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Economic Growth to Continue Throughout 2011
Dépèche transmise le 17 mai 2011 par Business Wire
Economic Growth to Continue Throughout 2011
TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic growth is expected to continue in the United States throughout the remainder of 2011, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in their spring 2011 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for the remainder of 2011 have improved in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.
“Much of manufacturing has emerged from the economic downturn and is experiencing significant growth. Capacity utilization is back to typical levels and manufacturers are significantly investing in their businesses. The positive forecast for revenue growth and improved employment will drive the continuation of the recovery in the sector”
These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Business Survey Committee of the Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM). The forecast was presented today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and by Anthony S. Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
Manufacturing Summary
Sixty-eight percent of respondents predict revenues will be 13.2 percent greater, 12 percent expect a 13.2 percent decline, and 20 percent foresee no change. This yields significant expectations for growth in 2011, as manufacturers’ net revenues are expected to increase 7.5 percent. This represents an improvement in expectations from December 2010 when the panel of supply management executives predicted a 5.6 percent increase in 2011 revenues compared to 2010. With operating capacity improving to 83.2 percent, an expected capital expenditure increase of 17.9 percent, and prices paid expected to increase 7.4 percent for the full year of 2011, manufacturers will be challenged to grow revenues and contain costs through the remainder of the year. “Much of manufacturing has emerged from the economic downturn and is experiencing significant growth. Capacity utilization is back to typical levels and manufacturers are significantly investing in their businesses. The positive forecast for revenue growth and improved employment will drive the continuation of the recovery in the sector,” said Ore.
The 17 industries reporting expectations of growth in revenue during the year — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; and Paper Products.
Non-Manufacturing Summary
Fifty percent of non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives expect their 2011 revenues to be greater by 9.3 percent than in 2010. Overall, respondents currently expect a 2.1 percent net increase in overall revenues, which is lower than the 3.4 percent increase that was forecast in December 2010. “Indications are that non-manufacturing will continue on the path of slow and sustainable growth for the balance of 2011. Price increases and slow employment growth are prominent areas of concern in the non-manufacturing sector,” Nieves said.
The 13 non-manufacturing industries expecting increases in revenue in 2011 — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Construction.
OPERATING RATE
Manufacturing
Purchasing and supply managers report that their companies are currently operating at 83.2 percent of normal capacity, representing an increase from the 80.2 percent reported in December 2010 and the 72.8 percent reported in April 2010, and the highest since December 2006 when operating capacity was at 84.5 percent. This is consistent with the 21-month growth trend that began in August 2009 as reported in the monthly Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®. The 10 industries reporting operating capacity levels at or above the average capacity of 83.2 percent — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.
Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives report that their organizations are currently operating at 83.7 percent of normal capacity. This is slightly higher than the 82.9 percent reported in December 2010 and the 83.6 percent reported in April 2010. The following nine industries — listed in order — are operating at capacity levels above the average rate of 83.7 percent: Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Information; Other Services; Utilities; and Health Care & Social Assistance.
|
Operating Rate |
||||||||||||||||||||
| Manufacturing | Non-Manufacturing | |||||||||||||||||||
|
April |
Dec |
April |
April |
Dec |
April |
|||||||||||||||
| 90%+ | 25% | 36% | 47% | 46% | 45% | 49% | ||||||||||||||
| 50%-89% | 62% | 60% | 50% | 51% | 52% | 49% | ||||||||||||||
| Below 50% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | ||||||||||||||
| Est. Overall Average | 72.8% | 80.2% | 83.2% | 83.6% | 82.9% | 83.7% | ||||||||||||||
PRODUCTION CAPACITY
Manufacturing
Production capacity in manufacturing is expected to increase 8.1 percent in 2011. This increase is greater than the 5.2 percent increase predicted in December 2010 for 2011, and the 7.5 percent increase reported in December for 2010. This reflects the continuing strength in the sector as 45 percent of respondents expect an average capacity increase of 18.6 percent, 3 percent expect decreases averaging 10.3 percent, and 52 percent expect no change. The 15 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2011 — listed in order — are: Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
| Manufacturing Production Capacity | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| For 2010 | For 2011 | For 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||
|
Reported |
Magnitude of |
Predicted |
Magnitude of |
Predicted |
Magnitude of |
|||||||||||||||||
| Higher | 43% | +21.1% | 49% | +12.4% | 45% | +18.6% | ||||||||||||||||
| Same | 51% | NA | 46% | NA | 52% | NA | ||||||||||||||||
| Lower | 6% | -22.5% | 5% | -16.4% | 3% | -10.3% | ||||||||||||||||
| Net Average | +7.5% | +5.2% | +8.1% | |||||||||||||||||||
Non-Manufacturing
The capacity to produce products or provide services in the non-manufacturing sector is expected to increase 2 percent during 2011. This compares to an increase of 0.5 percent reported for 2010 and a prediction in December 2010 for the same increase of 2 percent for 2011. For 2011, 24 percent of non-manufacturing respondents expect their capacity to increase by an average of 10.2 percent, and 4 percent of the respondents foresee their capacity decreasing by an average of 11 percent. Seventy-two percent expect no change in their capacity. The 11 industries expecting to add to their production capacity in 2011 — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Utilities; Educational Services; Mining; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; and Finance & Insurance.
| Non-Manufacturing Production or Provision Capacity | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| For 2010 | For 2011 | For 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||
|
Reported |
Magnitude of |
Predicted |
Magnitude of |
Predicted |
Magnitude of |
|||||||||||||||||
| Higher | 22% | +11.1% | 25% | +10.6% | 24% | +10.2% | ||||||||||||||||
| Same | 64% | NA | 68% | NA | 72% | NA | ||||||||||||||||
| Lower | 14% | -14.4% | 7% | -10.5% | 4% | -11.0% | ||||||||||||||||
| Net Average | +0.5% | +2.0% | +2.0% | |||||||||||||||||||
PREDICTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES — 2011 vs. 2010
Manufacturing
Survey respondents expect a 17.9 percent increase in capital expenditures in 2011. This is greater than the December 2010 forecast when members predicted an increase of 14.5 percent for 2011. Currently, 39 percent of respondents predict increased capital expenditures in 2011, with an average increase of 53.3 percent, while the 11 percent who said their capital spending would decrease expect an average decrease of 28.9 percent. Fifty percent say they will spend the same in 2011 as they did in 2010. The 13 industries expecting increases in capital expenditures in 2011 compared to 2010 — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives are expecting to increase their level of capital expenditures 1.4 percent in 2011 compared to 2010. The 28 percent of members expecting to spend more predict an average increase of 21.2 percent. An additional 25 percent of respondents anticipate a decrease averaging 17.9 percent. Forty-seven percent of the respondents expect to spend the same on capital expenditures in 2011 as in 2010. The 12 industries expecting an increase in capital expenditures in 2011 from 2010 — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Information; Construction; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; and Accommodation & Food Services.
| Predicted Capital Expenditures 2011 vs. 2010 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Manufacturing | Non-Manufacturing | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Predicted |
Predicted |
Magnitude of |
Predicted |
Predicted |
Magnitude of |
|||||||||||||||
| Higher | 50% | 39% | +53.3% | 42% | 28% | +21.2% | ||||||||||||||
| Same | 38% | 50% | NA | 42% | 47% | NA | ||||||||||||||
| Lower | 12% | 11% | -28.9% | 16% | 25% | -17.9% | ||||||||||||||
| Net Average | +17.9% | +1.4% | ||||||||||||||||||
PRICES — Changes Between End of 2010 and April 2011
Manufacturing
In the December 2010 forecast, respondents predicted an increase of 2.7 percent in prices paid during the first four months of 2011; however, they now report prices have increased 6.1 percent for the period. The 85 percent who say their prices are higher now than at the end of 2010 report an average increase of 7.4 percent, while the 5 percent who report lower prices report an average decrease of 3.8 percent. The remaining 10 percent indicate no change for the period. All 18 manufacturing industries reported increases in prices paid for the first part of 2011, and those industries — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; and Printing & Related Support Activities.
Non-Manufacturing
Non-Manufacturing respondents report that their purchases in the first four months of this year cost an average of 4.1 percent more than they cost at the end of 2010. This is 1.6 percentage points higher than the 2.5 percent increase predicted in December 2010 for 2011. Seventy-four percent of the non-manufacturing respondents report the prices they paid increased an average of 5.8 percent in the first part of 2011. Four percent report price decreases averaging 4.3 percent. The remaining 22 percent indicate no change in prices in the first four months of 2011. The 17 industries reporting an increase in prices paid in the first part of 2011 — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Other Services; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Information; and Educational Services.
| Prices – Changes Between End of 2010 and April 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Manufacturing | Non-Manufacturing | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Predicted |
Reported |
Magnitude of |
Predicted |
Reported |
Magnitude |
|||||||||||||||
| Higher | 68% | 85% | +7.4 | 65% | 74% | +5.8% | ||||||||||||||
| Same | 20% | 10% | NA | 28% | 22% | NA | ||||||||||||||
| Lower | 12% | 5% | -3.8% | 7% | 4% | -4.3% | ||||||||||||||
| Net Average | +2.7% | +6.1% | +2.5% | +4.1% | ||||||||||||||||
PRICES — Predicted Changes Between End of 2010 and End of 2011
Manufacturing
When asked to predict 2011 price changes, 83 percent of respondents expect the prices they pay to increase by 9.1 percent compared to the end of 2010. At the same time, 5 percent anticipate decreases averaging 4.1 percent. Including the 12 percent who expect no change in prices, survey respondents expect net average prices to increase 7.4 percent for the entire year of 2011, indicating that prices are expected to rise an additional 1.3 percent for the remainder of the year. Overall, the expectation is for much higher average prices than the 4 percent increase anticipated in December 2010 for 2011. All 18 manufacturing industries are predicting increases in prices for all of 2011, and those industries — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
Non-Manufacturing
For 2011, non-manufacturing respondents expect the prices they pay to increase 4.7 percentage points when compared to the prices at the end of 2010. Given that respondents have reported that prices have increased 4.1 percent through April 2011, the prediction is for prices to increase an additional 0.6 percent over the remainder of the year. Eighty-one percent of the respondents anticipate price increases averaging 6.4 percent. Seven percent of the respondents expect price decreases of 7.4 percent, and 12 percent do not expect prices to change. The 17 industries expecting price increases in 2011 — listed in order — are: Construction; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Mining; Public Administration; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; and Information.
| Prices – Predicted Changes Between End of 2010 and End of 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Manufacturing | Non-Manufacturing | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Predicted |
Predicted |
Magnitude |
Predicted |
Predicted |
Magnitude |
|||||||||||||||
| Higher | 75% | 83% | +9.1% | 71% | 81% | +6.4% | ||||||||||||||
| Same | 14% | 12% | NA | 21% | 12% | NA | ||||||||||||||
| Lower | 11% | 5% | -4.1% | 8% | 7% | -7.4% | ||||||||||||||
| Net Average | +4.0% | +7.4% | +3.1% | +4.7% | ||||||||||||||||
EMPLOYMENT
Change in Overall Employment – Balance 2011
Manufacturing
ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey respondents forecast that manufacturing employment will increase 2.9 percent during the balance of 2011, with 42 percent expecting employment to be 8.4 percent higher. This is in contrast to the 8 percent who predict employment to be lower by 7.8 percent. The remaining 50 percent of respondents expect their employment levels to be unchanged for the remainder of 2011. The 14 industries reporting expectations of growth in employment during the year — listed in order — are: Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.
Non-Manufacturing
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents forecast that employment will increase 0.9 percent during the balance of 2011. For the remaining months of 2011, 26 percent expect higher levels of employment, 15 percent anticipate lower levels, and 59 percent expect their employment levels to be unchanged. The 11 industries anticipating increases in employment in the remaining months of 2011 — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Information; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; and Management of Companies & Support Services.
| Predicted Change in Overall Employment | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Manufacturing | Non-Manufacturing | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Predicted |
Balance of |
Magnitude |
Predicted |
Balance of |
Magnitude |
|||||||||||||||
| Higher | 40% | 42% | +8.4% | 27% | 26% | +6.9% | ||||||||||||||
| Same | 51% | 50% | NA | 53% | 59% | NA | ||||||||||||||
| Lower | 9% | 8% | -7.8% | 20% | 15% | -6.2% | ||||||||||||||
| Net Average | +2.9% | +0.9 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Diffusion Index | 65.5% | 67% | 53.5% | 55.5% | ||||||||||||||||
BUSINESS REVENUES
Business Revenues Comparison — 2011 vs. 2010
Manufacturing
Looking ahead, expectations are for increased revenues in 2011 as purchasing and supply management executives indicate an overall net nominal increase of 7.5 percent in business revenues for 2011 over 2010. This is a significantly greater increase than the 5.6 percent increase that was forecast in December 2010 for all of 2011, but not as much as the 7.9 percent increase reported for 2010. Sixty-eight percent of respondents say that nominal revenues (before adjusting for inflation) for 2011 will increase an average of 13.2 percent over 2010. Conversely, 12 percent say their nominal revenues will decrease an average of 13.2 percent, and the remaining 20 percent indicate no change. The 17 industries reporting expectations of growth in revenue during the year — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; and Paper Products.
| Manufacturing Business Revenues | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 vs. 2009 | 2011 vs. 2010 | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Reported |
Nominal |
Predicted |
Nominal |
Predicted |
Nominal |
|||||||||||||||
| Higher | 67% | +14.1% | 65% | +13.1% | 68% | +13.2% | ||||||||||||||
| Same | 19% | NA | 24% | NA | 20% | NA | ||||||||||||||
| Lower | 14% | -11.1% | 11% | -26.9% | 12% | -13.2% | ||||||||||||||
| Net Average | +7.9% | +5.6% | +7.5% | |||||||||||||||||
Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing respondents forecast that business revenues for 2011 will increase 2.1 percent compared to 2010. This is lower than the 3.4 percent increase predicted in December 2010 for 2011. The 50 percent of respondents forecasting better business in 2011 than in 2010 estimate an average nominal revenue increase of 9.3 percent. This is in contrast to an average nominal decrease of 14.1 percent forecast by the 18 percent who predict less business in 2011. The remaining 32 percent see no change in revenues for 2011. The 13 industries expecting an increase in revenues in 2011 — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Construction.
