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U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI and Diffusion Indexes

Dépèche transmise le 27 janvier 2011 par Business Wire

U.S. Department of Commerce Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI and Diffusion Indexes

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The U.S. Department of Commerce recently completed its annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business^® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business^®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note these changes are effective with the January 2011 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business^®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2011, and the January 2011 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business^®, which will be released on February 3, 2011.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes a year ahead (2011).

The X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indexes for 2007 through 2010, as well as the 2011 projected seasonal factors. The 2011 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2012. Projected seasonal factors for 2011 and revised seasonally adjusted indexes are shown below.

To compute the PMI:

1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment, and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3) Add all five index numbers together and divide by five.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

To compute the NMI:

1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for Business Activity, New Orders, and Employment to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3) Add all four index numbers together and divide by four.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

The revised breakeven point for the overall economy is a PMI of 42.5 percent. A PMI over 42.5 percent indicates an expanding overall economy. A PMI below 42.5 percent indicates the overall economy is declining.

Revised Non-Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2007-2010
				NMI		Business Activity		New Orders		Employment		Prices
Jan	2007					57.9		56.0		54.2		57.4
Feb	2007					55.8		56.5		51.9		56.5
Mar	2007					52.8		53.9		51.4		63.0
Apr	2007					56.8		55.7		51.1		63.2
May	2007					58.1		57.0		51.8		63.3
Jun	2007					58.4		55.0		53.6		61.9
Jul	2007					57.4		55.2		51.6		59.7
Aug	2007					55.4		55.5		48.6		61.4
Sep	2007					53.9		53.4		52.4		67.4
Oct	2007					55.2		54.8		53.2		65.9
Nov	2007					56.0		51.9		52.6		73.6
Dec	2007					54.3		51.9		52.8		72.7
Jan	2008			45.3		42.0		44.9		45.3		71.0
Feb	2008			50.2		53.5		50.4		46.9		73.0
Mar	2008			49.6		51.4		50.8		47.3		71.9
Apr	2008			51.3		51.8		49.6		47.6		72.4
May	2008			50.7		52.1		52.2		47.3		75.4
Jun	2008			49.1		50.8		50.0		45.2		79.7
Jul	2008			49.8		50.5		49.3		45.8		76.8
Aug	2008			50.1		50.4		49.2		45.3		73.4
Sep	2008			49.8		50.5		50.7		44.5		73.6
Oct	2008			44.5		43.6		43.2		43.0		52.9
Nov	2008			37.6		34.5		35.0		31.5		36.6
Dec	2008			40.0		38.9		38.3		34.9		37.0
Jan	2009			43.3		44.2		40.9		36.4		41.5
Feb	2009			42.0		41.5		41.4		37.0		48.7
Mar	2009			41.2		44.4		40.1		32.3		39.7
Apr	2009			43.2		44.7		46.8		35.8		40.2
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