Dépêches

NMI at 52.9%; October Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 53.8%; New Orders Index at 52.4%; Employment Index at 53.3%

Dépèche transmise le 3 novembre 2011 par Business Wire

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October for the 23rd consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®.

“[New orders increased] due to higher occupancy.”

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The NMI registered 52.9 percent in October, 0.1 percentage point lower than the 53 percent registered in September, and indicating continued growth at a slightly slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 3.3 percentage points to 53.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 27th consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 52.4 percent. The Employment Index increased 4.6 percentage points to 53.3 percent, indicating growth in employment after one month of contraction. The Prices Index decreased 4.8 percentage points to 57.1 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in October when compared to September. According to the NMI, eight non-manufacturing industries reported growth in October. Even though there is month-over-month growth in the Employment Index, respondents are still expressing concern over available labor resources and job growth. The continued strong push for inventory reduction by supply management professionals has resulted in contraction in the Inventories Index for the first time in eight months. Respondents’ comments are mixed and reflect concern about future business conditions.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)

The eight non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in October based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Retail Trade; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The eight industries reporting contraction in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Construction; and Wholesale Trade.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

• “Business is fairly flat, with a slight increase noted for the month.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
• “Sales are increasing slightly, but are still lower than they have been historically.” (Public Administration)
• “Some slowdown in the last month.” (Finance & Insurance)
• “Business is steady, with a lot of price competition at the selling end of our business.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
• “The poor economy is creating a drag on expected revenue through the end of this year.” (Information)
• “Overall, we are still growing, but we are beginning to see some cautiousness reflected in our customers.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS(a) OCTOBER 2011
Index			Non-Manufacturing												Manufacturing
		Series Index Oct		Series Index Sep		Percent Point Change		Direction		Rate of Change		Trend(b) (Months)		Series Index Oct		Series Index Sep		Percent Point Change
NMI/PMI			52.9		53.0		-0.1		Growing		Slower		23		50.8		51.6		-0.8
Business Activity/ Production			53.8		57.1		-3.3		Growing		Slower		27		50.1		51.2		-1.1
New Orders			52.4		56.5		-4.1		Growing		Slower		27		52.4		49.6		+2.8
Employment			53.3		48.7		+4.6		Growing		From Contracting		1		53.5		53.8		-0.3
Supplier Deliveries			52.0		49.5		+2.5		Slowing		From Faster		1		51.3		51.4		-0.1
Inventories			45.5		51.5		-6.0		Contracting		From Growing		1		46.7		52.0		-5.3
Prices			57.1		61.9		-4.8		Increasing		Slower		27		41.0		56.0		-15.0
Backlog of Orders			47.0		52.5		-5.5		Contracting		From Growing		1		47.5		41.5		+6.0
New Export Orders			54.0		52.0		+2.0		Growing		Faster		3		50.0		53.5		-3.5
Imports			48.0		47.5		+0.5		Contracting		Slower		2		49.5		54.5		-5.0
Inventory Sentiment			57.5		59.0		-1.5		Too High		Slower		173		N/A		N/A		N/A
Customers’ Inventories			N/A		N/A		N/A		N/A		N/A		N/A		43.5		49.0		-5.5

(a) Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

(b) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Airfares; Fluorescent Lamps; Food and Beverage (3); Freight Charges; Lighting Supplies; Oil Products; Paper Products (2); Plywood; PVC Products; Software Maintenance; and Steel Products (2).

Commodities Down in Price

Carbon Pipe; Copper; Copper Pipe; Fuel; and Gasoline (5).

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities are reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

OCTOBER 2011 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI

In October, the NMI registered 52.9 percent, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 23rd consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

NMI HISTORY

					Month											NMI															Month											NMI
					Oct 2011											52.9															Apr 2011											52.8
					Sep 2011											53.0															Mar 2011											57.3
					Aug 2011											53.3															Feb 2011											59.7
					Jul 2011											52.7															Jan 2011											59.4
					Jun 2011											53.3															Dec 2010											57.1
					May 2011											54.6															Nov 2010											56.0
					Average for 12 months – 55.2 High – 59.7 Low – 52.7

Business Activity

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in October registered 53.8 percent, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points when compared to the 57.1 percent registered in September. Nine industries reported increased business activity, and five industries reported decreased activity for the month of October. Comments from respondents include: “Aggressive calling on customers” and “More projects started.”

The industries reporting growth of business activity in October — listed in order — are: Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The industries reporting decreased business activity in October are: Educational Services; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Construction; and Utilities.

Business Activity						%Higher					%Same					%Lower					Index
Oct 2011						24					57					19					53.8
Sep 2011						27					59					14					57.1
Aug 2011						27					54					19					55.6
Jul 2011						30					50					20					56.1

New Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in October for the 27th consecutive month. The index registered 52.4 percent, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points from the 56.5 percent reported in September. Comments from respondents include: “Increased client activity” and “[New orders increased] due to higher occupancy.”

The 10 industries reporting growth of new orders in October — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Retail Trade; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries reporting contraction of new orders in October are: Educational Services; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; and Accommodation & Food Services.

New Orders						%Higher					%Same					%Lower					Index
Oct 2011						23					57					20					52.4
Sep 2011						25					60					15					56.5
Aug 2011						27					50					23					52.8
Jul 2011						24					55					21					51.7

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October after one month of contraction, as ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 53.3 percent. This reflects an increase of 4.6 percentage points when compared to the 48.7 percent registered in September. Eight industries reported increased employment, seven industries reported decreased employment, and three industries reported unchanged employment compared to September. Comments from respondents include: “New positions being created and filled due to increase in business activity and expansion” and “Slowly adding back support staff — still 25 percent below high-water mark of June 2008.”

The industries reporting an increase in employment in October — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Educational Services; Other Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Employment						%Higher					%Same					%Lower					Index
Oct 2011						16					64					20					53.3
Sep 2011						10					73					17					48.7
Aug 2011						16					69					15					51.6
Jul 2011						27					58					15					52.5

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52 percent in October, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 49.5 percent registered in September, indicating that supplier deliveries were slower in October. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The six industries reporting slower deliveries in October — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Other Services; Public Administration; Information; and Wholesale Trade. The two industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in October are: Utilities; and Finance & Insurance. Ten industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in October compared to September.

Supplier Deliveries						%Slower					%Same					%Faster					Index
Oct 2011						7					90					3					52.0
Sep 2011						6					87					7					49.5
Aug 2011						10					86					4					53.0
Jul 2011						7					87					6					50.5

Inventories

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index contracted in October, registering 45.5 percent. The index is 6 percentage points lower than the 51.5 percent reading that was reported in September. Of the total respondents in October, 27 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Working down inventory level” and “Adjusting to business level.”

The five industries reporting an increase in inventories in October are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The nine industries reporting decreases in inventories in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; and Wholesale Trade.

Inventories						%Higher					%Same					%Lower					Index
Oct 2011						14					63					23					45.5
Sep 2011						19					65					16					51.5
Aug 2011						21					65					14					53.5
Jul 2011						24					65					11					56.5

Prices

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased at a slower rate in October. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for October registered 57.1 percent, 4.8 percentage points lower than the 61.9 percent reported in September. In October, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 21 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 68 percent, and 11 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.

Nine non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid, in the following order: Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Mining; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Other Services. The six industries reporting a decrease in prices paid — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Construction; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Finance & Insurance.

Prices						%Higher					%Same					%Lower					Index
Oct 2011						21					68					11					57.1
Sep 2011						24					69					7					61.9
Aug 2011						28					64					8					64.2
Jul 2011						30					61					9					56.6

Backlog of Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index contracted in October for the fourth time in five months. The index registered 47 percent, 5.5 percentage points lower than the 52.5 percent reported in September. Of the total respondents in October, 38 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The three industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in October are: Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The seven industries reporting lower backlog of orders in October — listed in order — are: Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Public Administration; and Wholesale Trade. Eight industries reported no change in order backlogs for the month of October compared to September.

Backlog of Orders						%Higher					%Same					%Lower					Index
Oct 2011						10					74					16					47.0
Sep 2011						13					79					8					52.5
Aug 2011						14					67					19					47.5
Jul 2011						6					76					18					44.0

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the United States by domestically based personnel grew in October for the third consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index for October registered 54 percent, which is 2 percentage points higher than the 52 percent reported in September. Of the total respondents in October, 65 percent indicated they either do not perform,