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NMI at 52.7%; July Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 56.1%; New Orders Index at 51.7%; Employment Index at 52.5%

Dépèche transmise le 3 août 2011 par Business Wire

NMI at 52.7%; July Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 56.1%; New Orders Index at 51.7%; Employment Index at 52.5%

NMI at 52.7%; July Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 56.1%; New Orders Index at 51.7%; Employment Index at 52.5%

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in July for the 20th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

“Continue to fill in gaps and increase in line with run rates.”

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The NMI registered 52.7 percent in July, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 53.3 percent registered in June, and indicating continued growth at a slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 2.7 percentage points to 56.1 percent, reflecting growth for the 24th consecutive month and at a faster rate than in June. The New Orders Index decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 51.7 percent. The Employment Index decreased 1.6 percentage points to 52.5 percent, indicating growth in employment for the 11th consecutive month, but at a slower rate than in June. The Prices Index decreased 4.3 percentage points to 56.6 percent, indicating that prices increased at a slower rate in July when compared to June. According to the NMI, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in July. Respondents’ comments remain mixed; however, for the most part they indicate that business conditions are flattening out.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)

The 13 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in July based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Educational Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; and Wholesale Trade. The five industries reporting contraction in July are: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; and Construction.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “Sales and customer traffic recovered slightly, pulling even with last year after trending lower for several months. Discretionary spending per customer has continued to decline in all areas of the operation.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
  • “Sales volumes are steady. Input costs are increasing.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
  • “Business outlook remains steady, but concerns about the second half of the year remain.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Municipal government has not bounced back at a similar pace to the private sector.” (Public Administration)
  • “New home construction is still very slow. Repair and remodel is the only bright spot.” (Wholesale Trade)
  • “Commodities cooling off and dropping a bit.” (Retail Trade)

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS(a)
JULY 2011

       
Index Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing

Series
Index
Jul

 

Series
Index
Jun

 

Percent
Point
Change

 

Direction

 

Rate of
Change

 

Trend(b)
(Months)

Series
Index
Jul

 

Series
Index
Jun

 

Percent
Point
Change

 
NMI/PMI 52.7 53.3 -0.6 Growing Slower 20 50.9 55.3 -4.4
Business Activity/

Production

56.1 53.4 +2.7 Growing Faster 24 52.3 54.5 -2.2
New Orders 51.7 53.6 -1.9 Growing Slower 24 49.2 51.6 -2.4
Employment 52.5 54.1 -1.6 Growing Slower 11 53.5 59.9 -6.4
Supplier Deliveries 50.5 52.0 -1.5 Slowing Slower 16 50.4 56.3 -5.9
Inventories 56.5 53.5 +3.0 Growing Faster 6 49.3 54.1 -4.8
Prices 56.6 60.9 -4.3 Increasing Slower 24 59.0 68.0 -9.0
Backlog of Orders 44.0 48.5 -4.5 Contracting Faster 2 45.0 49.0 -4.0
New Export Orders 49.0 57.0 -8.0 Contracting From Growing 1 54.0 53.5 +0.5
Imports 47.5 46.5 +1.0 Contracting Slower 2 53.5 51.0 +2.5
Inventory Sentiment 59.5 58.5 +1.0 Too High Faster 170 N/A N/A N/A
Customers’ Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 44.0 47.0 -3.0

(a) Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

(b) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Airfares (8); Asphalt Products; Beef; Can Liners (4); Cardboard; Cheese (2); Construction Labor; Copy Paper (2); Cotton Products (11); Dairy; #2 Diesel Fuel (13); Fuel (19); Gasoline(c) (10); Janitorial Maintenance Supplies; Lumber; Maintenance Contracts; Office and Computer Supplies; Packaging; Paper (9); Paper Products; Petroleum Products (7); Plastic Bags; Plastic Products (5); and Roofing Shingles.

Commodities Down in Price

Chicken; Computers and Computer Supplies; Diesel Fuel; Gasoline(c) (2); and Natural Gas.

Commodities in Short Supply

Trucks is the only commodity reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

(c) Reported as both up and down in price.

JULY 2011 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI

In July, the NMI registered 52.7 percent, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 20th consecutive month. This month’s index is the lowest reading since January 2010, when the index registered 50.7 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

NMI HISTORY

          Month                     NMI                               Month                     NMI
 
Jul 2011 52.7 Jan 2011 59.4
Jun 2011 53.3 Dec 2010 57.1
May 2011 54.6 Nov 2010 56.0
Apr 2011 52.8 Oct 2010 54.6
Mar 2011 57.3 Sep 2010 53.9
Feb 2011 59.7 Aug 2010 52.8

Average for 12 months – 55.4
High – 59.7
Low – 52.7

Business Activity

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in July registered 56.1 percent, an increase of 2.7 percentage points when compared to the 53.4 percent registered in June. Twelve industries reported increased business activity, and five industries reported decreased activity for the month of July. Comments from respondents include: “Slightly higher due to increased marketing efforts” and “Increased sales — existing businesses.”

The industries reporting growth of business activity in July — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Wholesale Trade. The five industries reporting decreased business activity in July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Construction.

Business Activity           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Jul 2011 30 50 20 56.1
Jun 2011 33 50 17 53.4
May 2011 29 57 14 53.6
Apr 2011 34 54 12 53.7

New Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in July for the 24th consecutive month. The index registered 51.7 percent, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the 53.6 percent reported in June. Comments from respondents include: “Lower demand or budget constraints” and “Uncertainty of funding.”

The 10 industries reporting growth of new orders in July — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; and Finance & Insurance. The four industries reporting contraction of new orders in July are: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

New Orders           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Jul 2011 24 55 21 51.7
Jun 2011 28 56 16 53.6
May 2011 32 54 14 56.8
Apr 2011 34 52 14 52.7

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in July, as ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 52.5 percent. This reflects a decrease of 1.6 percentage points when compared to the 54.1 percent registered in June. Nine industries reported increased employment, one industry reported decreased employment, and eight industries reported unchanged employment compared to June. Comments from respondents include “Filling some vacancies on a case-by-case basis” and “Slightly lower due to end of assignments/jobs.”

The industries reporting an increase in employment in July — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; and Accommodation & Food Services. The only industry reporting a reduction in employment in July is Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Employment           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Jul 2011 27 58 15 52.5
Jun 2011 27 61 12 54.1
May 2011 28 63 9 54.0
Apr 2011 26 63 11 51.9

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50.5 percent in July, 1.5 percentage points lower than the 52 percent registered in June, indicating that supplier deliveries continued to slow in July. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The nine industries reporting slower deliveries in July — listed in order — are: Utilities; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Construction; and Retail Trade. The four industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in July are: Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Finance & Insurance.

Supplier Deliveries           %Slower         %Same         %Faster         Index
 
Jul 2011 7 87 6 50.5
Jun 2011 9 86 5 52.0
May 2011 14 80 6 54.0
Apr 2011 10 86 4 53.0

Inventories

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index registered 56.5 percent in July, 3 percentage points higher than the 53.5 percent reading that was reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 31 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Improved inventory management oversight” and “Continue to fill in gaps and increase in line with run rates.”

The seven industries reporting an increase in inventories in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Wholesale Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; and Public Administration. The five industries reporting decreases in inventories in July are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Retail Trade.

Inventories           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Jul 2011 24 65 11 56.5
Jun 2011 23 61 16 53.5
May 2011 26 58 16 55.0
Apr 2011 20 71 9 55.5

Prices

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased in July. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for July registered 56.6 percent, 4.3 percentage points lower than the 60.9 percent reported in June. In July, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 30 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 61 percent, and 9 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.

Sixteen non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid, in the following order: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Information. The two industries reporting a decrease in prices paid are: Construction and Public Administration.

Prices           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Jul 2011 30 61 9 56.6
Jun 2011 35 58 7 60.9
May 2011 53 42 5 69.6
Apr 2011 57 41 2 70.1

Backlog of Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index contracted in July for the second consecutive month. The index registered 44 percent, 4.5 percentage points lower than the 48.5 percent reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 45 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The two industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in July are: Accommodation & Food Services; and Mining. The seven industries reporting lower backlog of orders in July — listed in order — are: Utilities; Public Administration; Other Services; Information; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. Eight industries reported no change in order backlogs for the month of July compared to June.

Backlog of Orders           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Index
 
Jul 2011 6 76 18 44.0
Jun 2011 12 73 15 48.5
May 2011 18 74 8 55.0
Apr 2011 20 71

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