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NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 50.6%; October Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 55.2%; New Orders Index at 55.6%; Employment Index at 41.1%

Dépèche transmise le 4 novembre 2009 par Business Wire

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector expanded in October for the second consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Hotels Corporation. “The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 50.6 percent in October, 0.3 percentage point lower than the 50.9 percent registered in September, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month, but at a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 0.1 percentage point to 55.2 percent. This is the third consecutive month this index has reflected growth since September 2008. The New Orders Index increased 1.4 percentage points to 55.6 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 3.2 percentage points to 41.1 percent. The Prices Index increased 4.2 percentage points to 53 percent in October, indicating an increase in prices paid from September. According to the NMI, nine non-manufacturing industries reported growth in October. Respondents’ comments remain mixed and are mostly cautious about business conditions and the overall economy.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)

The nine industries reporting growth in October based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Utilities; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. The seven industries reporting contraction in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; and Information.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

“General economic tone is still ‘wait and see.’ Capital outlays are postponed for durable goods.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
“Cost-cutting efforts continue.” (Transportation & Warehousing)
“Overall business activity increasing — forecast even better market conditions in the coming months.” (Construction)
“Business climate remains encouraging, but recovery will remain slow in rebounding.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
“The weakening U.S. dollar contributing to upward pressure on commodity prices.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS(a) OCTOBER 2009

Index		Non-Manufacturing												Manufacturing
	Series Index Oct.		Series Index Sept.		Percent Point Change		Direction		Rate of Change		Trend(b) (Months)		Series Index Oct.		Series Index Sept.		Percent Point Change

NMI/PMI		50.6		50.9		-0.3		Growing		Slower		2		55.7		52.6		+3.1
Business Activity/ Production		55.2		55.1		+0.1		Growing		Faster		3		63.3		55.7		+7.6
New Orders		55.6		54.2		+1.4		Growing		Faster		2		58.5		60.8		-2.3
Employment		41.1		44.3		-3.2		Contracting		Faster		18		53.1		46.2		+6.9
Supplier Deliveries		50.5		50.0		+0.5		Slowing		From Unchanged		1		56.9		58.0		-1.1
Inventories		43.0		47.5		-4.5		Contracting		Faster		14		46.9		42.5		+4.4
Prices		53.0		48.8		+4.2		Increasing		From Decreasing		1		65.0		63.5		+1.5
Backlog of Orders		53.5		51.5		+2.0		Growing		Faster		2		53.5		53.5		0.0
New Export Orders		53.5		48.5		+5.0		Growing		From Contracting		1		55.5		55.0		+0.5
Imports		46.0		51.5		-5.5		Contracting		From Growing		1		51.0		52.0		-1.0
Inventory Sentiment		63.5		62.0		+1.5		Too High		Faster		149		N/A		N/A		N/A
Customers’ Inventories		N/A		N/A		N/A		N/A		N/A		N/A		38.5		39.0		-0.5

(a) Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

(b) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Cheese (3); Fuel; Masks (for TB/H1N1 use); and Stretch Film.

Commodities Down in Price

Alloys; Beef; Chicken; Gasoline (2); Pork (2); and Steel Pipe.

Commodities in Short Supply

Masks (for TB/H1N1 use); and Printer Cartridges.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

OCTOBER 2009 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index)

In October, the NMI registered 50.6 percent, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month since August 2008. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

NMI HISTORY

Month	NMI	Month	NMI

Oct 2009	50.6	Apr 2009	43.7
Sep 2009	50.9	Mar 2009	40.8
Aug 2009	48.4	Feb 2009	41.6
Jul 2009	46.4	Jan 2009	42.9
Jun 2009	47.0	Dec 2008	40.1
May 2009	44.0	Nov 2008	37.4
Average for 12 months – 44.5 High – 50.9 Low – 37.4

Business Activity

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in October registered 55.2 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point when compared to the 55.1 percent registered in September. Nine industries reported increased business activity, and seven industries reported decreased activity for the month of October. Two industries reported no change from September. Comments from respondents include “New customer requirements” and “New business and new capital projects.”

The industries reporting growth of business activity in October — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Construction; Mining; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The industries reporting decreased business activity in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; and Information.

Business Activity	%Higher	%Same	%Lower	Index

Oct 2009	25	58	17	55.2
Sep 2009	25	56	19	55.1
Aug 2009	28	44	28	51.3
Jul 2009	19	53	28	46.1

New Orders

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in October for the second consecutive month. The index registered 55.6 percent, which is an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the 54.2 percent registered in September. Comments from respondents include: “Some customers have capital budget money to spend before year-end” and “Stocking up on critical supplies.”

The nine industries reporting growth of new orders in October — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; and Finance & Insurance. The eight industries reporting contraction of new orders in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Information.

New Orders	%Higher	%Same	%Lower	Index

Oct 2009	25	58	17	55.6
Sep 2009	25	54	21	54.2
Aug 2009	27	46	27	49.9
Jul 2009	22	52	26	48.1

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in October for the 21st time in the last 22 months. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for October registered 41.1 percent. This reflects a decrease of 3.2 percentage points when compared to the 44.3 percent registered in September. Three industries reported increased employment, 12 industries reported decreased employment, and three industries reported unchanged employment compared to September. Comments from respondents include: “Recent reduction in workforce” and “It appears that there is a slowdown in new job postings and [a return to] hiring freezes again.”

The industries reporting an increase in employment in October are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Employment	%Higher	%Same	%Lower	Index

Oct 2009	5	68	27	41.1
Sep 2009	13	60	27	44.3
Aug 2009	8	68	24	43.5
Jul 2009	13	61	26	41.5

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50.5 percent in October, indicating supplier deliveries were slightly slower in October when compared to September. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The four industries reporting slower deliveries in October are: Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. The five industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in October are: Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; and Finance & Insurance.

Supplier Deliveries	%Slower	%Same	%Faster	Index

Oct 2009	6	89	5	50.5
Sep 2009	8	84	8	50.0
Aug 2009	7	84	9	49.0
Jul 2009	8	84	8	50.0

Inventories

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index registered 43 percent in October, indicating that inventory levels contracted in October for the 14th consecutive month. Of the total respondents in October, 29 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include “Still burning inventory to get in line with run rate” and “Continue to lower inventory to desired level.”

The four industries reporting an increase in inventories in October are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Information; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The nine industries reporting decreases in inventories in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; and Mining.

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Inventories	%Higher	%Same	%Lower	Index

Oct 2009	15	56	29	43.0
Sep 2009	20	55	25	47.5
Aug 2009	9	68	23	43.0
Jul 2009	18