Dépêches
NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 48.4%; August Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 51.3%; New Orders Index at 49.9%; Employment Index at 43.5%
Dépèche transmise le 3 septembre 2009 par Business Wire
NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 48.4%; August Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 51.3%; New Orders Index at 49.9%; Employment Index at 43.5%
TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in August, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Hotels Corporation. “The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 48.4 percent in August, 2 percentage points higher than the 46.4 percent registered in July, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the 11th consecutive month but at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 5.2 percentage points to 51.3 percent. This is the first time this index has reflected growth since September 2008. The New Orders Index increased 1.8 percentage points to 49.9 percent, and the Employment Index increased 2 percentage points to 43.5 percent. The Prices Index increased 21.8 percentage points to 63.1 percent in August, indicating a substantial increase in prices paid from July. According to the NMI, six non-manufacturing industries reported growth in August. Respondents’ comments are mixed about business conditions and the overall economy; however, there is an increase in comments indicating that there are signs of improvement going forward.”
INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)
The six industries reporting growth in August based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; and Information. The 12 industries reporting contraction in August — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Public Administration; and Retail Trade.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
- “While there are promising signs in the economy pointing toward the beginnings of a recovery, the financial services industry continues to be significantly affected by the downturn. Expectations are that the pace will begin to change by Q4 '09.” (Finance & Insurance)
- “Business is still soft due to overall economic conditions.” (Wholesale Trade)
- “There seems to be a more positive feeling about the economy.” (Educational Services)
- “Healthcare reform still has hospitals wondering how they are going to get paid at the end of the day.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
- “Occupancy shows continued strength for the summer season, still below previous years’ averages by 15% to 25%.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
- “Business steady — revenue down slightly; however, less than expected.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
- “Good first half results. Some evidence of consumers ‘trading down.’ Supplier lead times are very short.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
|
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE |
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| Index | Non-Manufacturing | Manufacturing | |||||||||||||||||
|
Series |
Series |
Percent |
Direction |
Rate of |
Trend(b) |
Series |
Series |
Percent |
|||||||||||
| NMI/PMI | 48.4 | 46.4 | +2.0 | Contracting | Slower | 11 | 52.9 | 48.9 | +4.0 | ||||||||||
|
Business Activity/
Production |
51.3 | 46.1 | +5.2 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | 61.9 | 57.9 | +4.0 | ||||||||||
| New Orders | 49.9 | 48.1 | +1.8 | Contracting | Slower | 11 | 64.9 | 55.3 | +9.6 | ||||||||||
| Employment | 43.5 | 41.5 | +2.0 | Contracting | Slower | 16 | 46.4 | 45.6 | +0.8 | ||||||||||
| Supplier Deliveries | 49.0 | 50.0 | -1.0 | Faster | From Unchanged | 1 | 57.1 | 52.0 | +5.1 | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 43.0 | 47.0 | -4.0 | Contracting | Faster | 12 | 34.4 | 33.5 | +0.9 | ||||||||||
| Prices | 63.1 | 41.3 | +21.8 | Increasing | From Decreasing | 1 | 65.0 | 55.0 | +10.0 | ||||||||||
| Backlog of Orders | 41.0 | 42.0 | -1.0 | Contracting | Faster | 13 | 52.5 | 50.0 | +2.5 | ||||||||||
| New Export Orders | 54.0 | 47.5 | +6.5 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | 55.5 | 50.5 | +5.0 | ||||||||||
| Imports | 49.0 | 45.0 | +4.0 | Contracting | Slower | 10 | 49.5 | 50.0 | -0.5 | ||||||||||
| Inventory Sentiment | 67.5 | 62.5 | +5.0 | Too High | Faster | 147 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||
| Customers’ Inventories | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 39.0 | 42.5 | -3.5 | ||||||||||
(a) Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
(b) Number of months moving in current direction
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Airfares(c); Beef; Cheese; Copper Wire; #1 Diesel Fuel; #2 Diesel Fuel; Fuel; Gasoline; and Polyethylene Film.
Commodities Down in Price
Airfares(c); Juice; Natural Gas (4); and Office Supplies (2).
Commodities in Short Supply
No commodities were reported in short supply for the second consecutive month.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
(c) Reported as both up and down in price.
AUGUST 2009 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index)
In August, the NMI registered 48.4 percent, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate compared to July’s reading of 46.4 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.
NMI HISTORY
| Month | NMI | Month | NMI | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Aug 2009 | 48.4 | Feb 2009 | 41.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Jul 2009 |
46.4 | Jan 2009 | 42.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jun 2009 | 47.0 | Dec 2008 | 40.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| May 2009 | 44.0 | Nov 2008 | 37.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Apr 2009 | 43.7 | Oct 2008 | 44.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mar 2009 | 40.8 | Sep 2008 | 50.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Average for 12 months – 43.9
High – 50.0 Low – 37.4 |
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Business Activity
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in August registered 51.3 percent, an increase of 5.2 percentage points when compared to the 46.1 percent registered in July. Seven industries reported increased business activity, and 10 industries reported decreased activity for the month of August. One industry reported no change from July. Comments from respondents include: “New product launch” and “Increased pace of product development activity.”
The industries reporting growth of business activity in August — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; and Public Administration. The industries reporting decreased business activity in August — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; and Utilities.
| Business Activity | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Index | |||||||||||||||||
| Aug 2009 | 28 | 44 | 28 | 51.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Jul 2009 | 19 | 53 | 28 | 46.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Jun 2009 | 28 | 50 | 22 | 49.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| May 2009 | 20 | 52 | 28 | 42.4 |
New Orders
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index contracted in August for the 11th consecutive month. The index registered 49.9 percent, which is an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the 48.1 percent registered in July. Comments from respondents include: “Fewer request and needs” and “Departments reducing their spending/budget.”
The seven industries reporting growth of new orders in August — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; and Wholesale Trade. The nine industries reporting contraction of new orders in August — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; and Utilities.
| New Orders | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Index | |||||||||||||||||
| Aug 2009 | 27 | 46 | 27 | 49.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Jul 2009 | 22 | 52 | 26 | 48.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Jun 2009 | 29 | 45 | 26 | 48.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| May 2009 | 23 | 51 | 26 | 44.4 |
Employment
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in August for the 19th time in the last 20 months. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for August registered 43.5 percent. This reflects an increase of 2 percentage points when compared to the 41.5 percent registered in July. Two industries reported increased employment, 12 industries reported decreased employment, and four industries reported unchanged employment compared to July. Comments from respondents include: “Ongoing cost reduction efforts” and “Not refilling vacancies.”
The industries reporting an increase in employment in August are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in August — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Public Administration; Retail Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.
| Employment | %Higher | %Same | %Lower | Index | |||||||||||||||||
| Aug 2009 | 8 | 68 | 24 | 43.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Jul 2009 | 13 | 61 | 26 | 41.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Jun 2009 | 13 | 64 | 23 | 43.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| May 2009 | 13 | 58 | 29 | 39.0 |
Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 49 percent in August, indicating supplier deliveries were faster in August when compared to July. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The six industries reporting slower deliveries in August — listed in order — are: Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; and Wholesale Trade. The five industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in August are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Educational Services; and Public Administration.
| Supplier Deliveries | %Slower | %Same | %Faster | Index | ||||||||||||||||
| Aug 2009 | 7 | 84 | 9 | 49.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Jul 2009 | 8 | 84 | 8 | 50.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| Jun 2009 | 3 | 86 | 11 | 46.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| May 2009 | 7 | 86 | 7 | 50.0 |
Inventories
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index registered 43 percent in August, indicating that inventory levels contracted in August for the 12th consecutive month. Of the total respondents in August, 30 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Driving managers to reduce and maintain at lower levels” and “Rundown in inventory [in August] due to slow July.”
The four industries reporting an increase in inventories in August are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The 10 industries reporting decreases in inventories in August — listed in order — are: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; and Transportation & Warehousing.
