JPRS mon blog !
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lequebecois
Inscrit le 11/02/2007 |
# 20 novembre 2011 06:25 | |
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erreur
(Dernière édition le 20 novembre 2011 06:27) _________________ Le bonheur est une pause entre deux emmerdes ! Adepte de la discutaille du coin du comptoir du café de la gare |
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lequebecois
Inscrit le 11/02/2007 |
# 20 novembre 2011 06:26 | |
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Bonjour, Voici un projet de jet privé beaucoup plus crédible que celui-ci avec une vitesse beaucoup plus réaliste: Mach 1,8. De Gulfstream et la NASA : http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/hea ... tation.pdf _________________ Le bonheur est une pause entre deux emmerdes ! Adepte de la discutaille du coin du comptoir du café de la gare |
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Beochien
Inscrit le 13/02/2007 |
# 11 décembre 2011 19:35 | |
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Bonjour ! Tout le monde y va de sa motorisation électrique pour le Taxiing des MC ! C'est de mode, et vu les temps d'attente de certains aéroports, celà devient plus que recommandable pour les MC ! Jusqu'à 700 litres d'écos, par vol, et probablement moins de nuisances sonores, et qq écos sur l'usure des moteurs principaux...et surtout des freins, et moins de risque de FOD ! WheelTug va équiper les 737 d'EL-Al donc, un client de lancement ! Traction avant pour ceux là Bi moteur quand même! Peut être l'option la plus légère ! Et Wheel Tug a aussi des vues sur les A320 Séries ! 300 livres 28 Mph, certifié pour 2013, 737 Classic donc, pas de mention côté APU ! Un peu de lecture pour les courageux ! http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... ng-364370/ http://www.wheeltug.gi/fuel_savings.shtml http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WheelTug http://www.wired.com/autopia/2011/11/co ... -electric/ Extrait : The twin electric motors and accessories installed on the nose gear weigh about 300 pounds. WheelTug says the system is weight neutral because it is offset by the ability to carry less fuel. Using the motors, the pilot can taxi at speeds up to 28 miles per hour. Several companies are exploring similar ideas to eliminate the need to run the large main engines on the ground. WheelTug is the first to announce a launch customer with a device that can be retrofitted to existing aircraft without installing external power supplies or resources. Beyond the fuel savings, airlines can reduce delays by eliminating the need to rely on tugs. Delays mean lost revenue, so it provides airlines with another way to cut costs and increase the bottom line. The electric drive also reduces the chance of an engine being damaged by ingesting debris, something that most often happens on the ground. WheelTug hopes to have the system certified by 2013. It also is developing a version for the Airbus A320 series. El Al Airlines hopes to equip 20 of its 737s with the system upon certification. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Le candidat "Officiel" pour le A320 , c'est Safran/Honeywell ! Plus complexe, peut être mieux intégré, mais plus lent en développement! Ils visent le NEO, 2016, avec des rétrofits possibles sur les A320 "Classic" Pas vu (Retrouvé) de chiffres sur ce projet (Poids-Vitesse) mais j'ai dû voir passer dans les 200 kg, il y a qq temps ! A lire : http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/ ... %20A320NEO http://www.safran-group.com/site-safran ... l-commence http://www.safranmbd.com/spip.php?rubrique141 Extrait : Developed in partnership between Honeywell and Safran, the Electric Green Taxing System can significantly improve airline operational efficiency and provide environmental benefits by slashing the carbon and other emissions created during runway taxi operations. System Operation Using the airplane’s Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) generator to power motors in the main wheels, the Electric Green Taxiing System allows aircraft to taxi without requiring the use of primary engines. Each of the aircraft’s powered wheels is equipped with an electric motor-reduction gearbox-clutch assembly to drive the wheels, while unique power electronics and system controllers give pilots total control of the aircraft’s speed, direction and braking while on the ground. Meeting Airline Needs With operating costs and environmental initiatives at the top of airline concerns, the Electric Green Taxiing System provides a viable solution for higher performing and greener operations. By adopting this new aircraft system, you can save several hundred thousand dollars per aircraft per year and improve your bottom line. - Lower Fuel Burn – As taxiing operations burn a significant amount of fuel—as much as five million tons of fuel per year for short-haul aircraft—the Electric Green Taxiing System can result in savings of up to 4% in total fuel consumption. - Increased Performance – Aircraft equipped with the system will be able to “pushback and go” more quickly, reducing both gate and tarmac congestion; improving on-time departure performance; and saving valuable time on the ground. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Et un "Petit dernier" qui apparaît ! Sur FlightGlobal, l'article à suivre ! L'association Lufthansa Technik / L3 qui apparaît, surgie de nulle part ! Ils immobilisent un A320 de la Luft, une semaine, montent en "Provisoire", moteurs, couplent le manche et l'électronique, et, en avant, ils s'amusent (Testent) avec pendant 2 jours, vérifient les paramètres, démontent tout et renvoient l'avion en service ! Et en plus ça marche trés bien ! Moteurs sur le MLG, comme Safran ! Chapeau pour l'efficacité ! Pourquoi faire compliqué quand on peut faire simple ... Les derniers venus pourraient bien battre Safran, sur la ligne ! Pas de poids, pour ce proto assemblé à partir de composants dispo ... 25 Kmh seulement, mais des essais totalement satisfaisants ! A priori, un vrai désign et un prochain développement destiné au rétrofit des A320, et probablement pour les NEO aussi ! A lire : http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... or-365815/ Lufthansa and technology company L-3 Communications have conducted taxi trials with an Airbus A320 equipped with electrical motors on both main landing gears (MLG) as part of a feasibility study to gain initial operational experience and data about a MLG-fitted electrical drive system. The motors and control units were temporarily installed on the aircraft at Frankfurt International airport earlier this week. They are based on existing industrial components manufactured by L-3's Magnet Motor subsidiary in Starnberg, near Munich, and already in use on other applications such as ground vehicles. Voir Vidéo sur le lien An engineering team comprising staff from Airbus, L-3 and Lufthansa Technik (LHT) replaced the brake assemblies of the inboard MLG wheels with drive units, each one containing a liquid-cooled electrical motor, powered by the aircraft's APU, and planetary gearbox. Voir l'image © Michael Gubisch/Flightglobal Power supply cables and coolant hoses were installed along the rear of the MLG, across the landing flap trailing edge, upper wing surface and through opened passenger windows into the aircraft's interior. System control and ancillary equipment was installed in the twinjet's aft cargo compartment, which had been fitted with a special door with two large openings for cooling. Operational controls were fitted on the flight deck and coupled with the nose wheel steering system. The two drive units were synchronized so that if, for example, the nose wheel was deflected to its 75-degree maximum, the motor on the respective inside wheel was stopped. Voir l'image © Michael Gubisch/Flightglobal The pilots reported that the demonstrator system not only handled well, but was more responsive than the main engines normally used for the task, said Christian Mutz, project manager innovation at LHT. The team trialled a broad range of ground manoeuvres, including sustained taxiing up to a maximum speed of 25kph (13.5kts), a 180-degree turn on a 40m-wide (130ft) taxiway, runs on sloped surfaces, and various self-powered reverse movements. Approximately 40 test points were covered to assess values such as brake away momentum for taxi start from standstill, acceleration, energy consumption, heat development and tyre deformation in different conditions. Voir l'image © Michael Gubisch/Flightglobal The team varied tyre pressure, switched off one of the two drive units, and trialled taxiing with a fully fuelled aircraft. Despite strong winds, with gusts up to 70kt, at Frankfurt airport on 7 December, no adverse handling was encountered with the electric taxiing system, said Mutz. Acceleration values were a key focus particular in regard to crossing runways, for which aircraft usually must have two engines running in case of redundancy. The flight crew also operated the system while the engines were running. Mutz said that while the powerplants provided sufficient thrust at ground idle to move the aircraft forward, the drive units were still able to reverse the twinjet. This was not only possible along a linear track, but the pilots were able to do S-turns and tight turns, he said. Mutz added that the team was surprised about how agile and mobile the aircraft had become, and how easily the pilots adapted to the controls. Voir l'image © Michael Gubisch/Flightglobal The test data will now be evaluated and flow in the specification of a potential electric drive system in the future. L-3 and Lufthansa Technik are planning to design a system which could be retrofitted to in-service aircraft. Installation of the demonstrator system took two days before tests began on 6 December. The equipment is currently being removed again, and the aircraft (reg. D-AIZF) is due to re-enter passenger service on 10 December. ------------------------- C'est bien, les Wheel Tug, c'est pour 2013 sur les B737, et vers 2015-16 pour les A320 ! (Dernière édition le 11 décembre 2011 19:41) _________________ JPRS |
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Beochien
Inscrit le 13/02/2007 |
# 14 décembre 2011 12:34 | |
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Bonjour ! Bon, la nième version de AviationWeek, Andrew Compart cette foi ! Rien de bien nouveau ! Encore qq % qui relèvent plus du PR de Boeing ! C'est bien ! J.Albaught, annonce 1500 "Firm commitments" pour 2012, (CEKOICA ? un "Firm commitment") Rien d'anormal les cdes "Fermes" de A320 NEO ont une bonne chance d'être vers les 2000 à ce moment ... Et ni A ni B ne peuvent espérer, ni vendre ni produire beaucoup plus, et encore moins prendre 25% du marché de l'autre ... http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/ ... annel=comm Donc, un statut quo à la vista, modulé par les remises ! Et, chacun, sa clientèle, somme toute "Relativement" fidèle ... Airbus a commencé ... Boeing se replace maintenant ! Bonjour les 48% ! Seule différentielles sérieuses ... Les 2 ans d'avance de Airbus, côté timing ! Les +/- 1500 A320NEO ferme, bouclent la production, pour 2018 (Et encore, certaines cdes vont un peu plus loin) Boeing avec le 737MAX ne pense pas beaucoup produire en 2017 ... 4 cdes pour Southwest, c'est tout .. D'autre part, les progrés éventuels des GTF de P&W, vers 2017-18, qui ont un fort potentiel d'améliorations du côté de la partie chaude ... sans rentrer tout de suite dans les PB de CMC ! On attend que le 737MAX soit enfin Gelé qq part en 2012, quand même, avant que Boeing puisse avancer autant de cdes fermes ... les clients traditionels de Boeing, ne vont pas jouer à la roulette ! M'est avis que Boeing attend de savoir ou va le LeapX pour le B737MAX, vers 2017, avant de vraiment s'engager, hors de son buzz "PR" ! En gros ... que faudra t'il faire sur l'Airframe du 737MAX, pour atteindre les promesses, VS ... ce que va donner la motorisation de CFMI ! Bonne question, visiblement non résolue today ! (Dernière édition le 14 décembre 2011 12:50) _________________ JPRS |
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Beochien
Inscrit le 13/02/2007 |
# 17 décembre 2011 11:40 | |
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Bonjour ! Leeham, nous commente un article de Flightglobal "Pro" à souscription, concernant Southwest ..; Déjà partiellement vu ... mais qq nuances à interprêter ! Comme quoi ce serait le 737MAX 800 qui prévaudrait dans l'avenir ... Et ils commentent que Airbus n'est pas passé si loin du but chez SouthWest ! Possible, ce qui explique encore mieux la vigueur de la réaction de Boeing, côté prix , c'est le plus probable ... Bonjour les 48% ... de remise ! Alors que Airbus se targue dans ses journées à Londres, de "Bien" avoir vendu ses NEO ! Une indirecte, pas si innocente, inspirée par JL certainement ... lequel n'a pas parlé à Londres ??? Il doit essayer de conclure qq derniers coups avant la fin de l'année, l'ami John Leahy ! Bien, un peu de diplomatie et de PR, de la part de SW, VS Airbus, afin d'éviter de se fourrer dans un tunnel, comme Ryanair, ne peut faire de mal à personne ! Disons, la même méthode que Ryanair, avec le savoir vivre en prime ! La politesse normale, VS Airbus qui a certainement dû présenter une offre sérieuse, P&W aussi d'ailleurs ! Pour ce qui est du LeapX, on n'a pas l'impression que SW est trés convaincu, et un poil sur la défensive ... mais il faudra faire avec ... et comme il y a encore 6 ans devant pour y arriver ... celà reste possible ! Et pour P&W aussi d'ailleurs, qui auront certainement qq PIP's à 2-3% sous le coude vers 2018, juste pour remettre au boulot CFMI ! ------------- Le lien, et des extraits de Leeham, à lire ! ----------- http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2011/12 ... #more-5581 Brian Hirshman, SVP Technical Operations, told Flightglobal Pro on 15 December that the carrier is up-gauging its fleet, which it began doing this year with acquisition of the 737-800 for the first time. Southwest, throughout its history since is 1971 birth, has relied on the 737-200/300/500/700, preferring smaller sized aircraft and high frequency as its business model. et ... “We gave it a very, very serious look, closer than we had ever looked at Airbus,” Hirshman said. “We spent a lot of time understanding how it would perform our missions. At the end of the day we decided Max better fit our profile. We did not use [Airbus] as a negotiating tactic. We were dead serious. The neo is a good product.” ----------- An independent consultant with knowledge of the competition told Flightglobal Pro that Airbus came closer to winning the order than people realize. Southwest, during its press conference, cited 737 Max fuel savings figures of 10-11% compared with Boeing’s oft-stated target of 10-12%. Hirshman said Southwest’s analysis for the 737-7 and 737-8 concluded the former figures are “good numbers.” Hirshman also said Southwest’s analysis supported the CFM and Boeing statements that a 68 inch fan for the LEAP engine is optimal for the 737, despite the very public argument set forth by Airbus that the 737 LEAP’s smaller fan compared with neo’s 78 inch LEAP engine won’t be as efficient. “We spent a tremendous amount of time to understand the differences,” Hirshman said. “Sixty eight does appear to be optimal size for the airplane. There is this illusion that bigger is better. We actually agree with Boeing and CFM.” The customized core will make the difference, Hirshman said. The core will be standard LEAP architecture and design but will be specifically designed for the 737 Max. Nonetheless, in evaluating the A320neo, which is powered by another version of the LEAP as well as Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan (GTF), Hirshman praised the GTF. “We were quite intrigued with GTF technology and we think it is pretty bold and innovative. We think it has a great future in commercial aviation. The concept is not new and makes complete sense. Intuitively it made sense. Pratt has a good product there,” he said. Southwest is scheduled to get only four 737 Max in 2017. Hirshman confirmed that this means a fourth quarter entry-into-service. (Dernière édition le 17 décembre 2011 11:43) _________________ JPRS |
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Beochien
Inscrit le 13/02/2007 |
# 25 avril 2012 20:47 | |
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Bonjour ! Un procés entre ILFC /AIG, et ALC /SUH ... qui est lancé ! Si les Accusations de ILFC sont reconnues, c'est grave .... pour SUH Mais SUH ne le prend pas vraiment au sérieux ! Info-Intox, il faudra des années pour savoir ! Dire qu'il y a 2 ans AIG voulait vendre ILFC à SUH ! Mais c'était un peu gros, quand même ! Flight Global a le mérite de bien expliquer l'affaire ainsi que les fondements de l'accusation, et avec force détails ! On a quand même affaire à 2 acteurs majeurs du marché, dont le premier assureur mondial (Même sous chapter 11) et AIG réclame des centaines millions de dommages ! Si cette action prospère , c'est plus qu'un feuilleton! Il faut reconnaître que SUH a quasi déménagé ILFC vers ALC, Top Executives, datas etc, et pire, il a lancé des négoces et détourné des clients avec ses futurs cadres toujours présents chez ILFC ! En général, (Si c'est prouvé) ça ne pardonne pas en justice ! C'est un réel risque pour SUH et Air Lease Corp ! Et certainement néfaste pour les besoins de lever des capitaux, côté ALC ! ------------- De FlightGlobal, Laura Mueller, le lien, et l'article ------------- http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... ft-371091/ Updated: AIG sues ex-ILFC execs, alleging trade secrets theft Air Lease Corporation (ALC) chief executive Steven Udvar-Hazy and 10 of the lessor's top managers are facing legal action from American International Group (AIG), parent of International Lease Finance Corporation, alleging they stole trade secrets before leaving the latter business in 2010. AIG is seeking "hundreds of millions of dollars" in compensation. AIG filed a civil lawsuit with the Los Angeles Superior Court on 24 April, naming Udvar-Hazy, John Plueger, Marc Baer, Grant Levy, Michael Bai, Housni Chraibi, Lance Pekala, Chi Yan, Robert McNitt, Jenny Van Le and William MacCary. In a statement, ALC says it will fight the lawsuit. The insurer says in court documents it is "entitled to recover a substantial portion of ALC's business, which may be hundreds of millions of dollars." AIG alleges before resigning their employment, the former ILFC executives "engaged in massive downloading and theft of ILFC's confidential trade secret information (several thousand electronic files). These flies were then loaded en masse onto ALC's servers." AIG says forensic analysis shows that many of these files became the "blueprint for customer communications, contracts, pricing, marketing and other strategies upon which ALC built its business." Included in these files was ILFC's "sin list" - the lessor's detailed payment history spreadsheet. AIG alleges this list provided ALC with a competitive advantage "particularly as a start-up that was dependent on cash flow, because it signalled the payment activity of the customer population." AIG alleges before Udvar-Hazy could hire employees at ALC he needed to "land several aircraft deals quickly in order to attract lender and investors." While he was still the acting chief executive of ILFC, Udvar-Hazy directed the firm's executives to "divert company opportunities to his new company," AIG claims. After Udvar-Hazy resigned he instructed these individual to "remain behind at ILFC to finalise the deals." "Only after these deals were secured did Udvar-Hazy give these executives the green light to resign from ILFC and join his new company," the court documents state. AIG highlights three aircraft financing deals set up by ALC with Air France, Air New Zealand and Garuda. It alleges that in January 2010, instead of securing the sale and leaseback of multiple aircraft with Air France for ILFC, Michael Baer, then the firm's president of marketing, used his personal email account to negotiate a deal on behalf of ALC. Baer included Udvar-Hazy in email exchanges, says AIG. "When Air France expressed reservations about doing business with ALC, which had not opened for business and was not yet funded, Baer (still employed by ILFC) and Udvar-Hazy jointly assured Air France that ALC was already purchasing and leasing planes and had secured over $2 billion in credit with promises of funding soon to come." Also in the same month, Grant Levy, then a vice-president at ILFC, was supposed to be negotiating a deal with Air New Zealand to lease two aircraft from ILFC, alleges AIG. Instead, AIG says Udvar-Hazy and Levy "persuaded" Air New Zealand to lease these aircraft from ALC. "Incredibly, Levy suggested to Airbus that ILFC had authorised him to negotiate on ALC's behalf so that he could pressure Airbus to extend ILFC's preferred purchasing terms to ALC. At the completion of negotiations, Levy simply substituted ALC's for ILFC's name into an ILFC agreement, which the parties executed," AIG claims. Additionally, on 2 March, AIG alleges Levy, while still a senior ILFC executive, directed a sale and leaseback opportunity on several aircraft with Garuda to ALC by providing the airline with Udvar-Hazy's personal email account. ALC, which Udvar-Hazy and Plueger launched in 2010, says in a statement that ILFC filed the compliant because the lessor "has struggled with an ageing fleet, heavy debt load, and loss of talent, and has failed to complete a planned IPO [initial public offering]. "Unable to compete effectively and perceiving Air Lease as a growing threat, AIG/ILFC has now resorted to a baseless trade secrets lawsuit that Air Lease will vigorously contest and defeat. "And while AIG/ILFC wastes its time in court, Air Lease, under the leadership of Steven Udvar-Hazy, one of the most influential figures in the aircraft leasing industry, will continue to focus on providing the best products and services for airlines worldwide." (Dernière édition le 25 avril 2012 20:53) _________________ JPRS |
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Beochien
Inscrit le 13/02/2007 |
# 1 mai 2012 10:08 | |
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Bonjour ! Juste pour signaler un article trés bien documenté sur Yahoo, en provenance de Fitch Rating ... Concerné : US Airways .. . et le financement de ses cdes de A321, en cours , et dans une ambiance de merger avec AA ! Un petit "paquet" mais trés significatif ! Finalement un trés long article concernant les MC en général, et la pérennité des derniers achats de A321 classic ... et de leur valeurs résiduelles ! C'est on ne peut plus positif , encourageant, et pas du tout dans le sens de certaines tendances critiques ! Et ... venant de Fitch, difficile de penser que l'article est biaisé par les constructeursou les lessors ! Bon, je ne sais pas non plus, si Fitch est chargé qq part de la promotion des certificats de US Airways ! Mais à priori c'est une agence de quotation indépendante, Bercy en sait qq chose, donc à prendre au sérieux ! Bon courage, l'article est long, mais tout est à lire ! ---------------- Un extrait et le lien de Fitch, sur Yahoo Finance -------------------- http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fitch-rat ... 00777.html NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Fitch Ratings has assigned a 'B' rating to US Airways Inc's (US Airways) proposed $118.6 million of series 2012-1 class C pass-through certificates (C-tranche) with an expected maturity of October 2015. The proceeds of this offering, along with the proceeds of the class A and B certificates will be used to acquire equipment notes (the notes) issued by US Airways ('B-'/Stable Outlook) and secured by 12 new Airbus A321-200 aircraft scheduled for delivery between September 2012 and March 2013 and two currently owned A321-200s (delivered in 2009). Proceeds from this transaction will initially be held in escrow and deposited with the designated Depository, Natixis S.A. ('A+/F1+'/Negative Outlook) and withdrawn to purchase the notes as the aircraft are financed upon delivery. The new delivery aircraft will replace older, less fuel efficient aircraft which US Airways is retiring. US Airways' payment obligations under these notes will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed by US Airways Group, Inc. (LCC). A full list of LCC and US Airways Inc.'s corporate ratings are listed at the end of the release. -------------------- With 14 aircraft, the size of the collateral pool is slightly bigger than the US Airways 2010-1 and 2011-1 EETCs but modest compared to some EETCs issued by other carriers. The aircraft will represent 4% of LCC's narrowbody fleet. The collateral in this transaction with only one aircraft type is also less diverse than US Airways' recent deals which included a mix of single-aisle (both A320 and A321) and twin-aisle (A330) aircraft types. The lack of diversity is mitigated by the high Affirmation Factor for this transaction. The A320 family is the only narrowbody fleet for US Airways and forms the backbone of the carrier's domestic focused route network. US Airway's recent deliveries and pending orders within the A320 family have primarily been for A321-200, and the collateral aircraft in this deal represent the youngest vintage in the carrier's fleet. Overall, Fitch considers the collateral quality to be fairly solid as these A321-200s are viewed as a (mid-range) Tier 1 aircraft that would have better liquidity and lower value declines than less attractive aircraft models in a potential aviation or economic downturn. THE AFFIRMATION FACTOR (PRIMARY RATINGS RATIONALE FOR SUBORDINATED TRANCHES) Fitch's considers the Affirmation Factor for the aircraft in this portfolio to be very high as the A321s are considered strategically important to LCC. The airline is moving towards becoming an all Airbus operator on the narrowbody side, with the A320 family of aircraft expected to be the only single aisle planes in LCC's fleet. Although LCC currently has 47 737 classics, management is currently in the process of phasing out all its older, less fuel efficient 737s by 2015. The A320 family forms the backbone of LCC's domestic focused route network and aircraft constitute the newest and most efficient single aisle planes in LCC's fleet. The airline currently has 93 A319s, 72 A320s and 63 A321s. LCC's recent deliveries and pending orders within the A320 family have been for the A321. LCC's current orderbook includes an additional 58 A320 family aircraft remaining under its 2007 purchase agreement with Airbus, the bulk of which is for the A321 with firm orders of 36 with expected deliveries between 2012-2015. Notably, LCC is the world's largest operator of the model. -------------------- The flying range, seating capacity and enhancements of the A321 give it an important role in LCC's route map, making it an ideal plane for routes between hub-to-hub or large cities. As the airline's preferred single-aisle aircraft, Fitch believes it is highly unlikely that LCC would reject these planes in the case of a Chapter 11 filing. US Airways' interest in acquiring American Airlines (AMR) in bankruptcy has no impact on the ratings for this transaction. Fitch expects the A321-200s to remain part of the core narrowbody fleet, even if US Airways were to merge with American. The lack of fleet commonality (AMR is primarily 'Boeing', and LCC is primarily 'Airbus') is more than offset by the sheer size of each fleet type (especially for narrowbody aircraft) which is large enough to support an infrastructure of pilots, crew, mechanics, and maintenance. In addition, American's current orderbook includes firm orders for 460 single-aisle aircraft including 260 from Airbus and the remaining from Boeing. RATING RISK FACTORS FOR THE A321-200 Although the A321 has 65 operators, the fleet is moderately concentrated with about 51% of the A321s operated by 10 airlines but has broad geographic distribution among the key operators. Europe has the largest share with 40% followed by Asia with 36% share of the current fleet. Approximately 11% of the fleet is in North America, with US Airways being the largest operator (jetBlue and Spirit are the other two). Three of the top 10 operators are located in China, which is a dense and growing market where traffic trends are likely to remain strong for the foreseeable future. A potential concern for the A321 future market values comes from the introduction of the NEO (new engine option) version with CFM Leap-X engines or Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engines, with anticipated fuel savings of 15% over the CEO (current engine option) models. The advent of the A321neo could pressure future market values of the A321ceos longer-term. However, Fitch views it as a bigger threat to older generation aircraft rather than the aircraft in this portfolio given that they are some of the youngest vintage of this aircraft type. The first delivery of the NEO option for the A321 is not expected until 2016/2017, and it will take some time to produce a significant number of the new planes before it starts pressuring market values. The actual impact is hard to quantify at this point without knowing the traded price of the new engine. By the time the NEO gains significant market penetration, most of the debt outstanding on the senior tranche will be paid down through scheduled amortization (which also assumes an aggressive depreciation curve). Therefore, Fitch does not expect the impact of the NEO to have a material effect on the risk of this transaction. Another factor that could become a concern affecting valuations and depreciation rates is Airbus' high planned A320 family production rates. Airbus' A320 rates were at 34 per month in 2010, but the company has steadily raised rates to the current 40 per month rate. Rates will move to 42/month in 4Q'12, and the company is exploring pushing to 44/month. US AIRWAYS RATINGS also improved in the past two years. Fitch forecasts (assuming very conservative PRASM and jet fuel assumptions) modestly negative free cash flow (FCF) this year as a result of higher aircraft capital ---------------- Fitch expects LCC credit quality and ratings to remain stable through the course of the year. A downgrade is unlikely absent a drastic and sustained fuel or demand shock that would become a liquidity event, with accompanying tightness in credit markets. LCC's interest in acquiring American Airlines (AMR) out of bankruptcy has no impact on current ratings or Outlook. No formal merger announcement has been announced, but LCC's agreement on contract terms with major AMR unions is a critical step that will support LCC's efforts to potentially acquire AMR in bankruptcy. If there were a merger announcement, Fitch would review its ratings and outlook based on more details on synergies, labor negotiations, fleet plans and financing that are made public. Fitch views consolidation as a positive for the industry and a potential combination with AMR would likely strengthen LCC's network, and credit profile longer-term despite near-term challenges with integration. For additional information, please see the following recent Fitch press releases: --'Update: Fitch Rates US Airways' Proposed 2012-1 EETC Class A Certs 'A-' & Class B Certs 'BB-''(April 30, 2012); --' Fitch Rates US Airways' Proposed 2012-1 EETC Class A Certs 'A-' & Class B Certs 'BB-''(April 30, 2012); -- 'Fitch Upgrades US Airways' IDR to 'B-'; Outlook Stable' (April 20, 2012). _________________ JPRS |
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Beochien
Inscrit le 13/02/2007 |
# 1 mai 2012 10:44 | |
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Bonjour ! Un post de Ferpe, court, mais bien intéressant sur A.net ! Cette différentielle de conso "Attendue" d'ailleurs , de 11 %, est bien intéressante ! Déjà moins que les 15% annoncés par Boeing .. merci les "Vieux" T700 qq part ! Et celà implique aussi, qu'une remotorisation, type TXWB, plus une poignée d'améliorations "Aero" sur l'aile, dont des Sharklets (Ou autres Wingtips, des Spiroïds, pourquoi pas ?) Pourraient parfaitement amener les A330, à égalité de conso, pour un prix ultra raisonnable ! Soit moins de 1 milliard de $, pour, certainement vendre 2-300 avions de plus ! Et comme personnellement, je n'attend pas grand chose des A358,(A part le côté ULH) avant un bon moment ... Et que les marchés militaires, fret, etc ne demandent qu'à durer 10 ans de mieux ... La re-motorisation reste d'actualité, Airbus finira bien par s'en rendre compte , juste un peu aprés leurs clients ... Oops ! http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forum ... n/5446808/ ---------------- Rep : 176, quote "Ferpe" Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 173): The way I read the range chart for an A332 is that with a 253 seat load it's range is ~ 6600nm. That is quite a spread from the about 7100nm for an acknowledged overweight EIS 788. Well that seems to have changed, the Airbus document I referenced above now states 7250nm for the 238t variant with 253 Pax+Bags @95,0 kg each. Boeings 788 Web says 7650nm for 250 Pax+Bags @95,25 kg each. The 788 carries 223kg less which if transferred to fuel for the 332 would give it another 50nm. So we compare apples to apples 332 7300nm against the 788 7650nm. The 332 burns more fuel however, in the order of 11% more per nm flown. (Dernière édition le 1 mai 2012 10:46) _________________ JPRS |
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Beochien
Inscrit le 13/02/2007 |
# 3 mai 2012 18:30 | |
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Bonjour ! Actualite sur le Figaro et les Echos ! Que va devenir EADS, sous le mandat de Lagardère et Tomas Enders ... Bof ..... Flambi et Angela décideront ! EADS trop dépendant d'Airbus ... peut être, et pourquoi pas le contraire avec le crunch des crédits militaires ! Sinon, les fonds souverains Qatari, ou Chinois, où Russes ... ou Indiens décideront ! On va rigoler avec les syndicats ...; Vu que les grands capitalistes (Les riches) Français vont détaler (C'est commencé) sous peine de terminer "Plumés" définitivement dans les 5 ans ... Et aprés en avoir terminé avec les "Riches" ... que fait on ?? on va plumer les Alouettes ??? Par ce que pour "Nationaliser" de nouveau, ça peut s'avérer un peu difficile ..; €€€€€ ?? Je plaisante bien sûr ! A lire : Les Echos http://www.lesechos.fr/entreprises-sect ... 319339.php Le Figaro http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/2012/0 ... ardere.php _________________ JPRS |
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Beochien
Inscrit le 13/02/2007 |
# 3 mai 2012 20:06 | |
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J'ajoute , et trés perso ... Qu'il y en a un qui peut emporter mes points de permis et ses radars dans sa tombe électorale ! Pour qu'il soit bien dit , que si j'ai des opinions bien ancrées, côté économie ... elles ne correspondent pas obligatoirement à l' approbation d'une personne ... fut elle candidate au renouvellement de SA présidence ! Les réglements de comptes, c'est tout les 5 ans ... non ?? Le droit de pourrir la vie a ses limites, et elles ont été dépassées ! Ben, il ne faut pas les laisser passer l'occasion, sinon on en re-prend pour 5 ans ! Ouarf ! (Dernière édition le 3 mai 2012 20:59) _________________ JPRS |
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Beochien
Inscrit le 13/02/2007 |
# 19 mai 2012 01:02 | |
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Bonsoir ! Le B737 Max, au plancher ou sous le plancher $$$$ ! 64 % de remise, pour South West, qui dit mieux ! Une négotiation, fructueuse et une aimable (Et trés diplomatique) conclusion, tout le monde était content! La vérité est que South-West a crucifié Boeing sur les prix du B737-Max ! Avec JL/ Airbus qui a dû ne pas être tout à fait étranger à l'affaire ! Hum! Une com de Leeham qui reporte un reverse engineering "comptable" de la Wells Fargo ! juste en analysant un graphique ! Ryanair doit être content de lire tout ça, gare à la jaunisse ! Sans parler de Bombardier ! Et Airbus qui serait aussi parfois dans les - 60 %, et, pour l'instant, assez content des son pricing pour le A320 NEO ... hum ! Tout va bien donc, les Airliners doivent se frotter les mains ! Pour le reste, c'est un sacré nivellement des prix, les perfs et consos, vont compter double, vs des avions bradés à ce niveau, sans aucune marge de manoeuvre "Compensatoire" Les clients qui ont signé avec 40 % de remise des avions ancienne génération pour les reçevoir vers 2014-15 vont apprécier ! Et pour les valeurs résiduelles ... Holé! Si un avion neuf et économique coûte moins cher que ce que l'on pouvait espérer d'un avion ancien de 3-4 ans ...... Les Majeures qui usent leurs avions 15 ans vont bien rigoler, comme AF, BA et les gros transporteurs US aussi ... Les petits qui ne tombent pas en phase, certainement beaucoup moins ! Ce sera variable aussi côté lessors, c'est la vie, on ne peut arrêter le progrés, les situations de "rente" ne sont pas éternelles... non plus ! -------- Le lien pour Leeham, Scott Hamilton, et un large extrait --------- http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2012/05 ... m-for-max/ May 18, 2012 Le report de Wells Fargo ! (Voir le graphe de référence) In a new research note issued today, Wells Fargo estimates that Southwest Airlines paid a based price of $34.7m each for the Boeing 737-8 MAX. The investment bank published the following table, followed by the text: Prior to Southwest Airlines’ decision to defer 30 Boeing 737-800 deliveries from 2012-13 to 2017-18, it published the data above in its latest 10-Q. We estimate that (after factoring in PDPs) SWA is paying ~$5.67B for the 131 MAXs in 2019-2022, or $43.3M each; assuming an average of nine years of price escalation at 2.5%/year, the base price would be $34.7M – a 64% discount off the 737MAX-8 list price. We do not view this as an indication of a “price war” between Boeing and Airbus, as SWA is a priority 737 operator that was certain to receive the most favorable MAX launch-customer pricing. ET de Leeham ! This is a somewhat deeper discount than we thought: 60%. If true, we can say that discounts of 60% for top customers are not unknown, even if they are not common. We understand Boeing is currently offering the MAX at discounts in excess of 50% but we can’t nail it down any closer than this. Airbus likewise is known to offer discounts of up to 60% on the A320 family. So what about the “price war?” Our information is that this extends to the 737NG and the A320ceo. Airbus and Boeing have each connected sales of the current generation of airplanes to the re-engined models in part to sustain current and announced production rates and to prevent a drop in cash in the run-up to EIS of the new airplanes. This means dropping the price on the current generation to help. (Separately, this also means drops in lease rates and residual values.) Then there is the competition for only current generation aircraft, such as last year’s Delta Air Lines order for 100 -900ERs over the A321. He heard straight away that this came down to a price war and Boeing won. After the Airbus win at American Airlines, there was no way Boeing was going to lose Delta, and we heard at the time Boeing under-priced Airbus by about 10%. (Recall, too, that Boeing under-priced EADS by 10% in the tanker competition.) We are hearing United Airlines also came down to price. We expect this Boeing win to be announced before at at Farnborough. Bernstein Research, in a note also issued today about the EADS first quarter earnings call, had this to say about a price war: A320 pricing should be a near term strength, but long term risk. A320 pricing was described as “above expectations” with no declines seen in 2011 orders, and premiums captured for the A320neo. _________________ JPRS |
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lequebecois
Inscrit le 11/02/2007 |
# 19 mai 2012 01:10 | |
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Bonjour, Le jour où A et B devront ralentir les cadences (ça arrivera un jour) et augmenter les prix, les temps risquent d'être difficile... _________________ Le bonheur est une pause entre deux emmerdes ! Adepte de la discutaille du coin du comptoir du café de la gare |
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Beochien
Inscrit le 13/02/2007 |
# 20 mai 2012 23:26 | |
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Allez je le mets ici, cet Airinsight ! Une comparaison de Addison Schönland, sur les nouveaux BI, WB, particulièrement les 358 et les 788-9 ! Intéressant, c'est basé sur un graphe de Boeing ! Le A358 certainement un peu surestimé côté economie, il est plutôt jugé sur sa capacité pax ! On voit quand même nettement le trou laissé par le A332 vieillissant, ... vive le 332NEO .... ou un 358 à MTOW (Et un vrai poids réel) réduits ! Assumant que le marché se déplace vers de plus hautes capacité, la cible peut bouger un peu, en faveur d'Airbus ... mais le B777XX va l'attendre de l'autre côté ! Bon, le "Vrai" jeu des capacités pax, va continuer dans la polémique, et Boeing va continuer d'essayer de biaiser, les clients de ce côté savent bien ce qu'ils veulent! L'influence sera limitée ... sauf pour alimenter les blog's et les analystes de tout poil ! -----------De Airinsight, le lien et un extrait -------------- Different Assumptions Yield Different Airplanes Posted on May 18, 2012 by Addison Schonland Boeing and Airbus have different assumptions on the future of air travel, which impacts their product lines. Airbus assumes that growth in aircraft size will continue, and that with increasing congestion at airports, larger aircraft will be needed. Boeing views route dispersion and the use of smaller cities for point-to-point service, avoiding hubs, as a strong element of the future air travel system. Both are right, to some degree, but their focus is impacted market positioning. Boeing has analyzed the market potential of the 787-8 as 1,200 aircraft, a large market for twin-aisle aircraft (the 767 has sold somewhat more than 1,000 airplanes compared with multiples of that for the 737). In this process, it appears to be moving upward in its estimates of seat size, at least in its comparative economics numbers in recent years. Boeing charts used to have the 787-8 at 210 seats, but have grown their three class estimates to 241 for the same model, despite ANA having 157 seats and JAL 186 seats on their aircraft (largely because early models are grossly overweight, and they could be payload constrained). Why the sudden growth? The A350-800 is the reason, as it will be economically competitive with both the 787-8 and -9, and Boeing is increasing the number of seats on the 787-8 to put its “best foot forward” in comparative economic analyses. We are referring to the seat size on the chart going from 210 to 241 below. Boeing needs to show better 787-8 economics with respect to the A350-800, and the easiest way is to change assumptions on seating to show better comparative economics. Seating of 210 for 3 class appears to be the right number, given how current operators have configured the airplane. Airbus largely ignored the under 250 seat market segment when designing the A350XWB. The A350-800 competes with the 787-9, leaving the smaller 787-8 to itself. Airbus claims the market is up-sizing and the extra capacity of the larger airplane is needed. Boeing believes the smaller airplane is needed for long-thin routes to replace 757 and 767 models. The chart below, from a presentation by Brad Till, Boeing’s Managing Director Aircraft Programs and Valuations, shows the 787-8 and the A350-800 to be larger-capacity airplanes than current offerings. The salient question is whether this is indicative of the need for an airplane that is smaller than the A350-800, or whether the market has moved upwards. We know that up-sizing is occurring in the narrow-body market as the proportion of orders for larger models in both the 737 and A320 families is increasing, and activities in the smaller models is moribund. Is the same happening in the wide body market? Voir l'image _________________ JPRS |
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Beochien
Inscrit le 13/02/2007 |
# 21 mai 2012 00:55 | |
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Bonsoir ! Un Airinsight du 16, que je n'avais pas ouvert sur le B737 MAX, de Addison Schönland ! Pas de définition figée avant Fin 2012, et qui sait peut être début 2013 ... Bien, donc pas grand chose pour Farnborough ...A part le show habituel du Marketing Boeing ... Et les prospects des clients "Normaux" de Boeing qui se grattent la tête avant de signer ! Une chose devient certaine ... plus question d'avancer l'EIS du B737 MAX avant 2017 à ce stade! Ajouter aussi (Vu ailleurs) un effort un peu désespéré pour gratter un petit pouce, sur le diamètre du Fan du LeapX vers les 70"... et toujours sans toucher au MLG ??? CFMI a vraiment du pain sur la planche ... 2% en dessous et ils se feront crucifier ! Noté aussi, au passage que les prétentions du B737 MAX redeviennent plus "Raisonnables" côté rayon d'action ... On voit nettement la difficulté de Boeing, pour atteindre ses promesses ... si c'était simple, le B737MAX aurait été défini pour Farnborough ... Les clients possédant les centaines, de "commitments" annoncés traînent les pieds pour signer ... ils auront leurs raisons, et le "cinéma" mktg de Boeing, montre les limites de sa crédibilité ! Et les remises de 60% ++, quasi publiques maintenant ne doivent pas aider le Commercial de Boeing (Celui d'Airbus non plus d'ailleurs !)... des avions à 35 millions de $ ... et moi alors ... Le "Me too" doit fuser de toutes parts ! Holé! Noté aussi que P&W se situe définitivement "Out" du projet B737MAX , trop tard ... Et Airbus est dans le brouillard pour les éventuelles décisions concernant l'A320 NEO (Une nouvelle couche ou pas, vers 2018 ) Le commentaire intéressant de Keesje qui ne poste plus sur A.net ! Danser sur la glace ... hum ! keesje on May 18, 2012 at 8:59 am said: Nice summary about the ongoing MAX development. IMO Farnborough is crusial for the project. The false start with the mercy order from AA, the alarming prices Southwest apparently negotiated, the amazing large Im-Ex financed Lionair and Norwegian orders. Time for some regular, non political orders from mainstream airlines with average disounts. Adding up all improvements sofar I have the feeling the 737 MAX is approaching a 10% improvement over the 737 NG. Southwest is deffering NG “4 yrs” after 2013. A first sign of airlines starting to avoid receiving the last current generation NB, with quick economic write-offs. Airbus and Boeing are trying to downplay this while promoting their new ones. Dancing on ice.. ------------ Airinsight , le lien et un extrait --------------- http://airinsight.com/2012/05/16/defini ... Insight%29 With the recent announcement by Boeing that the aerodynamic changes are done on the Boeing 737 MAX, any further gains in fuel efficiency must come from the engine and architecture improvements still to come. Boeing hopes to have the architecture changes—whatever they are—completed by the third or fourth quarter of this year. We presume at least some of these will be geared toward weight reduction (as was the fly-by-wire spoiler change) to offset at least in part the weight gained from heavier, new technology engines, and improvements to the flight system. Officials claim the new “Boeing Advanced Technology Winglets” (BATW) add up to 1.5% in reduced fuel consumption depending on the length of the flight on top of the advertised 10%-12%. Window has passed for GTF option Prior to the addition of the BATW, Boeing was still short of meeting the goal; market sources claim CFM is still working to meet the targeted savings on the engine design of the LEAP 1B, a task observers say will occur by the time the 737 MAX enters service in 4Q 2017, more than five years from now. The uncertainty over CFM’s current ability to meet Boeing’s desires means Boeing has evaluated adding the Pratt & Whitney GTF as an engine choice. The chances today of GTF powering the MAX appear slim. On the 1Q 2012 earnings call, Boeing CEO Jim McNerney said that “right now,” the company is focused on proceeding with CFM and at the PW Media Day call, PW CEO David Hess said that he doesn’t see an opportunity to put the GTF on MAX. We believe that as Boeing closes in on the goals, the need to offer the GTF declines. We believe the opportunity has passed. Still waiting for order conversions Although Boeing is narrowing the definition of the MAX—final design won’t be done until next year—there remains enough ambiguity that at least some of the customers who have signed “commitments” for the MAX aren’t ready to convert these to firm orders. “They still don’t know what the airplane is,” one customer says. -------- _________________ JPRS |
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Beochien
Inscrit le 13/02/2007 |
# 22 mai 2012 19:57 | |
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Beuh ... Bonsoir quand même ! Il n'y a que des cies US pour oser faire ça ... Delta va reprendre le paquet des B717 de Southwest / Airtran ! Négociations avec les pilotes, Training, Formation de Techniciens, stock de spare parts, à la vista ! Holé! Pour remplacer qq régionaux trop petits et des DC9 encore plus vieux ! Dans les 88 avions, quand même ! Ca me dépasse , venant d'une Major" US ! Bon, c'est l'Américan Way of Flying ! J'ai cru, avant, que ces avions allaient aller en Europe de l'est ??? Bon, ce sont des locations de Boeing, qui sont transférées de fait ... et les "leasing" ça doit se rapprocher du $ symbolique ! Juste pour payer les pièces détachées ...des avions qui ont 20 ans en moyenne ... Et Boeing fait chauffer la marmite des 737 MAX pour l'étape suivante chez Delta .... et de toute façon, 88 avions à remplacer, chez SW, même à 35 millions de $ l'unité ... ça fait du chiffre pour Boeing, chez SW $$$$ ! Bombardier et ses C-Séries, Embraer, Sukhoï, ou Mitsubishi, sont à la rue pour au moins 5 ans chez Delta ! Juste mon idée ! JL devrait suivre le PB de prés, un bien ... ou un mal, je ne sais pas trop, le coup du balancier peut être ! ------ De Joshua Freed, du Seattle Times, l'article et le lien -------------- http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/b ... fleet.html Delta to take Southwest's Boeing 717s Delta Air Lines is adding a new plane to its fleet. It's taking the Boeing 717s that Southwest Airlines got when it bought AirTran. By JOSHUA FREED Delta Air Lines is adding a new plane to its fleet. It's taking the Boeing 717s that Southwest Airlines got when it bought AirTran. Delta said it will start leasing the 717s next year as long as its pilots approve a new labor contract. Until it bought AirTran, Southwest only flew Boeing 737s. Southwest Airlines Co. has said it was looking for someone else to take AirTran's 717s. Delta says the 88 planes will replace 50-seat regional jets and the old DC-9s that Delta got when it bought Northwest. Because the 717s will be replacing old planes, Delta says the overall amount of flying it does will stay the same. (Dernière édition le 22 mai 2012 20:03) _________________ JPRS |
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