Dépêches

NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 46.4%; July Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 46.1%; New Orders Index at 48.1%; Employment Index at 41.5%

Dépèche transmise le 5 août 2009 par Business Wire

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in July, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Hotels Corporation. “The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 46.4 percent in July, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 47 percent registered in June, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the 10th consecutive month, at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 3.7 percentage points to 46.1 percent. The New Orders Index decreased 0.5 percentage point to 48.1 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 1.9 percentage points to 41.5 percent. The Prices Index decreased 12.4 percentage points to 41.3 percent in July, indicating a significant decrease in prices paid from June. According to the NMI, seven non-manufacturing industries reported growth in July. The majority of respondents’ comments reflect a sense of uncertainty and cautiousness about business conditions.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)

The seven industries reporting growth in July based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Retail Trade. The 10 industries reporting contraction in July — listed in order — are: Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Educational Services; and Accommodation & Food Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

“Economic activity continues to decline.” (Transportation & Warehousing)
“Continued soft sales, offset by improving profit margins.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
“Stimulus funds have increased business activity.” (Public Administration)
“Business downturn seems to be stabilizing somewhat.” (Information)
“There is still downward pressure on our products; however, our sales volume is stabilizing.” (Mining)
“The past month’s volume target and operating volumes were met. Rising concerns over the future form of healthcare reform and impact on provider organizations.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
“Although attendance is up, business levels remain steady. More people, fewer dollars spent — an indication that discretionary spending is limited.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS(a) JULY 2009

Index		Non-Manufacturing												Manufacturing
	Series Index July		Series Index June		Percent Point Change		Direction		Rate of Change		Trend(b) (Months)		Series Index July		Series Index June		Percent Point Change

NMI/PMI		46.4		47.0		-0.6		Contracting		Faster		10		48.9		44.8		+4.1
Business Activity/ Production		46.1		49.8		-3.7		Contracting		Faster		10		57.9		52.5		+5.4
New Orders		48.1		48.6		-0.5		Contracting		Faster		10		55.3		49.2		+6.1
Employment		41.5		43.4		-1.9		Contracting		Faster		15		45.6		40.7		+4.9
Supplier Deliveries		50.0		46.0		+4.0		Unchanged		From Contracting		1		52.0		50.6		+1.4
Inventories		47.0		45.0		+2.0		Contracting		Slower		11		33.5		30.8		+2.7
Prices		41.3		53.7		-12.4		Decreasing		From Increasing		1		55.0		50.0		+5.0
Backlog of Orders		42.0		46.0		-4.0		Contracting		Faster		12		50.0		47.5		+2.5
New Export Orders		47.5		54.5		-7.0		Contracting		From Growing		1		50.5		49.5		+1.0
Imports		45.0		47.0		-2.0		Contracting		Faster		9		50.0		46.0		+4.0
Inventory Sentiment		62.5		67.0		-4.5		Too High		Slower		146		N/A		N/A		N/A
Customers’ Inventories		N/A		N/A		N/A		N/A		N/A		N/A		42.5		43.5		-1.0

(a) Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

(b) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Diesel Fuel(c) (2); Plastic/Poly Bags; and Tomatoes (2).

Commodities Down in Price

Beef (2); Corrugated Boxes; Diesel Fuel(c); #2 Diesel Fuel; Fuel; Fuel Surcharges; Gasoline; Medical Supplies; Natural Gas (3); Office Supplies; Paper; Pork Products; and Steel Products.

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities were reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

JULY 2009 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index)

In July, the NMI registered 46.4 percent, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate compared to June’s reading of 47 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

NMI HISTORY

Month	NMI	Month	NMI

Jul 2009	46.4	Jan 2009	42.9
Jun 2009	47.0	Dec 2008	40.1
May 2009	44.0	Nov 2008	37.4
Apr 2009	43.7	Oct 2008	44.6
Mar 2009	40.8	Sep 2008	50.0
Feb 2009	41.6	Aug 2008	50.4
Average for 12 months – 44.1 High – 50.4 Low – 37.4

Business Activity

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in July registered 46.1 percent, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points when compared to the 49.8 percent registered in June. Six industries reported increased business activity, and eight industries reported decreased activity for the month of July. Four industries reported no change from June. Comments from respondents include: “Reductions in revenue and staff” and “Lower customer demand.”

The industries reporting growth of business activity in July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Educational Services; and Retail Trade. The industries reporting decreased business activity in July — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Construction; and Transportation & Warehousing.

Business Activity	%Higher	%Same	%Lower	Index

Jul 2009	19	53	28	46.1
Jun 2009	28	50	22	49.8
May 2009	20	52	28	42.4
Apr 2009	26	46	28	45.2

New Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index contracted in July for the 10th consecutive month. The index registered 48.1 percent, which is a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the 48.6 percent registered in June. Comments from respondents include: “Lower bid opportunities” and “Orders are being placed on hold pending economic recovery.”

The seven industries reporting growth of new orders in July — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Information; Educational Services; Retail Trade; and Accommodation & Food Services. The seven industries reporting contraction of new orders in July — listed in order — are: Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; and Wholesale Trade.

New Orders	%Higher	%Same	%Lower	Index

Jul 2009	22	52	26	48.1
Jun 2009	29	45	26	48.6
May 2009	23	51	26	44.4
Apr 2009	24	54	22	47.0

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in July for the 18th time in the last 19 months. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for July registered 41.5 percent. This reflects a decrease of 1.9 percentage points when compared to the 43.4 percent registered in June. Six industries reported increased employment, 11 industries reported decreased employment, and one industry reported unchanged employment compared to June. Comments from respondents include: “Continued attrition and layoffs due to economic conditions” and “Hiring freeze in place, and we are unable to fill open positions.”

The industries reporting an increase in employment in July — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in July — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; and Public Administration.

Employment	%Higher	%Same	%Lower	Index

Jul 2009	13	61	26	41.5
Jun 2009	13	64	23	43.4
May 2009	13	58	29	39.0
Apr 2009	10	58	32	37.0

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50 percent in July, indicating supplier deliveries were unchanged in July when compared to June. A reading at 50 percent indicates an equal balance of non-manufacturing respondents reporting slower and faster deliveries from their suppliers. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The six industries reporting slower deliveries in July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; and Wholesale Trade. The six industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Utilities; Educational Services; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Transportation & Warehousing.

Supplier Deliveries	%Slower	%Same	%Faster	Index

Jul 2009	8	84	8	50.0
Jun 2009	3	86	11	46.0
May 2009	7	86	7	50.0
Apr 2009	3	85	12	45.5

Inventories

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index registered 47 percent in July, indicating that inventory levels contracted in July for the 11th consecutive month. Of the total respondents in July, 28 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from members include: “Continue to make efforts to reduce inventory” and “No longer replenishing inventories.”

The seven industries reporting an increase in inventories in July — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Utilities; Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; and Retail Trade. The six industries reporting decreases in inventories in July — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; and Public Administration.

Inventories		%Higher	%Same	%Lower	Index

Jul 2009		18	58	24	47.0
Jun 2009		14	62	24	45.0
May 2009		17	60	23	47.0
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