backlog of Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index contracted in January for the seventh time in eight months. The index registered 49.5 percent, 4 percentage points higher than the 45.5 percent reported in December. Of the total respondents in January, 39 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The four industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in January are: Retail Trade; Information; Other Services; and Construction. The four industries reporting lower backlog of orders in January are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Public Administration. Ten industries reported no change in order backlogs for the month of January compared to December.

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Backlog of Orders           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Jan 2012 16 67 17 49.5
Dec 2011 11 69 20 45.5
Nov 2011 13 70